oleman on Thu, Mar 5 at 11:20 PM
craig: I strive to enter where I can SAR if the trade is wrong.
oleman on Thu, Mar 5 at 11:36 PM
g'nite, craig. hanobi: I know this doesnt apply to you, but there are
many hereabouts who either do not know how to recognize a trend, or refuse
to recognize a trend. I said here over a year ago that most folks would
rather have other folks think they are smart than to make $$$. Trading
with the trend doesn't challenge them cufficiently, so they do somethiing
else. Of course they lose. The trend is DOWN in bonds. I think we'll see
higher bond prices this year, but the tradeable trend is down. The trend
is still UP in stocks. I think we'll see much lower stock prices this yhear,
but I bought last nite on globex at 1036 and more this am at 35 and went
flat MOC. I cant believe how anxious everyone was to sell the spoos on
their first approach to the 21 day ma from above. Of course it stopped
right there on that ma, like it has done about 99 out of the last 100 times
that it has tested that line for the first time from above in an uptrend
and gave you a quick 10 handles. But that is just too "Gump-like" for smart
people.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 0:27 AM
itsou: there's a difference in choppy trading within the range of the
previous up move that just happens to be above the ma, and powerful trending
action in new high territory. That's where we've been for 5 weeks. I dont
think yuou dan find a single time when the 21 day did not hold the first
test when the index was in new high territory and had been above the 21ma
for more than 3 weeks or so. It just dont happen. It may stab it and go
through a handle or so, but I'd just buy more. I'da stayed long today if
it weren't for the nfp number. Gotta go to sleep. Glad you're progressing.
Hope the best for you in your trading. Bhye.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 0:33 AM
itsou: straight lines and a simple ma will do you more good than all
the obv's, etc that are in TS. CHANNELING moves will give you good trades.
All those indicators in the package just make your guess a little better.
look at that rally into 2:30 today. Channel that sucker and sell it when
it breaks th e bottom ch. line for a quick 5 or 6 handles. BOTH of the
pullbacks on Tuesday channeled perfectly and woulda given you over half
the days trend. more to come.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 0:41 AM
itsou: use 5 min bars for intra-day channeling. Now, look at the month
of Feb on a 15 min chart. Several times last month price collapsed, turned
on a dime, and exploded to new highs. Put a horizontal line under those
turns and then look back to the point where the line hits previous prices.
Some of the BEST examples of REAL support I ever saw are on that Feb chart.
There are points that MUST not be violated in an uptrend for the uptrend
to continue. Look at the move up from 1/30/97 on a bigger time frame---30
or 45 min and you will see what I mean. Almost all those big reversals
up that took the public by surprise came within the range of a verhy important
15 min bar from 1 to 3 days back. This was the bar that HAD to hold for
the trend to continue. more----
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 0:50 AM
itsou: standard indicators are "one size fits all". The spoos are a
unique market. You must expand on what Gully taught you, always keeping
in mind that you are ONLY interested in how THIS market behaves. As I posted
last week, the taking out of the bottom of a substantial clear candle in
an uptrend(topx talks of it also) is a RED flag. Ytd, we did that. today
they slammed it down. taking out the top of a black candle is a buy signal(topx
knows this one, too). You've had half a dozen or more of these in this
upmove. EVERY one worked. Taking out the bottom of a black candle after
a downmove and then closing UP on the day is one of the vbest buy signals
there is. There are several between 8/8/97 and 1/12/98. Look for what matters.
That junk on the buttons in your trade program wont make you $$$. Learning
how this market behaves will. You know that, cause Gully told you so. Good
luck. I'm typing in my sleep. gotta go. bye for sure.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 0:59 AM
itsou: p.s. we ARE in a correction. the damage of the last 30 hours
must be repaired. Could happen tomorrow, nesxt week or next month, but
we will see tTues high again soon. l , IMO. Now I am gone
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 1:02 AM
hope: I'm too sleepy to type, but I'll answer this last: The large clear
candlw thate breaks out of a range, or blasts off a bottom is VERY important.
Price will come back to the top of it time after time--in every mkt. in
all time frames, especially spoos. gone for real this time..........really!
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 7:08 AM
hum1:Thanks for the compliment on my pm posts. I have been hesitant
to post any jewels lately for fear that some liberal lurker may pounce
upon them and profit thereby, then increase his/her donation to the DNC.
Extensive rumination has relieved that anxiety, since it is not possible
that anyone smart enough to be a liberal Klintonista would pay ANY attention
to my simple "Forrest Gump" approach. Can you imagine someone who knows
as much as, say, Bondzai/Brkout, entering a trade based on something as
simple as a straight line or a simple moving average? Aint gonna happen.
Noway. Nohow.:)
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 7:38 AM
swtrans: It sure is easier to trade now that spoos have decoupled from
bonds. And Stocks have decoupled from earnings. And spoos have decoupled
from stocks. Yup, it was especially tough sledding back when spoos, stocks,
bonds and earnings were all related.:)
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 7:41 AM
sw: I been waitin all my trading life for the day when I only had to
look at ONE indicator for overall market direction, and I finally lived
long enough to get there. Slick's approval rating in the polls is the ONLY
number that matters now. When spoos decouple from THAT, the party's over.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 7:45 AM
I expect Klinton's popularity AND this bull market to peak some time
in the fall, somewhere in the mid-90's. Gotta get above 91%, cuz Bush once
got that high. I figure that 2 more molestations in the oval office, or
1 forcible rape, or 1 homosexual encounter, or one sneak attack on a small
country will get him there.:)
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 7:54 AM
sw: close your eyes and buy in size. This market, like Maria B., will
NEVER go down on you.:)
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 8:10 AM
pivot: The Bear market of '98 is over. Gotta be over. Further drops
in stock prices would mean me and hum and topx would lose money and Hillary
would have to make up a whole new set of lies. Cant allow that to happen.:)
swtrans on Fri, Mar 6 at 1:52 PM
after today, i will never do another Vodoo Wave post. so here is what
vodoo is saying: #1 as for the pattern, on the daily charts i was looking
for a big day down, then a big day up, then the next session was the intraday
high of the swing. #2 weekly pattern says next week should be strong and
the next week be the intraday high. #3 Vodoo oscillators are in the pefect
formation for a real sell, although not quite there yet. the oscillators
give different degrees of sell, this is in the pattern that is for real
(it has to close here though, so a sell can take away alot of that pressure).
temple on Fri, Mar 6 at 2:03 PM
freddy ... I have counts very similar to other EWavers, but they are
not my primary count. You gotta read the commentary at my site to understand
the "roadmap" approach I take to EWave. Major difference in my stuff appears
to be based on the following: I build my maps from the bottom up, and not
from the top down. I start at the 2-minute and work up to the Monthly.
My free site shows the 2.5 hr and up. It does not show the 2-min, 6-min,
18-min, 50-min charts, which "create" one another (from bottom 2-min and
then on up). I really don't make many decisions. The charts just show me
what has happened and I project it into what might happen. I take the best
guess and make that my dominant road map. I follow it ruthlessly, with
no emotion, until it starts to run into problems (which I affectionately
call roadkill ... basic T/A which says the roadmap is running out of gas).
Then I jump out of the car(s) and get a new roadmap. I have not gotten
out of the car for almost 2 months. The view is magnificent on this particular
highway. Hope that explains a bit. My site is at site link
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 3:18 PM
colby: Since this bar went above 7.80, I can now say it. For the first
time in my life, I bought the first bar and it was the lowest bar, and
sold the last bar and it was the highest. Come and get me, Lord. I'm ready
to go!:)
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 3:23 PM
colby: if the first bar gaps and closes above the previous day's high,
you either have a runaway day or a wicked reversal most of the time.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 3:25 PM
lowery: I wouldnt argue with you on your date. I expect some kinda high
nest week myself. But this thing could be 30 handles higher on Monday and
50 higher on Tuesday.
oleman on Fri, Mar 6 at 3:27 PM
I still say that, when you really analyze what happened sinc e the rth
close on Wednesday, it was the most merciless bear slaughter in the history
of the Spoos.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 9:49PM CST (-0600 GMT)
cbcat: Got more mail than I could ever answer. Dont know whhy I get
so much mail. Guess fokes dont know they can just get on ski's list and,
as sw's hero, C. Williams said, "just lay back and enjoy it.":) Answer,
idnr4, 80-20, and TS. Just take those 3 and trade them for 6 months. Nothing
else. And DONT read any more books. lSome fokes can quote from books till
the cows come home, but couldnt take a dollar out of the market to save
their life. Bondzai knows what's in every trading book there is. I know
what's in 'em, too.----------Words.:)
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 9:51PM CST (-0600 GMT)
cbpussycat: IDNR4 would have got you long on 1/27/97---about 100 handles
ago. Lots of fokes read that book. Wonder how many of 'em did that?:)
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 9:53PM CST (-0600 GMT)
cat" TS would've got you long on the intra-day chart on 2/5, about 50
handles ago. Lotsa fokes read it, how many you think did that?:)
topxprt . . Sun, Mar 8, 9:57PM CST (-0600 GMT)
another dead body around Bill Clinton. When I found out McDougal had
died, I told my wife, "I bet he died of a heart attack, nice, easy believable
way to ice McDougal through undetectable and untraceable drugs" So I checked
the story, sure enough, dead of a heart attack. When oh when are the stupid
a***s in this country going to wake up? in and out
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 9:58PM CST (-0600 GMT)
acbcat: 80-20 woulda got you long on 1/12/98, about 125 handles ago.
Lotsa fokes read the book. Wonder how many of 'em did that?.) You now know
ALL you need to know to take a fortune out of the market. Now use it. Just
those and nothing else. And DONT read no more books. You read more books
and you might be a pretty good 16 hour a day chatter, but it'll screw up
your trading, sure as shootin.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:04PM CST (-0600 GMT)
cb: If you enter off a daily chart, you're in a position. You stay in
till the daily shows you something that gets you out. If you got long on
1/12, you should still be long.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:08PM CST (-0600 GMT)
notop: IDNR4 is a day that is the shortest in range of the last 4 days
and is an "inside" day. 1/26 was one. ou go with it in whatever direction
it breaks the next day. 1/27 went out the top. 1/9 opened above the 80%
level of the day's range, and closed in the bottom 20% of the day's range.
When 1/12 closed back inside the 80-20 day's range, it was a buy.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:29PM CST (-0600 GMT)
pt78: Well said. Nobody's gonna make a living out of the market by depending
on somebody else. You may ppick up something from me or someone else that
you can use. But it must incorporated into your own system. And you must
trust your system emough to rely on it, no matter what the loudest or,
even the BEST, for that matter, chatter on Avid says. If you USE some of
the simple methods I've posted here in yhour system, they could make you
a better trader. But, if you enter a trade because I say I think such and
such is a good trade, It'll be one of the many times I'm wrong, sure as
shootin. Gotta do it for yourself in this game. It WONT work any other
way. That's why I love the market.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:32PM CST (-0600 GMT)
pt78: That's also why liberals cant make money trading. It aint a benign
environment for egalitarians, and egalitarianism is the bedrock principle
of liberalism. Another reason why I love the market. :)
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:36PM CST (-0600 GMT)
pt78: Hope that little "u" my keyboard put in there didnt make you think
I was referring to you. Liberals are good at running MF's and hedge funds,
etc., cause they are then using OTHER people's money. But to sit down at
a monitor and risk their OWN money successfully against that "Hard Right
Edge" aint their cup of tea. God! I love this market!
samurai . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:43PM CST (-0600 GMT)
the only ones who can make a buck from the casinos are those that have
trained themselves to beat the odds ... and no matter how hard they try
it's almost immpossible to impart their wisdom to the masses ...only a
few will ever be sucessful and make oney at it ....index and currency traders
ain't no different
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:47PM CST (-0600 GMT)
sw: 3:00pm on 1/30/98, on the 15 min chart is a Turtle Soup. Catches
the big gap up. There are about half a dozen on the 15 min since then.
Should only use it when it occurs during a corrective move, so it puts
you in the market when the trend resumes. I DOES call the top sometimes,
but you gotta be sure the move is approaching exhaustion, or your head
will be handed to you.
I'm talking about TS on the 15 min intraday chart.
swtrans . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:50PM CST (-0600 GMT)
so turtle soup is a double top or bottom about 20 bars apart
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:51PM CST (-0600 GMT)
lotsa good TS trades at the tops during February, on the 15 min. Course
you coulda sold it EVERY time it made a new high and failed to make a new
15 min high after that. Course, that's too simple.:)
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:52PM CST (-0600 GMT)
sw: Its a FORM of a double bottom. The second bottom goes slightly lower,
but closes HIGHER. Opposite for a top.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 10:58PM CST (-0600 GMT)
I've always wanted to say something here, but have held back because
i didnt want to be the proximate cause of the bankruptcy of the uninitaited.
But Samurai is right. They aint gonna make it because of me, and they aint
gonna bust out because of me. So here goes: In intra-day trading, the easiest
and fastest money I make is in counter trend trading. Mr. market takes
2 days to go up 20 handles, then gives you 8 of them back in 15 or 20 minutes,
if you know how to catch them. Takes $$ and cajones. I aint gonna discuss
the technique, cause it is death if you aint right. Samurai does it all
the time, and a lotta folks think he just couldnt be doin that. I havent
talked about it for the reasons posted, but it CAN be done, and all the
BEST traders do it. I made more daytrading $$ in Feb. being shnort than
long. There. No more will be said on that subject.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:11PM CST (-0600 GMT)
barb: Seriously, Richard Dennis made several hundred million back in
the old commodity bull years by entering ALL markets on EVERY 20 day breakout.
He called it the "Turtle" method. It works, if you got enough $$$ to stand
the drawdowns, which can exceed 50%. It backtests profitable for EVERY
breakout period from 13 to 99 days. The prime source of the drawdowns,
is the market's penchant for "stop running" on one side of a congestion,
then turning immediatelhy and going thru the congestion and out the other
side, thereby making "Soup" out of the "Turtles" who bought the fakeout
breakout. Thus the name,"Turtle Soup.:) And that's the truth.:)
maxx . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:25PM CST (-0600 GMT)
oleman: if you are still around, I want to add to that "turtle soup"
thing...my observation is that it usual occurs in asending triangle (up
first then down) or decending triangle (down first then up), and happens
mostly likely around 1:30-3:00EDT timeframe. Your thought..:)
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:32PM CST (-0600 GMT)
hope1: Like Ms. Lewinsky, I stand by everything I said. For now.:) I'm
not going to facilitate the process, because, even though the posts were
put into the public domain, they were intended for the edification of the
chat participants. Its ok that some folks have saved them. But, for folks
who were not participants in those chats, or were too lazy to save them,
to now get them all at once, is not fair, IMO, to either the chat participants
who read them when posted( and possibly saved them) or to myself. I really
do get a feeling that some folks may be using both you and me. But you
can do what you think is right, cause, as I said, it wont do most of them
any good anyway.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:34PM CST (-0600 GMT)
maxx: Yup. They are mostly a p.m. phenomenon. The later the better,
actually, cause they give you some humongous gaps. Nice to make several
handles while you sleep. See 1/30 and 2/5, for example.
oleman . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:37PM CST (-0600 GMT)
jcf: If it comes back past the low/high of the "Soup" bar, yhou gotta
be out. It'll do it frequently on the 5 min or smaller chart, but the 15
min is about as close to perfect as you can get. About like ski's 87%.:)
hope1 . . Sun, Mar 8, 11:43PM CST (-0600 GMT)
ole, i hear you. i jus hope that some of them will use those profitably
as I attest to them I did. The SAR method is most difficult to apply but
when properly used actually limits risk if one is wrong while allow for
a recoup of loss and more by reversing. If one does not know how and where
to use SAR one can cause himself pain from time to time. So I used a couple
of real trades I did on Fri to demo SAR on charts. I actually traded against
the trend twice on Fri and net +3.30 on those
