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Gold -- Sharefin, 07:29:13 05/08/03 Thu

Gold Investment Demand On The Rise

Last week CPM Group announced that gold investment demand had hit a 35-year high. Also announced last week was the proposed listing in Toronto of Central Gold Manager's Gold-Trust. A closed-end fund which will invest at least 90% of its assets in physical, allocated, 400oz bars. The fund will be in part managed by the team from Canada's Central Gold Fund and Eric Sprott and John Embry from Sprott Asset Management.

The gold bar doesn't stop there...

Wednesday 7th May, Gold Corporation (the Perth Mint) announced it would list on the Australian Stock Exchange a gold-backed warrant (Code: "ZAUWBA") which entitles the holder to exercise a call warrant to receive 1/100th of one ounce of gold bullion.

2 gold-backed securities in 7 days... 3 gold-backed securities in 6 weeks... gold investment demand on the rise... and the US$ gold price is rising. I will let you make your own conclusions.

What will happen when the Chinese get their product up and running in what is expected to be the next couple of months?

Increasing Demand:

Gold Bullion Limited (ASX Code: "GOLD") listed its gold-backed security in Australia about 6 weeks ago. Since then the fund size has been growing at an increasing rate. Last week it traded A$8.7 million - the second most liquid gold stock on the ASX on that day. The fund now has over 50,000 ounces of physical gold bullion. That might seem a small number to some but with gold investment demand changing and equity demand volatile at best, 50,000 ounces is but a drop in a potential ocean. A small gold company would be happy to produce 50,000 ounces in one year and yet this demand has come from investors without a significant marketing campaign yet.

Exchange Traded Funds & Gold

These new gold-backed funds are merely gold ETFs. ETFs have exploded on to the global investment markets with products in almost every asset class, on every major exchange and in every sector. There is potential for other commodity ETF's to be listed as well however, liquidity, fungibility and ease of storage are critical to the product. Try storing $100 million of wool! That amount in gold will fit under your desk. Again, it is no coincidence that ETF's are the cheapest and most liquid investments being traded these days.

What investors will be looking for in a gold-backed security:

1. Accessibility - tradeable by anyone, in any amount, and on an established exchange;

2. Ownership in the gold - this helps to reduce the risk of the investment, gives the investor the sense they own physical gold, and investors want to have ownership (or at least legal title and ownership) of the physical gold as a store of wealth;

3. Liquidity (and minimal tracking error) - as with the original equity-index ETF's, liquidity needs to backed by a creation/redemption feature to allow trading in the ETF or the actual physical itself. Otherwise the ETF's liquidity will be a poor substitute for the product it is trying to mimic; and

4. Everyone's favourite - fees. Fees need to be rock bottom to encourage investors to trade these products. Prohibitively high fees, as with managed funds which are in the order of 2%+ p.a., do not allow investor and traders to hold these product short-term and again, they will revert to the physical if the substitute is poor.

All in all, this is an exciting time for the gold market and the timing is right given the explosion of alternative investments and ETF's globally.

Mark -- Cyclist, 20:00:32 05/07/03 Wed

If the 30 year bonds dip belStagflation or deflation is the 64m question.ow the 4.6 % ,IMO
we will see deflation starting to solidify. On the other hand, through massive monetization on a global scale by the central bankers we might see stagflation with deflation eventually as the final solution
The global community and especially the American consumer
is saturated with debt of historic proportion.The central bankers have poisoned the well .The collapse of the dollar is going to slow down as other countries will be competitive in their currency depreciation as well.
When this situation occurs physical gold will start to get
pricing power .There will be no run on the banks but a run into gold.
Deflation is the natural hang over after a credit binge and/or capital misallocation.
Both situations have played out on a massive scale and the piper have to be payed.
All the above are FWIW

For Cyclist - About Deflation -- Mark, 13:53:43 05/07/03 Wed

Deflation - Not gonna happen. No way - no how. Dollar is headed much lower for the next several years. Study the historical charts of the dollar and then you'll understand why.

June bonds -- Cyclist, 08:31:41 05/07/03 Wed

ready to break out ,116 is the number.
This will be the signal ,a flight to treasuries and the start of Deflation.
More important the cash bond sitting at 4.7 ,close to the
4.6%.The Fed will be trying the throw liquidity into the market by keeping the rate above.
Interesting times.

four day drop -- Cyclist, 08:18:21 05/07/03 Wed

This purge will last for 4 days.To reposition for the last
run up..:)

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:52:08 05/07/03 Wed

Dehedging not slackening off

While the practice of reducing gold hedge books was widely predicted to continue in 2003, the level of unwinding activity wasn't expected to be as pronounced as last year. But that hasn't been the case so far, and that's been good news for the gold price.
According to leading global gold analyst, associate director of metals and mining at Macquarie Bank, Kamal Naqvi, the rate of dehedging in the March 2003 quarter appears to have mirrored that of the final two quarters of calendar 2002. And with some gold producers - including the biggest, Newmont Mining Corp - yet to report their March quarter results, the eventual total volume of dehedging for the quarter may actually signify a slight acceleration.

Unveiling of further pro-active dehedging undertaken this year, even by the most avid hedgers such as Barrick Gold and Sons of Gwalia, worked in favour of the gold price last week, which bounced back above US$340 an ounce for the first time in about six weeks. The big decline in the global hedge book was undoubtedly one of the key developments supporting the gold price, agreed London-based research group, Gold Fields Mineral Services.

During the March 2003 quarter, Barrick, AngloGold, Placer Dome and SOG all cut their books by approximately 1 million ounces or more each. Macquarie Bank estimated that the worldwide gold hedging position had been reduced by another 4.5Moz or 140 tonnes in the quarter.

And noises from the major gold producers suggest closing out of hedge contracts would be maintained at a similar intensity, in the short term at least. For instance, recently appointed Barrick chief executive, Greg Wilkins, has indicated the company intends to have a smaller - about 20 percent of reserves hedged instead of 35 percent at present - and simpler forward sales program incorporating plain vanilla spot deferred contracts.

Explaining the reason for the anticipated dehedging drop-off not happening and resilience in the gold price, Naqvi pointed out the main issues that had fuelled the wave of dehedging over the past 15 months or so still applied.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:50:16 05/07/03 Wed

Gold investment choices on the rise

One popular excuse for weak gold prices is the lack of product and distribution. It is really a coded phrase meaning that the majority of Western investors would prefer to own gold in a non-physical form.
It is not difficult to buy gold if you desire it. You can buy gold coins by mail order in most places while dealers of one sort or another dot every major city in North America, Europe and Japan. Walk in, put your money down and take home your gold. If you're a more substantial player, you can also buy futures contracts and take delivery of large lots.

For modern gold marketers the base of investors who like to buy physical gold in this way has been declining, so they have had to switch to alternatives which amount to a single thing whatever they are called - securitized gold. Whether it's GoldMoney's goldgrams, gold stocks, gold futures on Comex, precious metal mutual funds or the forty year old Central Fund of Canada [CEF], investors are buying paper that promises to represent gold in some way.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:32:26 05/07/03 Wed

New gold investment vechile.

Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product

What is PMG?
The Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product ("PMG") is essentially a right created on-market by Gold Corporation to enable you to invest in gold on the Australian Stock Exchange ("ASX"). PMG is structured as a call warrant in accordance with the ASX Business Rules. Each PMG entitles you to acquire one hundredth of a troy ounce of fine gold on or before the Expiry Date of 31 December 2013 and may be exercised by you at any time before the Expiry Date.

Gold Corporation has made an application for admission of PMG to quotation on the ASX. You will be able to acquire PMGs through your stockbroker when it is quoted on ASX. The expected quotation date is 16 May 2003.

The ASX price of the PMG is intended to track closely the international over-the-counter market spot price of gold and will be based on the market value of the gold backing a PMG at the time of purchase.

just a thought -- Cyclist, 17:12:29 05/06/03 Tue

Deflation looming, signalled by the 30 year bonds.If and when 4.6% breaks we will be moving into a runaway deflationary spiral of global proportions when credit is drying up and people scrambling for safety.
The 30 year bonds are projected to hit 2% by November.The stockmarket will be toast,with a spike down into November.
Gold will get taken down initially as well ,especially the goldstocks for lack of liquidity.
Cycles short term will give gold a high on Wednesday with a short break after, with a final
peak end of May.2004 will be the year for gold ,especially silver.
Crude is probably rebounding to 28/29 short term and looking for a low in the 19/20 support area around December.
The exception will be NG,its chart is looking very nice and ready for a major move next winter.
All the above IMO only...have a good day

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:20:55 05/05/03 Mon

Jim Sinclair: Tan Range Resources ('Mr Gold')

A very good evening to Jim Sinclair, the man the Americans call Mr Gold. Well, Mr Gold, it seems like we got you on the right day. The gold price is up nicely, $342.50 as we speak right now. Before we go into more of the broader background and where you think gold could go, Jim, what caused this last little rally?

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:14:51 05/05/03 Mon

Gold retains glitter as mine production falls

Gold may have retreated from its pre-war highs, but the bull market will persist for at least the remainder of 2003, according to research house AME Mineral Economics.

AME said a combination of political tensions, the threat of recession, the outbreak of SARS and fundamental factors would underpin the gold price.

It said tangible supply and demand factors supported a long-term price rise out to 2007.

"This includes a levelling off of mined supply, an increase in end-use fabrication, reduction in hedging activity, controlled official sector sales, deregulation of key markets and a concerted industry marketing effort to promote gold both in jewellery and as an investment."

AME's new report, GoldMine Costs 1998-2007, said a sustained period of falling exploration expenditure due to low industry profit margins would result in a fall in gold supply.

It said the estimated 2515 tonnes of gold mined last year was the lowest since 1997 and marked the first time since 1995 that annual gold production had fallen.

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:02:31 05/05/03 Mon

Gold rush hurdles cleared

China's gold market has been given another major boost with the recent abolition of policy barriers by regulators.
"The removal of the barriers will play a key role in spurring the country's gold market, and it could forge closer integration with that of the world," said Roland Wang, general manger of the China branch of the World Gold Council, an organization formed and funded by the world's leading gold mining companies with the aim of stimulating and maximizing demand and consumption of gold.

The new policy, which was released by the People's Bank of China, cancels more than 20 regulations barring gold production, processing and sales.

It loosens the central bank's control over trading in China's gold market.
But the market remains closed to individual investors.

"The founding of the SGE is the first step towards a liberalization of the gold market in China, and the abolition of the rules play a key role in reforming China's gold market in a wide range of areas, such as investment, manufacturing, processing and sales," said Wang.

China has outperformed a number of key players on the global gold market, becoming the world's third-largest gold consumer. China's gold demand reached 202.3 tons last year, putting it behind only India and the United States.
"Intensified competition will bring sweeping changes to the market, including consumption and the quality of gold products," he said.

Gold is highly valued as a precious metal in China and appreciated as a symbol of wealth.

Growth of jewellery gold consumption has slowed down in recent years after being hit by intensified competition from other forms of jewellery, such as platinum jewellery - preferred by young Chinese in particular.

China outpaced Japan to become the world's largest platinum market a few years ago.

However, experts believe the gold market will see explosive growth once it opens to individual investors as the major use of gold is still for jewellery. Statistics reveal China's demand for gold could increase by 100 tons a year after full liberalization, constituting 30 per cent of the annual increase in gold consumption in the world.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 04:58:48 05/05/03 Mon

Bernanke Renews Calls for Inflation Targets

Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke renewed his call on Saturday for the United States to join other countries and adopt an openly stated inflation target.
Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan has his doubts about inflation targeting although some other U.S. central bank officials, particularly some presidents of the regional Fed banks, share Bernanke's point of view.

"I don't want to completely unravel our monetary policy -- this is already focused on price stability. But there is a need for better communication on how decisions are reached," he said.
Bernanke went on to say he did not think the United States faced deflationary pressure.

"There is no risk of deflation at the moment," he said.

The inflation rate was low, but still positive, and the economy was growing and the banking system was healthy, he said.

"Only an extremely unlikely chain reaction of unfortunate events could increase the risk of deflation," he said, adding that should this happen, the Fed was ready to deal with it.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:57:02 05/05/03 Mon

Harmony/ARMgold to create new mining giant

A new South African mining giant has been hatched through a merger agreement between African Rainbow Minerals Gold (ARMgold) and Harmony Gold.
While the merger, announced shortly after the JSE Securities Exchange's close on Friday, is still subject to several conditions, it is highly likely the two companies will become one under a new Harmony banner.

In a statement, the two companies said the merged entity will be 26% controlled by “historically disadvantaged South Africans” and will be the world's fifth largest gold producer. “Conspicuous and distinctive emphasis” will be placed on the letters ARM to include ARMgold's identity in the new Harmony name.

The enlarged Harmony will mine more gold within South Africa than any other producer including Harmony's suite of mines, the Freegold joint venture, ARMgold's other interests and a stake in the rich Target mine owned by Avmin-controlled Avgold.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:42:39 05/05/03 Mon

Barrick's uncomfortable searchlight

Of course, 160 days is a nanosecond in the business, but shareholders were told that Barrick was hearing them loud and clear; a new broom was sweeping clean. Munk said the lagging stock price was unacceptable and seemed to agree, between the lines at least, that the company had erred with its aggressive hedging.

That was reinforced by Wilkins and other management subsequently talking about reducing the hedge book. Nevertheless, the company has continued to say exactly what Oliphant always said - that the book was flexible and unlikely to blow up at higher gold prices. Indeed, the flexibility was proved over the last quarter when the company blended contract and spot sales, whichever delivered the highest prices.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:14:43 05/05/03 Mon


An intermediate term buy signal is near. When I bring gold into the mix, not only does the cyclical picture fit but, it's outright ugly. The stock market appears to be topping at an intermediate term top. The Dollar is showing serious signs of weakness and appears to be on the brink of breaking through an intermediate term low. Gold is forming an intermediate term bottom and appears to be setting up for another advance. I expect to see a long signal within a couple of weeks and possibly sooner.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:08:03 05/05/03 Mon

Will Gold Now Pull Gold Shares Higher?

In the early stages of this new gold bull market that got underway in the latter part of 2001, shares of gold mining companies led the way. While the yellow metal itself plodded higher but in a relatively unspectacular way, gold shares soared; our recommended basket more than doubled between the Fall of 2001 and the sector's peak in June, 2002.

Since that time, however, gold shares have under performed the metal itself. Even a brief, albeit unsustainable, spike in spot gold to $390 per ounce in early February failed to bring mining shares along with it commensurately; even at that point (with gold $60 higher) the gold mining sector couldn't move above last June's levels.

Gold shares did seem ready to regain their usual role of anticipating a new upward move in gold when, back in mid-March, they bottomed and then turned higher, even as gold itself continued to decline to its recent lows a shade under $320 per ounce. Curiously, however, the gold stock sector again began to slip; first failing to move convincingly above key resistance levels and then-until the last couple days-failing as well to keep up with a gold price which suddenly has some substantial tail wind.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:02:29 05/05/03 Mon

Placer CEO Says Gold Market Finding Balance

Jay Taylor, chief executive of Placer Dome Inc. , North America's No. 3 gold producer, said on Wednesday he expects gold to trade at $320 to $360 an ounce in the short term as the market finds balance after a run-up earlier this year.

"I have always said that to have a sustainable gold industry we need $350 (an ounce) gold at least, but at $330 we're not quite there, but it is healthy enough for the industry," Taylor told Reuters.

Gold was at $339 an ounce on Wednesday, down from the 6-1/2-year high of $381.50 it reached in early February.

Taylor said he was willing to reduce Placer's gold forward sales program to about 8 million ounces, or 15 percent of gold reserves. The company said on Tuesday it had reduced the program to 11.5 million ounces and plans to take it below 10 million by the end of 2003.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:00:29 05/05/03 Mon

Gold runs, AngloGold still bullish

AngloGold would continue to be bullish about the gold price which this afternoon broke above its 200-day moving average to post its highest level in more than a month, group chief executive Bobby Godsell said today. The remarks were made only hours before bullion jumped more than $4/oz to trade in New York at $339/oz.
“There has been no recognisable liquidation of long positions by funds who have moved into gold over the past year and a half. It is the only market where funds have steadily held their long positions,” said Williams. The apparent faith in the gold market came, he said, despite the drop in the bullion price after the evaporation of the war premium, shortly after the US attacked Iraq.
“In the medium term, however, important economic factors will continue to favour gold. Most important of these are the health of the US dollar and the state of major equity markets. The US economy remains vulnerable, and the US dollar is likely to continue to lose value in the medium term,” Williams said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:01:41 05/05/03 Mon

Gold miners protest SA royalty bill

Two South African gold miners expressed opposition to government's proposed Royalty Bill yesterday, voicing concern that marginal producers especially could be adversely affected by the legislation.

Presenting financial results for the quarter ended March 31, Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) reacted negatively to government's proposed 3% royalty on gold producers' revenue.

The company's chairperson and CEO, Mark Wellesley-Wood, said the recently-released Royalty Bill would lead to increased costs, raise pay limits and decrease the life of mines.

"This will be an additional cost and will serve to sterilise gold reserves, reduce the attraction in investment in gold-mining and result in lost jobs," he said.

He added that marginal operators, such as DRD, and empowerment joint ventures are likely to be hit hard by the “unfair tax”, specifically as there would be no risk-sharing between government and mines.

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:45:58 05/05/03 Mon

'Rand will stay strong in 2003' - Godsell

AngloGold chief executive Bobby Godsell, has warned that trading conditions will remain difficult for the gold producer for the remainder of this year as currencies in the group's key operating regions remain strong against the dollar.
“Looking ahead to the rest of this year, we anticipate that the currencies in which our costs are predominantly denominated, particularly the South African rand, will maintain their strength in relation to the US dollar for the remainder of the year and have revised our planning assumptions accordingly,” Godsell said in a statement. The rand - currently priced at R7.16/$ - is at around 30 month highs to the dollar, whittling away rand-denominated income for South Africa's exporters.

AngloGold was the third of South Africa's gold producers in line for a steep drop in earnings for the March quarter, after being hit by traditional lost production after the Christmas break and the strong rand. Godsell said planned lower grades, which fell from 8.04g/t to 7.87g/t on average, had also impacted on production levels.

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:43:47 05/05/03 Mon

Rand's gain threatens gold sector jobs

Gold mining companies are heading for a crisis because of the rand's gains against the US dollar.

More than 10 000 jobs are under threat and the industry has warned that more may follow.

The grim news emerged yesterday with the March-quarter results of Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) and Harmony Gold Mining.

DRD said it was retrenching 1 000 people and two of its mines - East Rand Proprietary Mines and Hartebeesfontein - might have to close.

Harmony said further strengthening of the rand could threaten 10 000 jobs and slow down planned capital spending.

Things might get worse.

In rand terms, the gold price has plummeted from the R95 000 a kilogramme average received by most gold companies in the March quarter to a spot price of R75 000 yesterday.

This suggested that poor June-quarter figures might lead to more job losses as companies came under even more pressure, particularly those with marginal operations.

Mark Wellesley-Wood, the chairman and chief executive of DRD, said it was this environment that made mine planning and investment in South Africa very difficult.

"We cannot hold our breath ... We are having to rightsize our South African operations to remain competitive," he said.
Bernard Swanepoel, the chief executive of Harmony, said: "Now that the rand is the strongest currency in the world, South African mining companies don't look as smart."
"The rand is overly strong but one or two bad quarters will not wipe out the gold industry. There may well be job losses but it does not mean that the entire mining industry is under threat," he said.

It amazes me how the board complains yet the price is still higher than a couple of years ago.
That they complain & yet quote the top of a bubble price as a yardstick smells of chicanery - it smells Enronesque to me.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 02:31:35 05/05/03 Mon

Dollar Falls to Four-Year Low vs Euro; Economy Seen Faltering

The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than four years against the euro on speculation employment and manufacturing reports this week will highlight the U.S. economy is struggling to rebound.

The dollar dropped to $1.1127 per euro at 10:10 a.m. in London from $1.1035 yesterday. It earlier fell as low as $1.1137, the weakest since Feb. 19, 1999, and is headed for a ninth consecutive losing month against the euro. The dollar shed 5.5 percent against the euro this year and almost 19 percent in the past year. It weakened to 119.48 yen from 120.09 late yesterday.

U.S. manufacturing shrank as the world's biggest economy shed jobs this month, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect reports tomorrow and Friday to show. Concern about the economy, the current account and budget deficits, and lower interest rates than in Europe ensure the dollar won't recover soon, investors said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:24:23 05/05/03 Mon

The Washington Agreement prevents further Official supplies of gold from reaching the market! - Official Sales dwindling too low?

Contrary to market commentary, the Sales by the Portuguese Central Bank were within the terms of the Washington Agreement. Portugal is in line with their Agreement! What does this mean?

What we believe is that these sales are the most dramatic pieces of news to come out of the market for some considerable time. These factors will soon precipitate the steady, or accelerating upward path of the gold price. It is a factor that we had foreseen, but not this early in the Central Bank's timetable. We will probably see our own forecasts made conservative.

We at Gold-Authentic Money have interpreted the Washington Agreement as designed to precipitate an orderly turn in the gold market from a falling price to a rising price.

The market will now seeing confirmation of our belief that the Washington Agreement will prevent “Official” supplies reaching the market, above the 400 tonnes.

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:18:18 05/05/03 Mon

Gold investment demand hit 35-year high in 2002-CPM

The sharp rise in gold prices in 2002 boosted global investment demand for the yellow metal to a 35-year high, but cut its use in fabricated products, precious metals research firm CPM Group said on Tuesday.

In its Gold Survey 2003, CPM reported that investors bought 26.9 million ounces of gold bullion on a global net basis during 2002. That was the most in any year since 1967, more than doubling the 10 million ounces purchased the year before.

"The dynamics of the market are that investors, stimulated by international financial, economic and political conditions, raced to buy gold last year," CPM said in its report.

Spot gold finished 2002 worth about $350 an ounce, after starting last year at around $278. On Tuesday, spot was quoted at $333.45/334.15 in afternoon trade.

But the use of gold in jewelry, electronics and other fabricated products last year fell 11.2 percent to 91.5 million ounces, its steepest decline since gold prices spiked to $825 an ounce in 1980 as investors bumped consumers out of the market, CPM said.

The report also said that mined production of gold in 2002 fell 5.5 percent to about 63.1 million ounces. The research firm projected 2003 mine output of 61.7 million ounces, off 2.2 percent.

Total gold supply rose 2.2 percent last year to 106.1 million ounces, CPM said. It forecast 2003 total gold supply at 101.2 million ounces, down 4.6 percent.

The rise in prices also stimulated increased supply from scrap last year, CPM said. Secondary recovery from old jewelry and other scrap jumped 18.3 percent in 2002.

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 21:32:35 05/04/03 Sun

Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1502.88 + Dow 8582.68 = 10,085.56 divide by 2 = 5,042.78 Ponzi

Up 172.34 from last week.

The trend down is still holding. This will be an interesting week.

Thanks for the link RossL.




ChartsRus -- Sharefin, 20:50:28 05/03/03 Sat

New chart series showing yearly percentage movements.



Fiat -- Sharefin, 08:37:58 05/01/03 Thu

Time to Target Inflation

The U.S. economy, and with it the global economy, is poised on a knife-edge. Given cost-cutting and deferred capital replacement, a dramatic boost in demand growth aimed at stabilizing, even boosting, falling inflation is urgently needed to launch a sustainable global recovery. Conversely, static to weaker demand growth will lead to lower inflation or even deflation. Either outcome will force the continuation of another round of layoffs that, ominously, has already begun in the United States.
The High Price of Change

Taken altogether, the lackluster performance of the economy, the distraction of the war, and the hesitation by the Fed and other central banks, coupled with a sharp scaling back of U.S. fiscal stimulus, make it likely that by the end of this year we shall see the Fed targeting higher inflation after having been unable to avoid a U.S. double-dip recession that precipitates a global recession. Needless to say, we can all hope that this will not be the case, but history has shown that the moves by central banks to target higher inflation rates and thereby stimulate demand growth are undertaken only with the greatest reluctance, if at all.

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:04:34 04/29/03 Tue

Gold Seasonal Chart

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:11:31 04/28/03 Mon

The Washington Agreement Suddenly Gets Messy

I was surprised to learn this past week that Portugal was a signer on the Washington Agreement. Since 1999, the gold seller queue was well known to gold market participants and Portugal wasn't on it. Nevertheless here comes Banco do Portugal completely unannounced to sell ninety tonnes of gold over the last three months. The World Gold Council makes reference to the sales as resulting from previous option agreements going back to 1997 and 1998.

Reading between the lines, this translates to Portugal having its gold called away by some unknown buyer. Leaving the more generalized questions having to do with why any central bank would jeopardize its valuable gold holdings in order to draw income from a call writing program, let's concentrate on two, more vital questions (at least with respect to the gold market):
On the second, and perhaps more important, question having to do with the investor education conveyed by such maneuverings, Portugal's dalliance might be instructive more for what it reveals in the complicated overall politics of money and gold than it does with respect to the mathematics of the Washington Agreement. It cannot be overlooked that Portugal was 'called' during a period of rising gold prices and a roiled international economic and political environment. It appears that this gold fed into the market by Portugal has someone's name on it - someone interested in taking delivery, otherwise the recipient of the metal would have settled in paper, payment would have been rendered (in paper), and none of us would have been the wiser. No. . .someone wanted this gold and if they are holding any more Portuguese gold paper, they are likely to want more. It is unlikely thatPortugal's gold will see the light of day for the interim, or at least until the developing international monetary and political crisis has blown over.

The situation with Portugal's gold tells more about how 'the players' see the world of gold and money than a treatise on the subject, and sets an indispensible example for individual portfolio planners wondering whether or not gold should play a role in their own holdings. MK

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:06:30 04/28/03 Mon

Rand runs resources bloodbath

South Africa's resource stocks today took their most severe beating since the infamous leak of the Mining Charter last July as the rand soared to its strongest level in more than 30 months.
Sellers offloaded in spectacular fashion throughout the day, driving all of the major mining indices lower. The overall Resource Index pulled back some of its losses in the last half hour of trading to post a 5.7 percent loss and hit its lowest level since October 2001. Traders said they could not pinpoint the origin of the selling, although one senior equities dealer said it was likely to have come from foreign investors. "It was inching down all day, but it picked up pace after New York opened. They got to their desks, saw the rand and said 'Hey! We're out of here'," said the dealer.

Mining companies are typically hardest hit by rand strength, given that they have the bulk of their costs in rands, but sell their products in dollars. The weaker dollar relative to the local currency means their revenues shrink when translated to rands.

The gold index, sheltered to some extent by the safe haven buying in the face of the weaker dollar, shed a more modest 3.6 percent.Platinum shares, however, took the full brunt of the sell-off and their index ended the day 4.11 percent lower at 20085, their lowest level since September 22 2000.

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:58:12 04/28/03 Mon

As good as GOLD

Bullion has hit the 'teenage' phase of a 20-year bull run, but rand strength is a problem, writes Hilton Shone

Gold is poised for a sustained bull run, offering investors increasingly good value and solid returns over the medium and long term, says Victor Hugo, an independent analyst at

Hugo notes in his latest research that a typical long-term gold bull market lasts between 18 and 21 years. He says : " We are only in the fourth year after a trend change from a lengthy bear market to a bull one.

"This suggests that the gold price is now only in the teenage phase of a long-term bull market."

Hugo says 1999 "may have been the final trough of the bear market in the wake of the Bank of England selling and international co-operation to support the US dollar".

The Bank of England, the UK central bank, announced in May 1999 that it would sell 415 tonnes of its total bullion reserves of 715 tonnes, sparking a slump in the price of bullion to around $252/oz - a 20-year low at the time.

But supporting a firmer gold price now is the weak dollar.

Hugo says the US currency "is still vulnerable to a 30%-35% sell-off within the next two years, which also shows scope for a stronger rand, even if current economic fundamentals don't improve".

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:52:42 04/28/03 Mon

U.S. firm, mining for gold, strikes a raw nerve

ESQUEL, Argentina -Just a month ago, investors were buzzing about gold buried in the hills and dells of Patagonia and government officials were predicting that surging gold prices and Argentina's cheap peso would stoke a boom in mining and attract billions of dollars.

But now that voters in this mountain town have turned against a $720 million gold and silver mine to be built by Meridian Gold, a mining company based in Reno, Nev., investors are thinking twice about mining in Argentina.

''The worry is that antimining forces will spread,'' said José Luis Andrich, who publishes a mining newspaper called Prensa Geo Minera. ``This puts at risk all future mining investment in Argentina.''

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:24:24 04/28/03 Mon

Gold Money and Equal Tax Rates!

One of the popular theories of the 20th century was that political freedom and economic freedom can be separated -- that a nation can regiment its economy and monetary system with centralized controls and still remain politically free. History, however, is proving this premise to be a sad illusion. And today's Washington D.C. is a most obvious example.

Like a modern day Cyclops with one eye and a stunted brain, our Federal Government now grows fatter and fatter every decade as it corrupts the forces of freedom and the soundness of our money in its lust for hegemony both domestically and internationally. Grunting and belching, regimenting and taxing, spending and consuming with the abandon of a drunken Caesar, this gargantuan beast has, in the span of 90 years, transformed a once productive marvel and manufacturing leader of the world into a decadent debtor nation hellbent to follow Rome into the dustbin of history.

The two levers of power that have allowed Gargantua to grow into such a hideous beast were given to it in 1913 with the enactment of the Federal Reserve and the progressive income tax. These two institutions destroyed the idea of "limited government" that the Founders had given us in 1787. The Federal Reserve was granted the legal power to create paper money and thus rob Americans of their wealth surreptitously. With Nixon's closing of the gold window in 1971, this power then allowed the Fed to inflate the currency at will, which has increased Washington's capacity to depreciate the dollar even further and rob Americans of their wealth even faster. The progressive income tax gave to the Federal Government the power to sieze unlimited earnings from productive Americans to buy election day support from masses of parasitical Americans.

These two institutions were the death knell of a free and prosperous republic. With the ability to print money and confiscate our incomes, the Federal Government was thus able to grow exponentially over the past century -- well beyond the strictly constrained power that the Founding Fathers intended it to be.

If we, the producers of America, wish to stop this travesty of tyrannization over our lives, we must challenge these two institutions that give Gargantua its power to grow unabated. We must mount a relentless political attack against the policies of PAPER MONEY and PROGRESSIVE TAXATION. The Big Government-Big Banking combine has, for 90 years, crucified us on a cross of paper and progressivity! And it will continue to do so until it is exposed in a clear enough way to attract large numbers of voters. When kitchen lights are turned on cockroaches in the dead of night, they scurry frantically for cover. In like manner, we must shine the light of truth upon the corporate statists of Washington who are using paper money and progressive tax rates to insidiously expand their agenda of world-wide collectivism.

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:20:13 04/28/03 Mon

Individual investors to strike gold soon

The Shanghai Gold Exchange may open its doors to individual investors before the end of June, a top executive of the exchange told Shanghai Daily yesterday.

"The People's Bank of China hasn't yet issued the official license for the new business. But it has confirmed that we can take in individuals as soon as the four authorized commercial banks have completed their preparatory work to conduct the business," said Shen Xiangrong, council director of the exchange.

Individuals will be allowed to buy or sell real bullions, or trade in deposit accounts through the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank of China and the Bank of China, which act as agents between investors and the exchange.

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:18:21 04/28/03 Mon

Gold run expected on weaker dollar

A gold price of $400/oz is a likely sustainable level if the dollar continues to weaken. This is the view of Reg Ogden, investment executive of Canaccord Capital Corporation in Vancouver.
Ogden expects the dollar to weaken by 20% over the next two to three years. “All currencies become overpriced and underpriced, and I expect it to become undervalued, the US dollar, before it comes out of this trend that it's in.”

His gold price forecast will come about mostly because of a change in the US currency, he says: “In that sense I'm bullish on gold.”
Ogden says the long-term trend for gold is a function of prosperity, rather than adversity, despite the numerous commentators that put gold's spike down to being a safe haven in times of uncertainty: “It's not really much of a monetary haven. Or hasn't been since 1980.” Rather, says Ogden, as countries become more prosperous, the demand for gold goes up.
Apart from the weaker dollar, gold will also be driven by factors including the increasing demand for jewellery: “I do see a phenomenal increase in the use of gold for jewellery,” says Ogden. He says this will come in particular from China because gold as a huge economic significance to the Chinese people. Most of the buying currently comes from India, where gold has religious significance, but he believes this will decline: “as India becomes urbanised, I don't expect a rapid escalation of gold purchasing.”

Lenny's Corner -- Sharefin, 21:14:07 04/28/03 Mon


Overall, the precious metals experienced a rather good week last week, with gold continuing its upward bias with gains of $6.10 for the week, after convincingly moving through several significant technical resistance levels. Silver, still following the movements of the gold market like a lost puppy, was up considerably to close up over 16 cents for the week. These rallies in both of the above markets were expected, and I strongly believe that we will see continued strength, especially in gold.
Now that the first stage of the Iraqi conflict is over, the market can now revert to its former trend, and that direction is most decidedly higher. Gold was rallying BEFORE the war, and now can move higher, in a grinding manner, AFTER the war. The bull market in gold is based upon its quite solid fundamentals, and these considerations moved gold from the $250's to the $330's. The gold market then withstood the onslaught of the speculative crowd, which pushed gold all the way to $390, and then as these short-term traders sold, ALL the way back to $320.00. The lesson to be learned is that sharp rallies in gold, based upon global fears and safe haven buying, RARELY if ever hold. Once the fear dissipates, the gold market tends to retreat to support, defined loosely as the level at which physical demand re-enters the market. "Paper" buying and "paper" selling can move the gold market dramatically, but all downward price movements are curtailed when the global investor, or jewelry buyer, comes back and demands actual physical product. And, when you look at the gold market over the past several years, these buyers of physical product are more and more comfortable buying at successively higher levels. Nothing could argue more decidedly that this a long-term bull market.
The major influence on the gold market at present must be considered to be the worrisome state of the USD. Just last week, this currency was down 1%, now flirting with the lows reached last March. As gold is priced in USD worldwide, any depreciation of this currency strongly encourages buyers as the prices in local currency becomes cheaper. And, as the USD shrinks, US investors seek to shelter their assets by buying "value," in the very best, and most stable sort of "safe haven" buying. Please note that most analysts and economists hold out very little hope of a long-term revival of the value of the Dollar. It looks like a one-way street from here.
Three leading USA senators have introduced legislation to authorize research into alternative wood preservation treatments for wood using silver-based biocides, rather than the arsenic-based wood treatments currently being used. The EPA currently has a plan to phase out the use of arsenic in all wood by December 2003. If silver-based biocides were used as an alternative (and this is a very very big IF), potentially over 100 million ounces of silver a year would be consumed (and probably unrecoverable forever), in this application. Now, with annual production of silver in the 850 Million ounce a year range, this could have major impact on this market, as over 10% of the total production would now go into a new usage where its recovery as scrap is impossible. The fundamentals of this market would change dramatically. But, don't get excited yet. It is still a long way from becoming reality.

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:07:30 04/28/03 Mon

Who's beating the crap out of whom?

4. Prechter, the deflationist, has the character of a preacher and a huge PR campaign to sell his book. He has scared the life out of gold share holders based on what I believe is a flawed analysis of both the history of gold in the 30s and the history of gold shares over a longer period of time.

Richard Russell -- Sharefin, 21:05:51 04/28/03 Mon

Gold will have its day

Gold -- I've received a number of e-mails which ask the same question: "Russell, if gold is in the early stages of a bull market why are you only recommended 5% gold coins and 5% in gold shares? Why not load up now?"

And my answer harkens back to the 1970s. I was buying US gold coins (any other kind was illegal) in the early '70s at $60 to $70 a piece. At that time those few early gold-bugs that I knew were gung-ho for gold to move higher. But weeks dragged by, months dragged by, years went by -- and gold remained sluggish.
So back in the early and mid-1970's we all waited and waited and waited -- for gold to rise. Months went by and -- gold went nowhere. So what in hell was wrong with gold? Then it happened -- gold started to take off.
And that's why I say 10% of your assets in gold at this time is enough -- at least enough for my average subscriber. I don't want subscribers staying up at night listening to the radio for news of gold. I don't want subscribers pulling their hair out because gold or gold stocks are not surging. I've said that subscribers should take a total 10% position in gold and then "forget about it."

Ultimately, the dollar will head south in earnest. With a budget deficit of over 5% and a trade deficit of 5% or more, no currency can hold up in international markets against those odds. In time I expect to see competitive devaluations among almost all the major currencies. The international export business is a vicious and deadly serious game. Nations receive an export advantage if their currencies decline. The temptation by nations to degrade their own currencies will be too tempting to resist.

Gold will have its day.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 20:53:00 04/28/03 Mon


But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime. --Frederic Bastiat

As Mark Twain once said, "It's sound sentiment, but bad judgement." When I see something like this, the first thought that crosses my mind is, "They don't know `sic 'em' from `come here'." This is actually a fiat money scheme masquerading as sound money. It's 'social credit" dolled up in a silver robe.

Think about it. Each ounce of silver has a market value of only US$4.50. The US$50 million circulation authorised would use only 2.5 million ounces of silver. The silver would be forced into circulation with a legal tender (gun to your head) value of US$20 each, about four times its market value. In other words, of the US$50 million to be circulated, about US$37.5 million would be created out of thin air

This is a paper money scheme, but they're printing it on silver instead of paper. The logic behind this seems to be, 'If the federal government can create money out of thin air and profit from it, why not the state?" At the foundation this is a social credit/paper money scheme, because they are trying to fix the price of silver above market. They have completely missed the "value for value" concept of gold and silver money. Mercy! Even our "allies" are our enemies. The worst thing about a monstrosity like this bill is that it throws genuine reform into disrepute.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 20:51:07 04/28/03 Mon


Question 1: Your new book was recently released by J. Wiley & Sons. In the book you argue that the current International monetary system is in danger of collapse. Could you explain why you believe the present international trade system is a danger to all of us?
Answer: It is the imbalances in the international trade system rather than the system itself that poses the danger. The United States' Current Account deficit is now $60 million AN HOUR! It increased 28% in 2002 to half a trillion dollars, an amount roughly equivalent to 5% of US GDP. This unprecedented trade imbalance has created extraordinary disequilibrium in the global economy. The countries that build up large stockpiles of international reserves due to large current account or financial account surpluses-such as Japan in the 1980, the Asia Crisis countries in the 1990s and China today-develop bubble economies. When those bubbles pop, as they inevitably do, they leave behind banking crises and excess capacity. The governments of those countries must then go deeply into debt to bail out the depositors of the failed banks. At the same time, the excess capacity in the economy results in deflation. Economic bubbles and systemic banking crises can be expected to reoccur and deflationary pressure can be expected to persist so long as the US Current Account deficits continue to flood the world with dollar liquidity.

Question 2: In your book you write that the current system is neither good for the countries who export goods to the U.S. nor ultimately to the U.S. How can a system that has brought such growth to so much of the world be bad?

Answer: Ultimately, the imbalances in the system are harmful to the United States' trading partners and to the United States itself. The countries with overall balance of payments surpluses are destabilized through the rise and collapse of economic bubbles. Ironically, the US current account deficits also helped fuel the New Paradigm Bubble in the United States. The surplus nations earn their surpluses in US Dollars. They must either invest those dollars in US dollar denominated assets or else convert the dollars into their own currencies. If they convert such large amounts of dollars into their own currencies, those currencies would appreciate sharply, putting an end to their trade surpluses and perhaps driving their economies into recession. Consequently, they park their surpluses in US dollar denominated assets instead. By investing their dollar surpluses in US dollar assets, the trading partners of the United States helped fuel the stock market bubble, facilitated the incredible misallocation of corporate capital, and, by acquiring Fannie Mae debt, contributed to the dangerous rise in US property prices.

The imbalances in the current international monetary system are also bad because they are unsustainable. The United States cannot continue going into debt to the rest of the world at the rate of $1 million a minute indefinitely. The net indebtedness of the US to the rest of the world is already approximately $3 trillion or 30% of US GDP…and its now growing at roughly 5% of GPD per annum. The economies of most of the United States' major trading partners have grown dependent on exporting much more to the US than the US imports from them. When the United States current account imbalance returns to equilibrium, and it eventually must, the era of export led growth will come to end and the world will find itself without an engine of economic growth.

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 20:14:58 04/27/03 Sun

a href="">Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,434.54 + Dow 8,306.35 = 9,740.89 divide by 2 = 4,870.44 Ponzi

Down 11.0 from last week!

Thanks for the link RossL !

The chart says it all !




Silver -- Sharefin, 07:52:41 04/23/03 Wed

Silver Volcano or Controlled Release?

When you choose to write about one topic, you develop certain patterns. For example, I report on known facts and widely accepted statistics and reach what many regard as extreme conclusions on the future price course for silver. I also attempt to convince readers that my extreme conclusions will be proven correct. As most readers know, I expect silver to move higher in a violent manner. For me it's a black or white issue. Silver, when it begins its real move, will not move in a normal or orderly manner. I'll explain why I think it must explode to a true free market price. Let me add, however, that the timing of exactly when the real move will commence is unknowable, at least by me.

Silver, alone among all commodities, has been in a long-term structural deficit. Current consumption exceeds current production, necessitating the physical depletion of existing inventories. Whether this structural deficit began over a decade ago, or over a half-century ago (as I believe), it is a phenomenon that has never occurred before. The documented disappearance of visible and known inventories of many billions of ounces of silver inventory (some six billion alone from the former largest holder of silver, the U.S. Government) confirms the existence of a deficit exceeding, on average, 100 million ounces annually for 60 years.

We also know that silver is generally an indispensable, but very low cost, component in thousands of vital modern industrial applications. Silver is the best known conductor of electricity and heat, the best reflector of light, in addition to its photographic attributes. The small amount of silver, per item, in these applications renders the price of silver inelastic, i.e., even large increases in the price of silver will have a small impact on the final total cost per item. There will be no falloff in demand at anything less than shocking silver price increases. Even where silver is used in an almost pure state, like jewelry and silverware, the fabrication component of final total cost per item is larger than most people realize. For instance, there may be no more (and maybe a lot less) than 50 cents worth of silver (at current prices) in a $10 pair of earrings. If silver rose to $20 an ounce, the cost of the silver in the earrings rises to $2. That would raise the price of the earrings $1.50, hardly a disaster to jewelry manufacturers or consumers.
It is clear to me that the silver market has been sleeping for 15 years, much like an active volcano sleeps over a long period of time. But it's a serious mistake to assume that something that is sleeping is dead. And just as years of inactivity can lure settlers to the base of a volcano, the silver traders, users and producers tend to assume this long-term price inaction portends nothing but continued inactivity. Unlike a real volcano, I think I can prove that the silver volcano must erupt.

The simple proof that the silver market must explode, like the most powerful volcano in history, lies in understanding exactly why it has been sleeping for the past 15 years, even though it has been in a widely acknowledged deficit and inventories have been evaporated to the point of extinction. If it's impossible to have documented deficits and verified disappearing inventories in a flat price environment in a free market, then the most obvious conclusion is that we have not been in a free market. If it has not been a free market, then it has been the only other thing possible, a manipulated market. Further, I have taken great measures to describe how the manipulation took place, namely through leasing and the excessive and uneconomic naked short selling on the COMEX.

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:42:43 04/23/03 Wed

More Proof - gold market manipulation

One of the statistics complied by the International Monetary Fund is the quantity of gold owned by the world's central banks. That weight is reported to be 32,291 tonnes of gold. Most people accept this number at face value and without questioning its accuracy. However, central banks actually own less gold.

In reality central banks own 32,291 tonnes of gold AND gold receivables. This distinction is important. From both a legal and an accounting point of view, gold in the vault is clearly very different from gold owed to you. The reason is that gold in the vault is much less risky than someone's promise to pay you gold.

This distinction between these two unlike assets is one of the most basic principles of accounting, namely, that cash is different from a receivable. For this reason, cash and accounts receivable appear as two different line items on balance sheets prepared according to generally accepted accounting principles. But some central banks do not report their gold assets using these sound and well-established accounting standards.

For example, the Bundesbank discloses in its 2002 annual report that it has €36,208 million of “Gold and gold receivables”. It further sustains the fiction that these two different assets are one asset by stating in the footnotes to its financial statements: “At the end of 2002 the Bank's holdings of fine gold amounted to 111 million ounces.” The Bundesbank does not, however, state anywhere in its annual report what portion of its gold is stored in vaults and what portion has been removed from the vault and placed at risk by being loaned.

Another central bank with a large gold asset is the Banca d'Italia. According to its 2001 annual report, which is the latest report available: “Monetary gold reserves were 48.1 trillion lire (EUR 24.8 billion, or $21.9 billion).” One would think from this statement that this “gold reserve” is sitting safely in secure vaults, as a reserve. But this central bank too has been withdrawing gold from the vault and placing it at risk. Its balance sheet also records “Gold and gold receivables”, and like the Bundesbank, it fails to disclose how much of its gold has been loaned.

In contrast to these reports by the German and Italian central banks, the annual report of the Banque de France shows that none of its gold has been loaned. There is no gold receivable reported by it, so none of its gold has been placed at risk by being loaned.

There is also a third category of reporting. The Swiss National Bank, for example, uses generally accepted accounting principles to prepare its financial statements. Not only does it disclose that 254.7 tonnes of its 1,661.9 tonnes have been loaned, it provides information to assess the level of risk. For example, 158.7 tonnes were loaned on an unsecured basis.

Another central bank that discloses its gold lending is Banco de Portugal. According to its latest annual report, it has removed from the vault and placed at risk 434.1 tonnes of its 606.7 tonnes, or 71.6%, which is relatively much greater than the percentage of gold placed at risk by the Swiss National Bank, which is 15.3%.

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:40:15 04/23/03 Wed

A long term view of gold

Last week the discussion of the valuation of gold mines ended with the possibility that the prices of marginal, unhedged mines with extensive reserves that can at present not be mined profitably could increase 10-fold and more, should the gold price really get going. By ":really get going" the implication is a gold price of some thousands of dollars per ounce, as is being bandied around in certain circles - circles that are seen to consist of the more wayward of the gold bulls; those thought way out even by people who are believe a gold price of $600 or $800/oz is well within reason.

The question is how good is the probability that such a stratospheric gold price could materialise.

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:36:13 04/23/03 Wed

Burning Bush: Pouring Oil on the Gold Wars

Dollar Bubble. Oil and gold intersect at the dollar. Both are generally priced and traded internationally in U.S. dollars, simultaneously reflecting and reinforcing the dollar's current position as the world's principal reserve currency. Any serious threat to the dollar's hegemony -- described more accurately by General de Gaulle as "an exorbitant privilege" -- strikes at a crucial U.S. interest: the ability effectively to meet its international financial obligations by means of the printing press rather than with gold or net exports of real goods or services.

The dollar's position is particularly vulnerable today. Washington's long-continued "strong dollar" policy, backed by the official capping of gold prices, has left the greenback intrinsically overvalued. Technically, it appears to have topped out and started into a long, multiyear decline amidst a host of negative fundamental factors, including: a growing fiscal deficit made worse by costs for the war on terrorism, homeland security, and now the Iraq war; a trade deficit running at roughly 5% of gross national product, a level generally regarded by economists as unsupportable; and heavy reliance by U.S. stock and bond markets on foreign capital. In this environment, the United States, already portrayed in some quarters as a declining empire (see, e.g., Mark Tran, "Bush fiddles with economy while Baghdad burns," Guardian Unlimited (March 26, 2003)), cannot safely ignore challenges to the dollar that might have passed unnoticed in earlier years.

In November 2000, after threatening to withhold oil from the market, Iraq obtained U.N. approval to require payment for oil exports in euros rather than dollars -- the currency of an "enemy state." See " let Iraq sell oil for euros, not dollars," (October 30, 2000). In "The Federal Reserve's Worst Nightmare," Freemarket Gold & Money Report (Number 272, October 16, 2000), James Turk described this development as "pointing a dagger at the heart of the Dollar bubble," particularly should other oil-producing countries move in the same direction. Although regime change may bring Iraq back into the dollar camp, reaction to the Iraq war threatens the opposite result in other Muslim nations. See William Pesek Jr., "Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?," (April 17, 2003); Robert Block, "Some Muslims Advocate Dumping the Dollar for the Euro," The Wall Street Journal (April 15, 2003), p. C1; Kazi Mahmood, "Economic Shift Could Hurt U.S.-British Interests In Asia," (March 30, 2003).

Until the collapse of the Ottoman empire in 1924, the gold dinar (4.22 grams equal to 0.135 ounce pure gold) was the currency of the Islamic world. With bitter memories of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Malaysia is planning to use the gold dinar (weight as yet unspecified) to settle trade balances with certain Muslim nations starting later this year, most likely with Iran. See Sonia Kolesnikovar, "Gold dinar could soon be reality," UPI (November 15, 2002); Khaled Hanafi, "Islamic Gold Dinar Will Minimize Dependency on U.S. Dollar," (January 8, 2003); and articles collected on the gold dinar at On the retail side, in November 2001 the Islamic Mint ( launched an Islamic gold dinar coin (4.25 grams of 22 carat gold), which also circulates in electronic form ( Use of the gold dinar, it is hoped, will encourage growth of Islamic financial systems and promote the unity of the ummah (i.e., Islamic community).

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:31:14 04/23/03 Wed

The Malaysian Gold Dinar Only a Few Months Away

Although it's fashionable among US and continental establishment intelligentsia and their web sites to dismiss this event, they are sadly mistaken.The economic weapons of Islam are serious and potent in the environment of the weak US dollar and debtor position of the US and US consumers.

This morning the US dollar traded under .9920. This is the critical level upon which a close in the US trading session below.9920 would technically breach the demarcation line between dollar doom and a potential technical rally.

Rest assured that the Foreign Exchange Stablilization fund will do everything in its power to hold up our Humpty Dumpty Dollar unless it collapses and breaks into a heap and the King cannot put it together again.

I have been invited to speak at the inauguration of the Malaysian Gold Dinar in Kuala Lumpur later this year. But I expect I will require certain clearances prior to my departure if I would like to return to Connecticut rather than a chicken coop in Cuba.

There is no question that this event is in fact gold's remonetization. It is the first step towards a unified Islamic currency. The Malaysian Gold Dinar is a key part of the emergence of another potential financial hegemony, the quietly rising Sino/Islamic economic union. This is an economic union in which Mr. Putin has applied for membership.

I expect China to issue a gold settlement system in the form of a Gold Yuan for utilization among its Asian trading partners. The Pakistani felon (see yesterday's market comments) may well be right.

The dollar could be dead and policy makers here may not have realized it.

Here's a recent story that appeared in the Malaysian Times about the gold dinar and its upcoming introduction:

Malaysian Times - Business section April 22, 2003

Malaysia will start using the Islamic gold dinar starting mid 2003 in its foreign trade section with some countries replacing the U.S. dollar in a first step move toward unifying the currency used in commercial dealings between Islamic countries.

The success of this idea, according to several western newspapers, may lead to minimizing the U.S. dollar hegemony as an intermediate tool in commercial dealings in the world.

The idea was adopted by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad who conducted bilateral talks during the year 2002 with several Islamic countries, including Bahrain, Libya, Morocco and Iran, to convince them of using the Islamic dinar as a way of payment in their commercial dealings with Malaysia.

This move is considered from one side a way to recall a currency related to the history of Muslims and their monetary heritage since the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him), and from the other side, the ability to find the Islamic alternative to the dollar at a time the calls to boycott all what is labelled as American starting from goods to currency, are intensified.

The idea of the Islamic gold dinar belongs to Professor Omar Ibrahim Fadillo, founder of the Morabeteen International Organization founded in 1983 in South Africa where it is widely known as well as in Europe.

The organization believes that the unity of the Islamic world can not be achieved except through the unification on the economic level. It also calls for the establishment of a united Islamic market using one currency which is the gold Islamic dinar used by the Morabeteen members, hoping it will replace the U.S. dollar.

"The idea of the Islamic gold dinar aims at minimizing the hegemony of the U.S. dollar and to use the gold once again as an international currency because the value of the paper currencies is in continuous fluctuation unlike the stable gold currency which preserve its value through the value
of the metal itself.

The system is built on the idea that the Islamic governments keep the gold in a central bank and use it in settling their commercial dealings instead of depending on foreign fund markets and foreign financial corporations. The first Islamic gold dinar, equivalent to 4.25 grams of 22-karat gold, was issued in 1992 on a very limited scale between the member of the Morabeteen.

Several countries around the world are currently dealing directly with 100,000 Islamic gold dinars and 250,000 silver dirhams issued by the company, hoping that one day it will replace the U.S. dollar in the dealings of the 1.3 billion citizens of the Islamic countries.

"Consequently, the gold dinar will be the ideal currency to facilitate and increase international trade and minimizing speculation in paper currency that led to the Asian currency crisis in 1997," Dr. Muhammad Sheriff Bashir said.

The existence of a fund unity between the countries of the Muslim world will increase the amount of trade between them and will help in increasing the economic development if the conditions for the success of the gold dinar were provided, he added.

Malaysian Times

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:21:42 04/23/03 Wed

Gold gets ready to run

Gold bears have undergone a Damascene conversion to raging bulls in a few short days as the metal burst through three successive resistance levels at the weekend. Less than ebullient about the metal's short term prospects only a week ago, after more than a month of somnambulant trading, Johannesburg and London-based bullion bankers are now touting a gold price of $340/oz within a fortnight and $350/oz inside of a month.

Gold -- Sharefin, 20:15:46 04/21/03 Mon

Gold: It Ain't Over Till It's Over

Gold Is A Financial Asset
The key driver for gold is its return as a financial hard asset. Gold is often held in anticipation of an investment or speculative return. Having lost confidence in fiat money and financial assets, investors have sought gold as a hedge against monetary depreciation. Negative returns, ongoing accounting scandals (HealthSouth), and record levels of debt continue to depress stock prices. The three-year demise of the stock market and other asset classes has caused a reluctance to remain in financial assets. Hence the return to hard assets and the emergence of talk of a return to some sort of a gold standard in order to regain price and asset stability. Even Fed Chairman, Alan Greenspan hinted of a return to the gold standard. In a recent speech to the Economic Club of New York, Greenspan said, “Although the gold standard could hardly be portrayed as having produced a period of price tranquility, it was the case that the price level in 1929 was not much different, on net, from what it had been in 1800. But in the two decades following the abandonment of the gold standard in 1933, the consumer price index in the United States nearly doubled. And, in the four decades after those prices quintupled. Monetary policy unleashed from constraints of domestic gold convertibility had allowed a persistent over-issuance of money.”
Gold's Bull Market Is Intact
We remain bullish on gold and expect a near term consolidation between $320 and $340 an ounce, the breakout level before gold's run to $390. This correction is normal and needed. After reaching our interim target at $375 an ounce in February, we continue to believe gold will hit $510 an ounce this year. Indeed, the war and its costs ensures that the target will be exceeded. The bull market was intact with or without Victory in Baghdad. It ain't over, till it's over.

A long article & an excellent read.!!!!

War -- Sharefin, 19:04:49 04/21/03 Mon

US 'to keep bases in Iraq'

The US is planning a long-term military presence in Iraq, in a move which will dramatically extend American power in the region and spread dismay and fear among its opponents across the Arab world. According to reports, the Pentagon intends to retain four military bases in Iraq after the invasion force withdraws.

War -- Sharefin, 18:51:56 04/21/03 Mon

US blueprint to bomb N Korea

THE Pentagon has produced detailed plans to bomb North Korea's nuclear plant at Yongbyon if the communist rogue state goes ahead with reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel rods that would yield it enough plutonium for half a dozen nuclear weapons within six months.

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 22:59:09 04/20/03 Sun

Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,425.50 + Dow 8,337.65 = 9,763.15 divide by 2 = 4,881.57 Ponzi

Up 100.44 from last week.

Thanks RossL for the link!




Gold -- Sharefin, 00:34:01 04/19/03 Sat

Gold's investment appeal growing

Gold's cachet as a viable part of an investment portfolio was improving amid the combined affects of deregulation and changes in investment fashions, as well as crucial alterations in the metal's negative historical legacy, according to Graham Birch, chief investment officer of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers.
Birch, speaking at the European Gold Forum in Switzerland this week, said the fact that gold had not been part of index benchmarks had given it a negative investment image in the past. However, this was becoming less important particularly as diversification among fund and money managers was “back in fashion”. As a result, traditional non-holders of gold were now including it in their investment decisions as an alternative investment.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:24:14 04/19/03 Sat

Gold Bullion to solve gold angst

Gold Bullion Ltd [ASX:GOLD], the Australian-listed gold backed equity, needs to become the jacuzzi of its sector; brand recognition which in a word crystallises physical gold's universal investment appeal. At the moment the product, in which the World Gold Council is a joint backer, is trading relatively modest volumes on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) where it listed three weeks ago. Gold Bullion's chairman, Graham Tuckwell, concedes the prelisting hype has died down, but it's early days yet.
Essentially, Gold Bullion offers investors opportunity to buy physical gold in which a single “GOLD” share is equal to a tenth of an ounce of gold. Retail investors can buy the share through the internet, larger investors can buy the gold and convert it into Gold Bullion shares.

Meetings with major institutions are planned including generalist funds who have no track-record in gold investment. Tuckwell is recommending that investors need to open up between three to seven percent of their asset allocation to physical gold depending on market outlook. This represents potentially massive investment in the physical gold market, but Tuckwell believes that on the evidence over over-the-counter trade (OTC), the market can easily provide the liquidity.

“The OTC market in gold is more liquid that any stock on the New York Stock Exchange - absolutely massive liquidity,” he says. According to a Gold Bullion publication, the London gold market normally clears at least 16 million ounces, roughly $5.5 billion, daily. Gold Bullion estimates that this amount could be three times that amount including positions that bullion traders net-off prior to clearing.

But another aspect of the message that needs to be rammed home to potential new gold investors, as well as established participants in the gold market itself, is the convenience and security of Gold Bullion's offering.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:16:23 04/19/03 Sat

Hedges to be sheared in 2003

The world's gold producers are expected to continue to reduce their hedge books in 2003 contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand, Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), the UK metals consultancy said. Releasing the publication of its Gold Survey 2003, GFMS said there was little incentive to continue hedging this year owing to the low contango. “De-hedging is expected to continue in the current year, perhaps contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand,” GFMS said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:03:59 04/19/03 Sat

Gold distracted by Iraqi sideshow

“The outcome is that Iraq is a sideshow (for the gold price) and the metal will return to its upward trend. The real issue is that gold is on an upward trend. Why?” Murenbeeld asks

The premium mobile in the gold market is US government efforts at reflation, aggressive attempts at stimulating the currency and demand in the US economy. As a result the US administration will continue to print more money and lower interest rates. Conversely, tight money supply and a strong dollar means you can “kiss gold goodbye”, Murenbeeld says. But in reflation, the US Fed will seek to cut the large trade surpluses with China ($100 billion), Japan ($70 billion) and Europe ($80 billion) in order to boost domestic demand away from foreign goods and services.

“A declining US dollar, rising inflation, low real interest rates, easy monetary policies (reflation), and strong economic growth are “gold positive” conditions; they are favourable for gold demand,” Murenbeeld says. “To put it differently, conditions that favour financial assets are not generally conditions that favour gold, while conditions that do not favour financial assets are conditions often quite favourable for gold,” he says.

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:32:50 04/18/03 Fri

Paul Walker: Director, Gold Fields Mineral Services

MONEYWEB: Just be honest.

PAUL WALKER: You know, I really do think that we've called the price pretty well. I mean, if you take us back to when we did the management buyout from Gold Fields of South Africa - I think some of your listeners may not realise that we are a completely wholly independent research company. And, since the buyout five years ago, we've made some predictions and some calls on the gold price that certainly haven't been popular within the producer community, and we were right about those. In the main we were right. I think the one time that we got things wrong was September 1999, when we had the central bank gold agreement. If anybody had predicted that beforehand, you could have traded it and retired on the back of it. We didn't anticipate something quite as profound as that, but over and above that one occasion I think in the main we've got it right. But I suspect, looking at your face, you're going to tell me that in February I said something different.

MONEYWEB: No, no. You were pretty good in February. In fact, you said the reason for the spike in the gold price - well, the spike in the gold price came on thin volumes. You said it was unlikely to be sustainable, but you were expecting in the second half of this year the gold price would do well, and you were looking around $380 to $390. So, no, you're not wrong, certainly not yet.

Are you still sticking to that view?

PAUL WALKER: I think we're still fairly positive on gold. You know, I outlined that today in the presentation that I gave. We feel that the macroeconomic backdrop as much as anything is very supportive of gold. There is rising interest from the investor community. I think there's just a perception out there that there really isn't a hell of a lot else to do with your cash these days. Now, you may take that as a sort of negative comment, that gold only performs well in times of adversity - but, after all, if you speak to most people about the role that gold should play in a portfolio, it is to insulate you to some extent from the vagaries of other markets and what's happening both geopolitically and in the broader macroeconomy. Our view is that we will see gold regain some of its losses that we've seen over the last couple of weeks, and certainly push above 350 in the second half of this year.

MONEYWEB: What makes you that confident? Because, when I go through your report and what you've compiled today, you do warn that demand for jewellery, gold jewellery, has fallen quite significantly - and that is by far the biggest offtake of gold.

PAUL WALKER: Well, I think you've got to look at the offsets here.

Somebody asked me a similar question earlier on today, and I said you have to look at the supply-demand balance in its entirety. And the one area of the supply and demand balance that has been quite phenomenally different to anything we've seen in the last 10 or 15 years has been the producer buy-back, delivery into their positions. If you like, the rundown of the outstanding producer hedge book.

MONEYWEB: But over the past 10 years, as you say, the gold price has been sliding, so it's almost been a self-fulfilling prophecy. If you see that the value of your product is dropping, lock in today and you'll be better off in a year's time, and when it comes to renewing that contract, you would renew it and be better again. But the problem is that you're pushing the price of your product down continuously.

PAUL WALKER: I think that's probably true. What you've seen changing over the last year, well, it's almost two years now, has been a belief that gold is not looking into the abyss any more. And in a sense the trigger point for that was the central bank agreement. It really did change people's views of what the downside for gold was and the producer community, the investors and their shareholders have said, hang on a second, we're not looking into the abyss, we're not looking at $200 gold. In fact, this agreement, the amount of gold, the 400 tons under the central bank of gold agreement can easily be absorbed by the gold market. It's fine at price levels above $300. It's sustainable.

We've been struggling to find that equilibrium over the last two or three years and I think the $300 level is a sustainable equilibrium price. And we believe that later on this year we're going to see $350-plus prices.

MONEYWEB: Paul, that agreement by the central banks that they would only sell 400 tons of gold a year - how long does that continue for?

PAUL WALKER: Well it's about to expire and it's interesting that the Germans, Welteke, came out with a comment the other day, indicating that there isn't quite the certainty that the agreement is going to be renewed. Now my initial reaction was to say: oh, my goodness, this means the Germans are going to sell a lot more. And after a moment's reflection and speaking to one of my colleagues, he said, hang on a second, this probably means that, in the context of the geopolitical situation, issues of the dollar's strength, where do you put your assets, maybe the Germans are having second thoughts about this and in fact they are not going to sell. And certainly the Germans are going to be the leaders in this process. The GMFS house view a year ago was that it was almost certain that the Germans would substitute for the Swiss in terms of the bulk of the sales under this agreement. That looks a little less certain now, which, all things remaining equal, is actually very good for gold.

MONEYWEB: If there were an announcement from the Germans or from the central bank that the reason why they don't want to renew the Washington Accord, I think it's called, is because they don't want to sell the 400 tons of gold into the future. First of all, where would you put that as a possibility of happening on a scale of one to 10 - and, secondly, if that were to occur, how might that influence the gold price?

PAUL WALKER: Well, I think it's increasingly likely. Putting a probability on it is probably hostage to fortune, but I think it's increasingly likely that we're not going to quite see the outcome that I would have anticipated a year ago. And, given the direction in which that is going to move, I think it's going to be good for gold. If you think about it, we're talking about 400 tons from the central bank gold agreement or the Washington agreement players.

Add in a bit of central bank selling from other sources, the bulk of the metal coming onto the market has been under that agreement. If we see a significant change in that agreement it's going to be extremely interesting for gold, and I don't think at this stage it looks like it's going to be "oh, we're going to sell six or 700 tons - this is the 400". It's going to be: "Well, maybe we don't need this agreement at all, and we can allow the remaining European banks that want to sell, one or two of those who will undoubtedly continue to sell." But the big hitters, the French, the Italians and the Germans, are going to stay out. That certainly is a possibility at this stage.

PAUL WALKER: Sure. You ask about the geopolitical issues. If you take the GFMS view of where the gold price is going, our view is the primary driver of the gold price in the next six to 12 months is going to be the economy - stupid - it's not going to be the geopolitical. That will add froth one way or the other. It can be the cream on top or it can detract, as we've seen over the last few weeks. The real driver is going to be the economy and I don't think one should lose sight of just how important this is to the investor community as a whole - that they're lacking alternatives. These new products that are being discussed - Australia, they've launched this product. I think to date it hasn't performed spectacularly, but there is this growing pool of liquidity, if you like, that's developing there. I think the really interesting thing is what's going to happen in the North American context when this product that everybody knows about but nobody's talking about finally comes to market.

I think that's when we start to see something quite interesting in the context of gold and investor demand for gold. And ultimately our view is premised on the fact that the investor is going to be the driver of this market over the next six to 12 months.

MONEYWEB: So we can look forward to a better gold price in the second half of this year and thereafter?

PAUL WALKER: Well, I think we're going to see the gold price sustaining at levels that we've seen. The production profile is not going to be a big factor. The investor's view of this metal and the alternatives out there are what's going to drive it. You tell me what your view of the FTSE and the Dow Jones is going to be 12, 18 months out, I can probably give you a view on gold.

And I think there's still a lot of downside - that's our house view.

MONEYWEB: In stock markets?

PAUL WALKER: In stock markets. And that's going to be good for gold over the foreseeable future.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:43:56 04/18/03 Fri

Gold Analysis - German

Gold Analysis - German Translation

Fiat -- Sharefin, 18:28:47 04/17/03 Thu

Indonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?

Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, dropped a bombshell recently. It's considering dropping the U.S. dollar for the euro in its oil and gas trades.

With war unfolding in Iraq and a mysterious pneumonia spreading around Asia, few noticed. News that Indonesian government officials favor the euro also fell through the cracks. Yet it could have major implications for the world's biggest economy.

Other Asian countries may not be far behind any move in Indonesia to dump the dollar. The reasons for this are economic and political, and they could trigger a realignment that undermines U.S. bond and stock markets over time.

Barrick the MOTHER of all GOLD + Banks & stocks - Fraud COVERUPS -- Jorge Lopehandia, 15:40:18 04/17/03 Thu

THE LARGEST THEFT BY DECEPTION TRAIL OF CRIMES IN THE WORLD = BARRICK et al helped by Homestake - Dayton - Pacific Rim Resources - Medinah Minerals - Penn Gold Resources - Moreno Ventures TSX, - Medinah Gold Last Frontier Oil Company - NIT Northgold Resources International Trust +++ engaged in CONCERTED CRIMES to steal "other peoples resources"...

From 1995 we pioneered NON CHEMICAL Mining as a responsible solution to a poluted world, we found the answers and promoted that, we were ambushed by Corporate greed and massive orchestrated corporate crimes.

The corporate criminals in 90% of the cases switched their corporate names "contemptously for insider gain only" they all "flipped or swallowed eachother on time", to evade legal responsibilties... later!

After several years of scientific research and applied sciences of Geology - Metallurgy, we were successful and determining that MOST mining and recovery of minerals from a rock in NATURE, can be done WITHOUT ASSISTANCE or NEED of "$ savers - $ makers" (if you own the Chems) CHEMICAL POLUTANTS. Meaning, we know how to recover all metals from a rock with water.

The TRUTH is CLEAR... NON chemical polution is BETTER and CHEAPER (no expensive Industrial security or accidents of spills) Surely, a more responsible mining with full respect of our Mother Earth's water tables and respiratory track systems of inhabitants nearby.

Our idea.....however, DID NOT PLEASE AT ALL....the BIG Mining Boys... like Barrick... 1996 - 2003, for ... INDULGENT Corporate CRIMINALS, just.... think & act DIFFERENTLY than us!

We (Family & Associates) successfully worked with a TEAM of scientists from Canada USA - Chile and Australia to bring a CLEANER and WORKABLE alternative to POLUTANT MINING and we SUCCEEDED AT IT... BY 1996..... OR SO WE THOUGHT.......

We successfully permitted Gravity Technology Systems in 1998 to operate in Chile via the National and Regional Commission for the Environment and the Ministry of Mines with all Regional Ministries on Board (Health - Work - Planning - Geaology & Mines - Tourism +++).

By 1997 we were 100% READY to do MINING without Chemicals (fresh or sea water only) WE HAD PROVEN a viable AND SUSTAINABLE alternative to mining & environmental protection, a positive symbiosis of interests to protect the Planet and allow long term jobs & mining to co-exist.

I personally confided my technology discoveries to Barrick as early as 1996 when I went to "save the day for Barrick" for their lost Pascua mine claims. Barrick paid me with 7 years of CRIMES.

We (a TOP witness and me) met with John Lill (Barrick Chile) for Barrick had just LOST their largets Gold mine (to me) (Pascua Mine area claims) SOLELY due to Barrick's own Mining Department Fraud (imperfected LAC Minerals's 1994 claims purchased by Barrick) in accordance to Chilean Mining Code - declaring them a DE FACTO Null & Void claims. (hence our 1996 valid claims EXISTED - were plagiarized by Barrick - who also STOLE our claims - the richest Gold and Silver mine in the History of the world, measured by conventional Engineering standards).

Please read our story of "ABUSED little miners" share it and help us as soon as possible to cope.

First..however.... a "telling & compelling preamble"... as to how Barrick "has operated in USA"... to "attain Gold portfolio" with a sense of "urgency to commit FRAUD".

Similarly if not "identically".... in "habitual FRAUD behaviour... commited crimes to us in Chile"....

AMERICAN BARRICK RESOURCES A.K.A. - Barrick Gold Corporation - ABX (2003)

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Until 1985, Barrick was a small gold producer with profits of $7 million. That year, Barrick "purchased" the Goldstrike Mine in northern Nevada; the company will pay the U.S. government $5,190 for 1,038 acres of land containing $8 billion worth of gold. By 1993 Barrick's profits were $175 million, and the Goldstrike was being billed as North America's richest gold mine (see "The Great Gold Heist" by Thomas J. Hilliard, in Clementine: the Journal of Responsible Mineral Development, Spring/Summer 1993, p.9-10). The estimates as to the worth of Goldstrike vary; by May 1994, when Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt signed Barrick's mineral patents, it was estimated that Barrick was getting $10 billion worth of gold for less than $10,000. Babbitt was quoted as saying that "it's the biggest gold heist since the days of Butch Cassidy. But these folks stole it fair and square. The West has long been settled but the giveaway continues unabated." The Goldstrike operation is dewatering aquifers along the Humboldt River, having lowered the water table under the mine by some 1,200 feet. The groundwater deficit will be filled by water from the Humboldt, drawing as much as two-thirds of its flow (High Country News, May 30, 1994, p. 5; and June 13, 1994, p. 6, citing University of Nevada hydologist Tom Myers' The Hydrologic Effects of Open Pit Gold MIning in the Humboldt River Drainage, published by the Sierra Club, PO Box 8096, Reno NV 89507-8096).
The Mineral Policy Center, publisher of Clementine, has an Environmental Report Card on American Barrick; write to the Center, Room 550, 1325 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington DC 20005.

********* Barrick Gold Corporation et al's FRAUD to Jorge Lopehandia + Family + Associates 1996-2003 **********

Pascua Mine in Chile a US$60 cost per ounce with 35 million Free Gold ounces - closed from PRODUCTION arbitrarely by Barrick 1997-2003 due to .LOW GOLD PRICES !!!! - Now illegally & falsely ADVERTISED to be mined 2008

CIBC Vancouver and Toronto Main Branches - CIBC Oppenheimer - UBS WARBURG - CityBANK - Banamex New York - HSBC North Vancouver's Egdmont Village Branch the Luksic group Bank are all in crimes against my persona in defense of Barrick... as are many members of the world Gold Council that took our properties without paying. Our children are innocent of their "corporate strategies of greed and bulldozing".

Banque Internationale du Luxembourg + United Mizrahi Bank + a series of other banks in Canada - USA - Mexico Europe - Israel and Chile... have been used in systematic and endemic fraud to leave me and my family consumed by DEATH
THREATS + our canadian children in inanition and deprived of food + clothing + proper education and shelter... in North Vancouver...BC... this is a shame inflicted by corporate fraudulent design and ought to stop.

Please help urgently.

US$557 Million swindled from me at CIBC Main Branch Vancouver to DEFEND Leslie Phillip Price indicted FELON herein named and 100% associate of Barrick that uses CIBC Mellon as "transfer Agent".

US$400 x 3 stolen by USI North East + Lloyd's of London via Damascus Bank and Mizrahi bank from me of a Legal JV 75% Canadian component, where the OFFENDING USA Maryland based 25% cahooted with Barrick et al + the Gobernment of China, to steal from me US$50 Billion in Gems and minerals kept in my family since the 1800's in Chile that chinese are drilling today for minerals to fabricate weapons of mass destruction.

Charles Giuliani used his name to declare US$50 Million cash deposit at BANAMEX and all my documents FRAUDULENT (abusing his uncle's Rudolph's name against my persona to protect Barrick and AVOID - CIBC Openheimer - from delivering to me US$750,000 as advance to the US$50 Million invested by me, to place same in DTC. As soon as DTC got wind of my money IT WAS ZAPPED from my jurisdiction.

With it, 4 Bankers in Guadalajara and Three top Legal department bankers in Mexico City were "retired with cheques of US$500,000 and less" that is 7+ years career bankers VANISHED from BANAMEX DF and Guadalajara, to impose the name GIULIANI versus mine against Barrick.

The RCMP has mi file for US$60 Billion mining and cash fraud and we are starving today - honest to GOD.
No food in our fridge and our todler's shoes are too tight to go to kinder, a denied teenager years without Family allowance or bank crdit BY SINISTER ORGANIZED DESIGN. Please help immediately. Thanks.

My credit was intentionally marred 1997 by Medinah Minerals's CEO Les Price, who robbed my financials to avoid me from being "bankable", thus to help ushering in the following financials crimes listed hereunder.

Our accounts receivable in short order are greatly significant.

Please assist us now, for we are Gold solid.

Respectfully I herein submit my resons to deserve your help.

Our names, reputation, creditworthiness, bankability, ability to earn, ability to conduct fair business via banks, hability to sustain my family or essentials for years, it has all has been HALTED and restricted from my persona, with petty and GRAND FRAUD by Barrick's "associates" and with their "connections", I apeared to have been BLACK LISTED.

Why? because we owned the richest minerals first and entrusted our wealth to "PHONEY" pseudo businessmen?

Take a second look at the facts.., for we need to clear our names and reputation - this is a criminal CONCERTED EFFORT to depersonalize an entire generation of my 14 brothers and sisters - over 70 Nephews and nieces my own three children and wife and the 1000's of workers I directly represent. This is AN OUTRAGE!

Not even PETER MUNK's or ANY of the THIEVES DOGS receive WORSE and more INHUMANE TREATMENT than my family for two generations already at the hands of ORGANIZED CORPORATE CRIME.


No wonder the "hurt interests are MAD" for now, I am the target of death threats and live in fear of my life FOR REAL like the person that disclosed ENRON's financial FRAUD. ENRON via Trazechann are ONE and thesame with Barrick et al.

For anyone who agrees to assist, these are the basic facts
Legal defense - Big or Small Western Union to North Vancouver - $ help to Law Firm
April 17 2003


The honourable Mr. Donald W. Doyle Jr. Principal of , examined the merits of my case.
My name was included in the ammended Law suit against my counterpart in USA at paragraph 60.
To avoid conflict of interests with Blanchard, I (we) require an independent financial source to sue Barrick, parallel in USA. Canada, UK, Switzerland or simply, to complete our Chile case against Barrick, successful since commenced March 04, 2001 the fourth anniversary of Pascua's contractual theft vy John W. Lill, envoy to Chile of Peter Munk and Randall Oliphant (Ex CFO at the time of the crime - Fired CEO recently by Barrick to COVERUP his Legal trips to Chile.)

So much for Barrick's El Indio promise of Munk, read all about Pascua FRAUD hereunder... never opened and all cash intended and raised institutionally for Chile was VANISHED and used to "replace the hedged / stolen Pascua mine"

Barrick promised multiple times to open Pascua and to expand El Indio belt... WHY did barrick Flee Chile and fired Randall Oliphant? after you finish reading my document and enclosures + links provided... you will know for sure... We own the Gold and have been prevented from touching our cash or wealth since 1997 to date.
YET, Barrick with all its might and all its FRAUD, can NOT legally open its "purportedly owned" Pascua Mine.
We know why, intimise yourselves. Relevant questions and timely assistance are welcome.

At the time of the crimes, Barrick DID NOT own our mine yet used its cash raised in the exchanges to buy:
Pierina - Sutton - Tanzania + Homestake + Alto Chicama.... Pascua WAS TO BE, (and ILLEGALLY is today - despite Judicial Judgements to the contrary in 2001 in Chile) "Barrick's largest book asset" by far... a money laundering saga of ABX.
Read the Barrick lies... Reported... Pascua in production by 2000... Pascua had 16 million proven ounces of Gold in 1996...

Where is 2000 - 2003 Gold production - cash or jobs? HEDGED and laundered cash results only, at Banks, shreholders and Investors detriment, ought to be stopped..

This info is "ABX's supressed along with many 4th quarters" at learn re: FRAUD @ Pascua 1997-2003 and take special care to visit Financials second quarter page 6 re: US$13 Million paid for 10% of Pascua.... FRAUD release.

Both sides cases , Blanchard and ours, are of extreme merits and feed on each other.

Barrick without Pascua's Gold and Silver Resources, had to HEDGE and write DERIVATIVES papers as Blanchard claims and here is the proof, solely based of Barrick's own Reported Financials and the Reported Financials of its criminally caught and on record, "mining peers".

i.e. Leslie Phillip Price - acquired US$100,000 Million in 3 Mining contracts from me in 1996, prior to Pascua's THEFT by Barrick late 1996. Feb 1997 Barrick conducted Plagiarism of our 1996 claims (today impounded by the Judicial as Fully constituted Claims, namely Mensuras called "Tesoros" )Treasures 1997, over our Amarillos (for Gold = Yellow in Spanish) see images below the big yellow piece of Chile's Andes. That is our Pascua and Barrick's crime to Banks & society at large.
We are 99% complete in Chile, all criminal appeals lost by Barrick, all civil appeals lost by Barrick who has lost title of the world's largest mine under Injunction since June 06 200 and has failed to report it to the Financial Establishment.

To that effect, Barrick has tried in a futile manner, to spend Pascua's announced production budget, since 1996 when we claimed Pascua and the OVERPAID for Pierina to Arequipa Resources then PMU until swallowed by DAYTON.
DAYTON in an ASTONISHING Price like and Pascua like maneouvre, BOUGHT PMU from Pierina's - Barrick's allied owner...
and changed DAYTON's name to PMU to mascarade in Chile crimes that left my workers and represented's destitute 1997.

DAYTON "pretended new ownership of my Legally Represented / co-owned properties at Andacollo since 1995 when it hypothecated some of our titles to 5 Banks including Bayerish van Vereins bank and when it was owned by Brian Mac Clay." of course they get easy treatment in comparison to stealing 5 thousand jobs, 7 + Million ounces of Gold, selling illegally our Resource to "another Barrick Group annointed
Bill Myckattin "the Barrick annointed" played horrific games with Andacollo Gold in complicity with Leslie Price.

Price was caught in a very bad crime with a "bunch of associates that used and abused our names, reputation, properties, shares that were never honoured, cash and worse of it all, the system"....

USA's DOJ has it right, my evidence provided in the Sierra de La Plata theft, is as strong as Barrick's case is strong, 100% undeniable racketeered theft, identical to the planned Andacollo theft. Price has already being caught and with my Chile properties peddled intentionally illegally in the Internet, worldwide. Just like Barrick (to be caught in the rest of the world and DAYTON + Homestake + various other linked offenders).

Andacollo Gold and Churrumata Gold. contain in excess of 7 million ounces as Mining Districts, each. That is a whooping 14 Million ounces that by "hedging 5 million ounces only" we end up with US$1.5 Billion... how come then DAYTON buys PMU... DISSIPATES ANDACOLLO prolific Gold camp and shuts down since 1997 crime wave... to go mining a Gold VEIN under the Jungles of El Salvador as PMU.... a US$7 Million indebted company?????

That is just like Barrick and Medinah and is absolutely reprehensible at Law. It also constitutes Bank FRAUD, illecit association to commit grand theft, money laundering, breach of securities act, breach of trust, Tax evation, for starters.
Medinah in complicity with DAYTON stole several hundred mining claims from my own hands and Associates since 1996-2003, never paid for. Medinah and DAYTON, "conveniently - staged - premeditately closed down our Gold Mill at Churrumata and then bulldozed our facilities at pre-dawn to "usher in Pascua theft few weeks before, March 04, 1997".
Gold Prices went DOWN 1997 drasticly and Barrick "went hedging our Gold"... DAYTON... closed its own 180,000 ounces annually planned producing facilities, (appears to have hedged and papered) drilled reserves with positive production decision that were over 5 million ounces of Gold pre-DAYTON already, when drilled and inferred by Chevron's geologists, as contained Gold ounces 1994 or thereabouts, we have most of the Chevron Andacollo - Indio - Tambo - Laguna Reports.
Bill Myckattin of Gibraltar & then "found my introduced project as head of DAYTON" the same person who personally in various occassions spent time at "length" swallowing my referred mining discoveries and our Andacollo project info when he was at Gibraltar.

Bill Myckattin, the party that as head of DAYTON refused to use my evidence of theft against Medinah's Price, Price told me personally that he spoke with Myckatting almost daily. (Both companies were shorted by insiders - like PMU trading patterns - like Barrick's trading patterns)

In 2003 Myckattin as PMU owns DAYTON - disguised as PMU the very company that that was sold to him by Pierina's - Arequipa owner, who sold Pierina to Barrick. DAYTON in the flip however, made a HOUDINNI act with Andacollo's Gold for PMU is a US$7 Million company only. Something is utterly wrong with these corporations overindulgent management.
Neither Barrick, Medinah or Dayton have MINED in Chile, except for mining banks, and bilking and milking the public at large in a racket that left ENRON looking like kindergarden stuff. Where are Andacollo and Churrumata Gold?
Check hereunder for Barrick's Associate Leslie Price CEO of Medinah, accomplice of DAYTON and Barrick in 1997 in Chile at Pascua's and Andacollo's Gold theft.

Please visit and and welcome to internet corporate crime.

Re: why these miners have so suddenly fled all chilean Gold operations? All were linked directly to my persona 1996 to date.
DAYTON illegally "acquired dropped Lawsuits we had against DAYTON, fraudulently acquired without paying by Medinah" Myckattin knew it from me 1998 onwards and ducked to "play with Medinah instead".

DAYTON has forged a FLIP of Andacollo & Churrumata's Gold with PMU in the same OBJECTED at LAw by Chile manner; in which Anglo tried to acquire Disputada de Las Condes from EXXON abroad, evading taxes in Chile.

DAYTON in complicity with indicted Leslie Price of Medinah, ushered in the theft of Andacollo Gold IV Region + Churrumata Gold Projects IV Region purchased for US$75 Million from my Family and Associates by Price (it included by far, over 80% the size of DAYTON Miniing's holdings in the area.

Sierra de La Plata III region purchased by indicted Les Price via "Associates" for US$25 Million including Royalties was a "casualty" as well. Since 1997, Price has "managed over time to remain - connected via the back door to that project, 100% in crime".

Whereas Blanchard can sustain a long legal battle for their meritorious lawsuit, based solely in their financial ability and the truth, our lawsuit (most of it) has been already sustained and won in merits to date, despite the wanton intent of our counterparts to suffocate the criminal process against Barrick et al, from all sides, since 1997 to date

We desrve assistance from those who still uphold values for ethics and humaine treatment of our fellow citizens worldwide.
As a Canadian citizen under LAC vs Corona jurisprudence, all offenders are liable of taking properties that were ours first.

Henceforth, we require funding to complete final steps, for we are into positive sentensing stages now and we need help!.

Our soon to be recovered Asset (one of them), is known as the largest Gold (20+ Million ounces) and Silver (592 Million ounces - 4 times more than Warren Buffet has in the Bank) mine in the world - namely, Pascua Mine in Chile.

Please see all related images for size, location and reserves.

Herein included is a link to the images that will show you the resource.

We also have a second successfula case (our Legal counterpart in this second case affecting 100+ families and over 1000 people & Barrick, are one and the same) with Supreme Court favourable Judgement in our favour, subsequent Arbitration in our favour and US$1 Billion plus in mining assets - real state - gold - copper & silver mines to be recovered as well in the Supreme Court favourable (to us) decision. However, Barrick has stood in the way of the empobrished shooless and educationless children, since 1997 to date, in alliance with Alejandro Moreno Prohens - the same co-Author of Pascua mine's 1997 theft.

Please visit. and check whatever is left of their intentionally - surgically removed 4th quarter financials. Barrick has had an ear full to that effect from as of late.

Barrick successfully GAGGED ME at LYCOS stocks messages Boards. Barrick went as far as to lie in Canadian Court to GAG ME December 2002 ILLEGALLY TELLING THE JUDGE that Barrick owned OUR Pascua mine - with LAC Minerals's (since 1997) 100% DEAD Titles.

(see LAC vs Corona Canadian Jurisprudence, that case was 10 times weaker than ours vs Barrick et al. We were born there and our names were in the valid titles of 1996, due for 100% restitution at Law.

Both cases are 100% right at Law in our side and are being FINANCIALLY SUFFOCATED by Barrick et al, we need money to complete sentensing (evidence provision a key) to hire experts to receive possession via granted injunction over US$100's millions in equipment at the already Injunctioned US$10Billion + mine, since 2001. (Barrick lies to the Exchanges)

Upon recovery within 90 days, we shall divide & disburse all settlement proceeds amongst the parties involved.
This second lawsuit assets, are immediately adjacent to Sumitomo's and phelp's Dodge's Candelaria Copper Gold mine in Chile, our assets are tied to a Barrick FED $$$$ process, so we DIVERT precious food funds, to EARN Justice. Barrick via Alejandro Moreno Prohens My legal counterpart 1995-2000 (removed after swindling from our state a US$5.5 Million Copper and Gold Mill outside Sumitomo's Candelaria.

While we follow the Law and rules to stop Barrick - Barrick et al - IGNORE THE LAW to be mild - and sell our assets at my back, the back of Chile's Supreme Court - the back of an Arbitration process -+++...

And here I am after 6 IMPLACABLY PERSECUTED YEARS.... prevented from moving under death threats - cornered by corporate and Bank's - "blacklisting"....thanks to Barrick's et al's "AGGRESSIVE GLOBAL GOLD POLICIES". What GOOD does it do to HORD our cash and PAPER the world with worthless paper NOT backed by our physical Gold? = DERIVATIVES + HEDGED Barrick's Gold 1996-2000 (until Pascua's production & equipment cash - bought the "replacement" mines)

Meantime, Barrick et al.... circumvent the Law and ethics, by buying press Releases to pretend ownership of our now, Judicially recovered - soon to be repossessed Pascua mine Gold and Silver assets.

For the exact location of our US$5.5 Million SWINDLED Mill & other properties kept or attained - Optioned - purchased illegally and with imaginary contratcts, from me & my repsented by Phelps Dodge - Sumitomo in the area, please visit: under mines, Candelaria mine and Alcaparrosa mine in Tierra Amarilla, Chile, also at - the rest of our portfolio is within areas held by (between El Salvador & El Hueso mines) near and around III Regions operations. adjacent & near Placer's Cerro Casale & Maricunga Gold District's Operations in III Region Chile as seen at,

My case is the world's largest Asset ever recovered successfully via Courts in Chile or the world.

Please help me to save the economies and 1000's of lost jobs 1997 - 2003 and counting... in USA, Canada, UK, Chile and Gold, with timely pre-settlement Financing - Timely Legal Action Support - Media Releases - askingmembers of Government for FORENSIC AUDITS of Barrick Gold Corporation's "pretended ownership OF its largest gold and silver asset = US$10 Billion plus FRAUD to us only, let alone the Banks and PHONEY GOLD PAPERED SYSTEM (like JPM extending Barrick's GOLD default 15 years and SWALLOWING Barrick's - ENRON's recent GOLD defaults.

Thanks for your kindness to consider assisting us in this important endeavour.

My e-mails and telephones are tapped or hacked constantly TO PREVENT ME from communicating the truth.

Please insist via Operator assisted call to North Vancouver Canada if you can NOT contact me (fake busy signal) at :
01-Name: Jorge R. Lopehandia
02-Day_Phone: 604 985 4020
03-Evening_Phone: 986 7915
04-Email: jrlopehandia@yahoo. (if lucky, they appear to be TAMPERED)
05-Address: 487 Roslyn Boulevard
06-City: North Vancouver
07-Province: British Columbia
08-Country: Canada
09-Postal Code: V7G1P1
Please visit re:

C U R R E N T . L I T I G A T I O N
Please Read the Second Supplemental Amended Complaint - Filed February 19, 2003
In order to save gold, a lawsuit was filed by Blanchard and Company, Inc., the largest retail dealer in physical gold in the United States, and by Blanchard clients who bought gold bullion. The suit asks the Federal Court to terminate the trading agreements between Barrick and J.P. Morgan Chase and other, as yet unnamed, bullion banks. Blanchard believes its clients suffered substantial losses as a result of Barrick's and J.P. Morgan Chase's unlawful price manipulation, anti-trust violations and unfair trade practices.

I will provide further Legal info upon receipt of written Funding Commitment subject to, from a bonafide Funder/Lender/Investor/Helping Institution or Law Firm. If we match, we will succeed.

A somewhat relevantly linked chronology of crimes events, can be found herein:

We deserve a financial hand, to recover our assets, assisted by the Law Enforcement Agencies.
We have a 100% free additional large mining portfolio and all parties are prevented from work since 1997

Jorge Lopehandia


San Antonio 378 Of. 502
Fono: +56.2.6397475 - +56.2.4410862 fax: +56.2.6321521
Santiago, Enero 30, 2003
To: Blandchard and Company.
Attn: Donald W. Doyle Jr., CEO
William Ryan, Attorney, Partner of Blanchard.
Re: "Pascua" mining project in Chile, Legal Letter of Opinion.
Cc: Jorge R. Lopehandia, Co-owner of the R. Villar G. claims trial.
Rodolfo Villar García / "Marcoleta & Asocs." Arch.
Dear Gentlemen:
As per instructions of Mr. Jorge Lopehandia and R. Villar García, we are pleased to confirm as follows:
1).- In accordance to Chilean Laws and minning codes, Barrick Gold Corporation since 1997 has no ownership, in any of the mining titles affecting the ore body or area of interest, of the "Pascua Lama" mining project in Chile.-
2).- Such fact, was determined - in principle - by the Chilean 14th Civil Court in Santiago, who dictated a Medida Prejudicial Precautoria, embargo preventivo (injunction) under cause Rol C-1912-2001, affecting the titles illegally held in the area, by an employee of Barrick Gold Corporation's subsidiary in Chile, Minera Nevada S.A., Mr. Hector Unda Llanos.-
3).- The Courts have found Minera Nevada S.A. (Barrick) to have acted in a premeditated manner, when illegally contracting in an onerous manner, 3400 hectares of rich Gold and Silver mineralization, for Ch$10,000 or US$25 in march 04, 1997. Nevada ( Barrick ) has lost all its claims/appeals to date in this matter.-
4).- To complete the two cases has been a hard battle, as Nevada-Barrick has a lot more money than my represented, to place pressure on us to promptly deliver available evidence (at a cost), to the Courts (our side is risking to have our case dismissed for inactivity or abandoment of the provision of evidence due in this probatory stage - solely due to insufficient funds - in our oppinion, the merits and evidence exist).-
5).- We need a confirmation of sufficient funding to complete the last legal stages of our successful law suits.- Sufficient funds, to continue the Probatory period which has to include the physical Pascua mine site survey of equipment, installations, appraisal and registration of the injunction over the equipment and physical assets of Nevada-Barrick on the site, at the Courts in Vallenar, Copiapó and Santiago.-
6).- Thereafter, we will move to promptly end the probatory stage by ordering the following key and critical evidence to the process:
a) Report of cash entered to Chile by Barrick Gold Corporation of Toronto under DL600 Laws or via the Central Bank of Chile / Commercial banks 1996/2003.-
b) The same as above for Barrick 2 Ltda. and for Minera Nevada S.A.
c) Report of Chilean Customs Agency, regarding the value of any and all equipment imported into Chile by Minera Nevada S.A. or Barrick Gold Corporation - ABX.
d) Report of Internal Revenue Services of Chile, Servicio de Impuestos Internos, to demonstrate that in Chile, Minera nevada S.A. taxes for Pascua mine in Chile, and no Barrick Gold Corporation of Toronto - ABX.
e) Report of the Mining Registrar with jurisdiction over the mining claims of Pascua project, 1996/2003, to prove who is the historical & valid Registered owner of record.
f) Report from the national Service of Geology and Mines, confirming that Barrick Gold Corporation of Toronto, holds no mining titles in the area of Mina Pascua project, diirectly on its name, since 1997/2003.
g) Report from the Auditors we will retain to cross reference the information reported by Barrick Gold Toronto, in relationship to our official documents in Chile.
h) Report from the site surveyors to determine de value of the equipment in situ, that the Courts have allowed our clients to Embargo (injunction).
7).- Once we complete this probatory stage, we will then move to request from the Courts to declare the onerous March 04, 1997 contract signed in Santiago between (Mr. Jorge Lopehandia's mining property officer and associate), Rodolfo Villar Garcia and John Lill, President of Minera Nevada S.A., to be declared 100% Null and Void.-
8).- We estimate the cost of US$70,000 related standard expenses payable's to Governement Agencies (Notary Public, Treasury, Mining Registrar, national Service of Geology and Mines for available information at a cost), expert personnel wages, travelling fees for DD personnel, photocopying, telecommunications and overheads, with an estimated US$30,000 direct expenses to be incurred by our Bureau, in expenses, fees, disbursements and representation expenses in Chile, Canada and the USA, to complete the probatory and to obtain the declaration of the contract Null and Void, within the next 90-120 days.-
9).- A lot of the information and Reports to be gathered, will also accomplish our tasks in the criminal case under way, where Nevada has lost all its appeals to date.-
10).- We need this week, US$3500 to complete pending matters to earn some valuable additional time in the current process.- Once Jaime Chavez Teuber (per "Marcoleta & Asocs.") , receives these funds and have the time to keep this important Legal process in good standing and on the go, I will be glad to meet Blanchard's Attorney's, to familiarize them with our successful Pascua Proyect, Civil and Criminal cases.-
Your's truly,
p."Marcoleta & Asocs."

ChartsRus -- Sharefin, 05:23:24 04/14/03 Mon

Seven new pages on gold producers plus other PM producers & explorers spread across the globe.
Well over 1000 companies with links to charts, home pages, quotes & charts.

Gold producers

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:17:06 04/14/03 Mon

Gold: Part of Every Portfolio

Q: Why do you think that at least a part of an investor's portfolio should be in precious metals?

A: Basically, gold acts contrary to how financial assets act. People have forgotten that gold can be an important part of portfolios. It wasn't important in the 1980s and 1990s, a period of disinflation, increasing productivity and great profit growth in the United States. This underwrote a terrific period in stocks and in bonds. In that environment we certainly didn't need gold.

But what people don't remember, perhaps because a lot of them were not around, was the decade of the 1970s when conditions were materially different. Stocks and bonds did poorly, and there was inflation and a huge budget deficit. There were a lot of things wrong in the American system and in that decade, gold went from $35/oz to $800/oz. Obviously, anyone who realized what was going on bought gold early on and made a lot of money. I would say that in the wake of the tech bubble, conditions will be much more difficult in the United States, and they begun to manifest themselves already.

This is the type of environment in which gold thrives. The budget surplus has turned into an enormous deficit, and there is a debt problem at all levels- consumer, corporate and government, and in the state government in particular. As a result there is going to be an awful lot of money printed. Because there is so much upside leverage in gold and gold shares, if you put 10% of your assets in gold, you can offset most of the problems that may be occurring in the rest of your portfolio. So, I just think in the decade of 2000 to 2010, some exposure to gold would be a very correct thing to do.

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 23:51:15 04/13/03 Sun

Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1358.85 + 8,203.41 = 9,562.26 divide by 2 =4,781.13 Ponzi

Down 49.20 from last week.

Thanks for the link RossL !




Fiat vs Gold -- Sharefin, 09:07:42 04/13/03 Sun

The US Dollar Bear

The mighty US dollar is languishing in a primary bear market. What are the implications of this for investors in US stocks, US bonds, and gold?

Since the mighty US dollar is the de facto global reserve currency, its trading behavior is exceedingly important for investors and speculators around the world to monitor.

In many ways the US dollar has become the central linchpin of the entire global economy, including both financial markets and international trade, so it is difficult if not impossible to overstate the importance of the dollar to the world financial system today.

While investors and speculators basing out of other countries are ever cognizant of the fluctuating tides of fortune driving the dollar's value as a currency, we Americans all too often take the dollar for granted and totally ignore its trading behavior. Most Americans, having spent their whole lives in a dollar world, don't even consider the potential impacts of dollar trading on the US markets and economy.

Yet, the dollar's performance in the international currency markets has absolutely enormous implications for American and foreign investors and speculators alike. The dollar's behavior has dramatic effects on the equity markets, bond markets, interest rates, commodities, and international trade in the United States.

The more that I ponder the dollar, the more that I realize how deeply it affects so many other critically important markets in the States and abroad. Every dollar-denominated financial market or asset on Earth today is both connected with and vulnerable to the fate of the US dollar in the international currency markets. As such, all investors and speculators need to stay abreast of dominant dollar trading trends.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:51:36 04/13/03 Sun

Rule may end state's gold mining

The Gold Rush state adopted the nation's toughest restrictions on open-pit metallic mining Thursday. The industry said the new restrictions will virtually eliminate large-scale gold mines in California.
The regulations approved by the California State Mining and Geology Board require mining companies to refill new open-pit metal mines and flatten mine waste piles back to nearly the natural landscape, a move miners say is too expensive.

"This basically ends it," said California Mining Association Manager Adam Harper. "Gold mining helped build the state. Gold is the state mineral, so that's an irony in itself -- the mining of the state mineral has pretty much been made impossible by this regulation today."

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:50:17 04/13/03 Sun

Ancient gold hoard found in Midlands

The world's largest hoard of ancient gold and silver coins has been discovered in the East Midlands.

Preliminary examinations of the material - the most significant find in recent British archaeological history - revealed it was most likely buried as a pagan religious offering at around the time of the Roman invasion in AD43.

Archaeologists unearthed between 3,000 and 4,000 silver and gold ancient British coins as well as other treasures near Market Harborough in south Leicestershire - inside the military frontier zone established by the Roman invaders in the first four years of the occupation.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:48:11 04/13/03 Sun

Simple Supply and Demand

The world consumes about 120 million ounces of gold each year - most of it for jewelry. But gold mines only produce 80 million ounces a year - leaving a real deficit of 40 million ounces - or 50% of its production. Demand still far exceeds supply. So why are spot prices and stocks falling?
Demand for gold exceeds supply by 50%. And as long as that remains true, this bull run is not over. If I am right, you can be assured of two things. One, this current correction in spot gold prices and in gold stocks is just that - a correction and not a downturn. And two, the best way to profit is to buy when everyone else is selling - that would be now.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:24:32 04/13/03 Sun

Bigger new Kinross isn't hedging its bets in the gold market

CEO skeptical of price optimism
Non-hedging policy enforced

Despite the war in Iraq and economic uncertainty around the globe, Bob Buchan is stunned by all the crazy talk he's hearing about gold going great guns in the coming months.

"You wouldn't believe the number of times I've met with institutions that are clearly credible and have a long track record who think $1,000 (U.S.) gold is a given, and you go, `Pardon? We've just been stuck in $250 gold and we think $350 is dying and going to heaven,'" says the chief executive of Toronto-based Kinross Gold Corp.
Wherever the gold price is headed, Buchan is convinced his company is better positioned either to take full advantage or weather any storms after finally completing a lengthy but friendly three-way merger with TVX Gold Inc. and Echo Bay Mines Ltd. and by enforcing a strict non-hedging policy while bullion remains hot.

The trio of small companies joined forces in January under a $2 billion (Canadian) plan that transforms Kinross into the world's seventh largest gold miner, joining the ranks of established top guns like Barrick Gold Corp.
The new Kinross has a market capitalization of $2.4 billion and 30 million ounces of reserves, half of which are based in North America. Its largest shareholder is Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., which holds a 14 per cent stake.

Last month, the company reported it lost $30.9 million (U.S.) last year compared with a loss of $36.3 million in 2001, due in part to problems at mines in Northern Ontario, Russia and Alaska. Analysts say the year-end financial results are pretty much irrelevant, though, since they don't reflect the newly merged company.

The company has $60 million in net debt, which he says will be gone in six months. Kinross also boasts that it will more than double its production to 2 million ounces in 2004 but just announced it will miss that target this year because the merger was far more complex than anticipated and couldn't be completed until Jan. 31.

The miner will spend $21 million this year to search for new deposits at nine of its 12 operating mines and expects to discover enough gold to replace this year's production. The company will be able to begin extracting gold from new ore bodies at its Birkachan property in Russia, its Refugio project in Chile and from the reopening of its Kettle River operation in Washington next year, Buchan says, adding it will help replace production at older operations.
The chief executive of 10-year-old Kinross says the merger was a necessary step in the long-overdue consolidation of the gold industry.

"I wouldn't be surprised if in two years the top two or three companies have consumed the next four or five. The market wants it. We're too small a sector to have this many players. The market cap of the entire industry is only about $50 billion, which is less than Coca-Cola. So it's not relevant," Buchan says.

Indeed, merger mania has gripped the gold sector. In the last 15 months, Newmont, the world's largest gold miner, took over Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd., Barrick Gold Corp. merged with Homestake Mining Co., Placer Dome scooped up AurionGold Inc. and Kinross completed its deal.

Will Kinross now be ripe for the picking?

"I hope so. (By) whoever has the biggest cheque. I don't care," Buchan says.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:13:24 04/13/03 Sun

Gold bugs look beyond war, betting on a declining dollar

Want to start a fight with a diehard gold fan? Just say the bullion rush that drove the price of the precious metal to almost $390 an ounce during February from a low of $252 during 1999, is, in a word, over.

Gold bugs are a rabidly loyal -- if not hopelessly optimistic -- crew. But to the average investor, gold seems to have lost a bit of its luster.

Since hitting its February high, the price of gold has swooned nearly 20 percent. And the typical precious-metals fund -- up nearly 63 percent last year -- is down 12 percent year-to-date, according to Morningstar, a Chicago research firm that tracks the mutual-fund industry.

So what gives? Is it time to go for the gold or has it lost its shine?

"Anybody who thinks the game is over is watching too much CNBC," said John Hathaway, fund manager for the Tocqueville Gold Fund in New York, which was up 83 percent last year.

Despite a number of false starts during gold's torturous 20-year slump from a high of $850 during January 1980, many fans are convinced this rally is the real deal _ the early stages of a bull market that could last for the next 10 to 12 years and push prices to $400, $500, $600 or even higher.

"I think there was a war premium built into in the gold price when it got to a high of $390," said Brien Lundin, publisher of the Gold Newsletter, based in Jefferson, La. "But that war premium has largely been washed away, and I don't think we have much more to go on the downside."

Investors frequently turn to the safety of gold when the world begins to seem like dangerous place -- one reason gold prices have historically risen during periods of war, recession and depression, right when stocks have been at their worst.

But tempting as it may be to attribute climbing gold prices to the conflict in Iraq, many gold bugs think this isn't the most significant factor in gold's latest climb.

The investment landscape is threatened by a number of storm clouds: the slipping stock market, deficit spending, and most of all, the declining dollar.

"Any long-standing bull market in gold is founded on a corresponding lack of confidence in the fiat currency of the day," Lundin said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:02:58 04/13/03 Sun

John Embry digs in on gold

John Embry has been following gold for more than 30 years, so he's not overly concerned on this day at Reds Bistro just off Bay Street when Lunch Money notes that the bullion price has dipped below US$320 an ounce from near US$390 earlier in the year. "The volatility in this area never fails to amaze me," he says as we settle into a booth in the airy upstairs dining room, a favourite luncheon spot of his -- and ours, too.

"I thought it would correct back around US$350," he concedes. "But we're in a gold bull market and we've seen the first leg and this is the first correction. We're certainly getting rid of the Johnny-come-latelys and the nervous Nellies."
While the lead-up to war in Iraq and the conflict itself have been distorting factors, they are merely a "little noise" around the basic fundamentals of gold, which are that U.S. interest rates are flat to negative and the U.S. dollar is extraordinary vulnerable in the post-bubble world, that the era of outperformance for financial assets is over. "And these are extremely gold-friendly items," he says, adding that the gold stocks are "digging in at this level."
They and a small minority of money managers believe we've had the biggest financial bubble in history and it must be followed by one of the longest, ugliest bear markets as a result.
"There's a time in life to make money and there's a time in life to keep money," he says. "Right now, we're in the latter stage. What you're trying to do is maintain your purchasing power."

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:49:04 04/13/03 Sun

For Investors, Gold's Vision 20/20

Global investors are climbing out of the bomb shelters on a fairly good bet the Iraq war has reached the end game.

But the lesson a lot of people learned from the geopolitical script was this: Gold shouldn't have been written off as just a "barbaric relic" of the past -- never to be mentioned in the same breath with the word "investment."

Indeed, Wall Street could not help but notice that gold again proved itself as a super-sensitive, forward-looking indicator. It predicted how the Gulf War would go and how long it would last.
Underlying the war fear are deeper worries about the health of the world's biggest economy and the weaker dollar. Consumer spending, which generates two-thirds of the nation's growth, could stall and lead the economy back into recession.

Americans continued to cut back on borrowing in February. The increase of 3.64 percent in consumer credit from the level of a year earlier was the slowest 12-month rise since 1993, according to the Federal Reserve.

It's fair to say the stock market will remain vulnerable to more bad news. So gold may retain some of its recent luster as people continue to hedge their bets.

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:40:04 04/13/03 Sun

Gold Survey 2003

Gold Survey highlights - pdf file

Price Rally Back Over $350 Expected in Second Half 2003 as Investor Activity Returns on Economic Grounds

Supply Highlights:
•World gold mine production in 2002 fell by a modest 36 tonnes year-on-year to 2,587 tonnes, the first
decline since 1994. The drop was mainly due to heavy falls in the United States and Indonesia, which
countered gains elsewhere, for example, in Africa, South America (chiefly Peru), China and Russia.
•Total cash costs in 2002 rose by $4/oz to $180/oz - their first rise in five years. Lower production, higher
power costs and currency appreciation were the main factors behind this change. South Africa was an
important exception here as its costs fell, making it the world's lowest cost gold producer.
•Net official sector sales in 2002 increased by 5% to 556 tonnes with heavy selling seen during the fourth
quarter when prices reached their highs. Signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreement accounted for 74%
of total net sales. Lending in contrast fell by 266 tonnes largely due to low lease rates.
•Scrap volumes jumped 18% to 835 tonnes, chiefly as a result of the gold price rise though currency issues at
times also played their part. Much of the increase came from the Middle East and then India.
Demand Highlights:
•Total fabrication declined almost 10% year-on-year to 3,175 tonnes, mainly due to the 11% slump in
jewellery offtake. Many of the other minor areas of fabrication saw modest gains, for example the dental and
electronics sectors, or even a major rise, in the case of official coins (up over 22%). The chief exception was
other industrial & decorative which fell more steeply than jewellery, slipping 19%.
•Jewellery fabrication in 2002 fell 11% to 2,689 tonnes, its lowest level since 1994. The decline was yet
steeper at 17% on the basis of fabrication excluding scrap. The chief causes of this slump included gold's
price rally, slowing global economic growth, political and economic uncertainties, such as the Iraqi crisis, and
changing consumer expenditure patterns.
•The decline in net outstanding producer hedge positions accelerated sharply last year to 423 tonnes from 151
tonnes in 2001 as miners' price expectations rose, shareholders pressured company boards to reduce their
hedge books and as the contango stayed weak.
•Economic and political concerns led to an important swing to implied net investment of 128 tonnes last year
from net disinvestment of 61 tonnes in 2001. In contrast, bar hoarding only rose a modest 2% to 252 tonnes.
The broader World Investment (which comprises the implied net figure, bar hoarding and official coins)
nearly doubled to 449 tonnes in 2002, a tonnage whose value equivalent is approximately $4.5 billion.

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:00:49 04/13/03 Sun

Gold eases in London afternoon trade after strong US data

Given the shifting sands of investor sentiment today, US economic indicators provided much of the markets' focus today, they added.

"Gold came under selling pressure this afternoon, tracking moves on the dollar," said John Read analyst at UBS Warburg.

At 3.15 pm, gold traded down 50 cents at 326.05 usd per ounce.

What to expect from the US economy now seems to be the name of the game, analysts said.

"I now seem to spend time looking at economics rather than war development for direction," added Read.

"Gold could touch a low of 320 usd per ounce on the back of better US economic data, but we remain bearish on the dollar for the course of 2003, which will help gold," said Read.

"Palladium is still vulnerable to downward moves though and with supplies increasing all the time I think it only a matter of time before we test 150," said James Moore at the BullionDesk.

Gold -- Sharefin, 06:57:19 04/13/03 Sun

Mining merger mania: more to come in Australia

A swathe of multi-billion dollar takeover deals has put most of Australia's major mining companies in foreign hands, but predators are prospecting for more.

London-listed Xstrata Plc's A$3.4 billion ($2 billion) offer last week for miner MIM Holdings Ltd is part of a boom in Australian mining takeovers.

Consolidation in the industry, which accounts for nine percent of the Australian economy, was triggered in the late 1990s by excess capacity, the technology boom that depressed miners' share prices, and companies seeking larger scale and a bigger portfolio of commodities.

Mining shares have since recovered, but the other attractions have become even more compelling.
"The bigger, more obvious, targets are gone, but there is still a lot more corporate activity to occur. There are a number of companies that would be attractive in certain circumstances to others," J.P. Morgan analyst Richard Rossiter told Reuters.

Major diversified miners have cut their cost of capital through acquisitions and boosted their valuations relative to more narrowly focused smaller players, Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Byrne said.

"That creates fertile grounds for the whales to continue eating up the plankton," he said.

Australian miners with quality resources have been prime pickings. Mining stocks currently make up just 15 percent of the Australian share market compared with 36 percent a decade ago, as some of the country's biggest miners have been swallowed by offshore predators and other sectors have grown strongly.


Major deals in recent years include the US$31 billion merger to create world's largest diversified miner, BHP Billiton Ltd/Plc, which is still on the look-out for opportunities.

Its rival Rio Tinto Ltd/Plc beat Anglo American Plc for iron ore producer North, and also took over diamond miner Ashton.

Gold miner Normandy fell to U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp after a battle against South Africa's Anglo Gold Ltd, and Canada's Placer Dome Inc won AurionGold.

Investment bankers say major global gold and diversified miners are still keeping a close eye on opportunities, while mid-tier domestic companies are looking at the smaller players.

BHP Billiton, Rio, and Anglo American are regarded as possible buyers of WMC Resources, although analysts differ on whether it is currently overvalued.

Alcoa Inc, which failed in its 2001 bid for the former WMC, is expected to eventually take over joint-venture partner Alumina Ltd, but analysts say Alcoa is in no hurry to make a move.

Australian mining merger and acquisition activity totalled US$18.3 billion in 2000-02, 17 percent of the total for the three-year period, and not including BHP's merger with London-listed Billiton, Thomson Financial estimates.

Goldman Sachs' Byrne said the mining merger-and-acquisition cycle was entering its final stages and mining chiefs would need to look at other strategies.

"The real debate that needs to rage now is what happens after all this consolidation. I think it is going to require a complete transformation in the thinking of mining executives around the world," he said.

"If the supermarket for listed mineral assets is starting to be sold out, then obviously that avenue of growth becomes closed."

Gold -- Sharefin, 06:52:21 04/13/03 Sun

Are gold producers fighting losing marketing battle?

The gold mining industry remains indifferent to the call to foster the physical gold market. According to AngloGold's marketing director Kelvin Williams, many gold mining companies, analysts and commentators take physical demand for the metal for granted, or perceive it as somehow irrelevant.
Williams said during his visit to Perth this week that there was strong evidence to suggest gold producers were indeed failing to win the hearts and minds of certain consumers of gold jewellery, the biggest physical offtake market for gold. “I would certainly not go so far as to say that we have lost these consumers, but if we were an industry which paid more attention to the health of the physical market for its product, we might find some cause for concern,” he said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 06:46:58 04/13/03 Sun

Hedges to be sheared in 2003

The world's gold producers are expected to continue to reduce their hedge books in 2003 contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand, Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS), the UK metals consultancy said. Releasing the publication of its Gold Survey 2003, GFMS said there was little incentive to continue hedging this year owing to the low contango. “De-hedging is expected to continue in the current year, perhaps contributing as much as 325 tonnes to physical demand,” GFMS said.

A 325 tonne reduction in the global hedge book is significant but it is 100 tonnes less than the contraction in hedging in 2002.

Gold -- Sharefin, 06:45:04 04/13/03 Sun

Investors to drive $350 gold - GFMS

Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) has suggested in its Gold Survey 2003 that investment in gold could drive the metal to over $350 per ounce this year. Further stock market weaknesses, a still weak dollar and low interest rates could provide the framework for this advance in investment interest, the UK consultancy said.

“A return of the rally would be all the more likely and that much stronger if the US decides to extend its war on terror post-Iraq,” Philip Klapwijk, managing director of GFMS said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 06:19:08 04/13/03 Sun

Patriot's Gold

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:58:11 04/13/03 Sun

Gold Crisis

Silver -- Sharefin, 05:59:48 04/11/03 Fri

Nevada vs. the Federal Reserve?

As Insight reports this week, there currently are 60 different forms of currency in circulation throughout the United States, and the reasons for issuing this alternative money are as numerous as the currencies themselves [see "Alternative Money Has Redeeming Value"].
While many have begun using new forms of currency to keep the money within their community, there are others, such as Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve, who are intent on using it to publicize the populist claim that the Federal Reserve is illegitimate. Now it appears that even some states are beginning to question whether the Fed is constitutional.

A bill recently submitted to the Nevada Assembly Committee on Constitutional Amendments directs the issuance of Nevada silver coins. The act, now under consideration, states in part that:

the purported delegation by the Congress of the power to issue money to the Federal Reserve Bank, a privately owned corporation, is a violation of the terms of the U.S. Constitution;

the failure of the Congress to discharge its obligations to issue all the money pursuant to Section 8 of Article I of the Constitution absolves the state of Nevada from its constitutional obligation not to issue money;

the state of Nevada shall issue into circulation coins of the state of Nevada in the amount of $50 million. The coins must contain 1 ounce of fine silver, must be alloyed to 90 percent fineness and must bear the Great Seal of the state of Nevada on one side and the words, "Contains One Troy Ounce Fine Silver," "Twenty Dollars," "Nevada Legal Tender" and the year of issue on the other side. The coins so issued are legal tender for all debts, public and private, in Nevada.

if the Nevada Legislature determines that the U.S. Congress is fulfilling its constitutional obligation to issue money by requiring the Federal Reserve "to retire its circulating notes and causing the issuance of sufficient notes of the United States and other currency to meet the needs of the commerce of the United States and Nevada, the State Treasurer shall retire the coins authorized by this section as they are received into the State Treasury."
Nevada is the first of the 50 states to consider taking such steps against the Federal Reserve, and one has to wonder which, if any state, will be next. At a minimum, it's not good news for a Federal Reserve that has made printing money and manipulating the amount of money and credit in circulation into an art form, especially on its 90th anniversary.

Silver -- Sharefin, 01:46:06 04/11/03 Fri

Facing budget hole, lawmakers consider minting Nevada coins

It'd be 1 ounce of fine silver and one huge snub at the federal government.

Nevada lawmakers searching for ways to fund a gaping budget shortage are considering a bottom-line solution _ making their own money.

A bill before the state Legislature would have Nevada mint and issue up to $500 million worth of $20 silver coins adorned with the state seal.

At a Friday committee hearing, several Nevadans outlined the pros for minting legal tender: collectors would snap up thousands, slot machine companies could sell coin authenticators and it would revive the stagnant mining industry.

"This would be a tremendous stimulant to the economy of Nevada,"said Janine Hansen of the conservative Independent American Party.

The Big Lie - Japanese Deflation -- Giovanni Dioro, 14:24:46 04/10/03 Thu

I knew this had to be true - Japan is not undergoing deflation - just the opposite.

Japan's stock market topped in 1989 just under 40,000. If we look at the data from the Bank of Japan, we find that Japan's monetary base has been expanding at over 7% per annum from the end of 1989 to the end of 2002.

BOJ series data - monetary base

In 2002 alone, the monetary base expanded at 19.5%. And people are calling this deflation!!!!!???

Gold -- Sharefin, 02:37:33 04/09/03 Wed


Consider then this statement from Bob Prechter in his book "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave" (3rd edition 1995 p.351). Here he is discussing the relevance of fibonacci numbers in timing the end of the gold bear market:

"One attractive termination date for wave Y would be New Year's Day of 2001 (+/- a month). That way, it will have lasted a fat 5 years from 1995, a lean 21 years from the 1980 peak, and 34 years from the 1967 bottom."

Six years on from that quote and a fibonaccian 21 years since the end of the last golden bull, gold prices fell and then fell a bit more past January 1st 2001 and hit a bottom of $256 the following month on February 20th. Thereafter, the gold market embarked on a 34% surge from $256 to $389 before falling back. Such is the power of the Fibonacci number sequence, but Bob Prechter does not believe his past prediction and continues to favour further falls to below $200.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:38:59 04/08/03 Tue

All that glitters is not gold for traders

The annual Hajj pilgrimage is traditionally a time of peak gold demand in the Gulf. Muslims making the holy journey to Mecca invariably mark their odyssey with a trip to Saudi Arabia's gold souks, stocking up on jewelry to commemorate their once-in-a-lifetime trip.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, those who stay home flock to their domestic gold markets to buy gifts for friends and family as they celebrate the Eid al Adha religious holiday. In each of the three years to 2002, Middle East gold demand peaked in the first three months, thanks largely to Hajj and Eid demand.

This year it's a very different story. Official figures are not yet out, but anecdotal evidence suggests demand has slumped. “We expect lower offtake in tonnage terms,” says Moaz Barakat, Middle East director of the World Gold Council (WGC), an organization funded by gold producers to promote the metal.

The same is true across the region. In the UAE, home to the region's most dynamic gold market at the Dubai gold souk, demand is down by up to 50 percent on last year. “Our business has shrunk substantially,” says Joy Alukkas, managing director of Alukkas Jewellery, one of the leading networks in 22-karat jewelry. “There is no hiding the fact that the gold jewelry business this time around is very poor.”
What caused such a dramatic collapse in gold demand? In short, the price. The price of gold, set by traders on international commodity markets, has rocketed in recent months. In February 2002, gold was selling for around $280 per ounce. By February 2003, it hovered just below $380 per ounce, though the price briefly dropped to $340 per ounce by mid-March.

“This is a ‘new' gold market,” explains Leonard Kaplan, gold analyst with Prospector Asset Management. “The price is being determined not by the actions of the users or producers in their purchases and sales of physical product, but by the psychology of the investor and speculator.” Speculative “long” positions are at their highest level in history, while bullish sentiment on the gold desks at investment banks has not been so rampant since 1980.

“Gold is, in my opinion, most certainly in a long-term secular bull market, for all the right reasons,” says Kaplan. “As the US dollar continues to falter, as the equities markets continue their slide, as the paradigm shift from ‘paper' assets to ‘hard' assets builds a bit of momentum, as the budget deficits of the United States swell, it becomes apparent that gold must rise in response.”

What does the consensus say? A recent poll by news agency Reuters underlines the uncertainty in the market. It asked some 20 trading houses for a best guess on the average gold price for 2003. Forecasts ranged from $300 per ounce to $400 per ounce, a significant margin. The average was around $342 per ounce.

Kaplan argues that Iraq holds the key to future price movements. “A peaceful solution to the Iraqi war, whether it comes as a result of a quick and decisive war or by other means, will turn investor psychology around very quickly and a vicious drop will be seen. On the other hand, if the Iraqi situation becomes worse than the market believes, the gold market will scream higher. All depends on the news at this point.”

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:29:36 04/08/03 Tue

Gold tumbles to 4-month low

Gold tumbled to its lowest price in four months yesterday, driven down by reports that U.S. forces were drawing closer to Baghdad and speculation that the war in Iraq may soon be over.

"There's a great deal of optimism about a quick victory," said Douglas Pollitt, an analyst with Toronto investment dealer Pollitt & Co. Inc.

Whether that optimism is warranted remains to be seen, he added, but "a quick victory for the U.S. would be seen as a vote of confidence in the U.S., and in the U.S. dollar."
Mr. Boustad and others say gold's prospects remain bright as a result of several non-war related factors, such as record deficits in the United States that will put pressure on the U.S. dollar and, in theory, be favourable for gold.

"But in order for fundamentals to reassert themselves, we have to get through the short term," he said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:26:52 04/08/03 Tue

Investors seek security in jewellery

Gold is often regarded as a safe haven in times of investment turmoil and there have been huge swings in the price of the precious metal during the build up to war in Iraq.
The gold price has varied by more than $60 an ounce - or about 20% - in recent weeks.

"It's the only currency which is not issued by any individual government so it is internationally anonymous, internationally portable," said Rhona O'Connell from the World Gold Council.

"People who live in politically risky countries or war-torn countries... know that if they need to flee in times of crisis, gold is probably the most safe thing that they can take with them because it's the most readily acceptable form of currency in another part of the world," she said.
Demand for gold varies greatly between regions.

"The vast majority of physical purchasing interest is concentrated from the Middle East right the way through to the Far East in terms of people who buy on a daily basis," Ms O'Connell said.

Buyers in first world countries purchase mostly small investment bars or coins. But jewellery is more popular in places like India and the Far East.

Ms O'Connell said it is important to remember the jewellery purchased in these regions is high grade.

"Jewellery has an investment connotation as well as adornment, whereas in the first world it tends only to be adornment," she said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:24:06 04/08/03 Tue

Placer reduces hedge book

Vancouver-based gold producer Placer Dome Inc. said yesterday that it cut its hedge book by 1.1 million ounces in the first quarter.

Placer Dome said it delivered 170,000 ounces into existing forward sales contracts and trimmed an additional 920,000 ounces from its hedge book through buying call options that offset forward sales agreements.

At least one analyst raised questions about how the reductions were made, pointing out that Placer Dome had essentially offset the potential impact of a forward sale by using another derivative.

"I certainly still have concerns about the complexity of the agreements," said Research Capital Corp. analyst Barry Allan.

Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., a committed non-hedger that acquired a significant hedge position through acquisitions last year, said last week that the mark-to-market value of its Australian hedge book showed a loss of $433-million (U.S.) in 2002. About 67 per cent of this loss relates to the hedge book of the Yandal mine in Australia, Newmont said. There has been speculation Yandal's hedge book could cause big financial trouble for Yandal.

In recent months, producers such as Newmont, Placer Dome, Cambior Inc. and Ashanti Goldfields Co. Ltd. have all announced plans to reduce their hedge books. When it announced its year-end results in February, Placer Dome said it would reduce its hedged position by at least one million ounces in 2003, a target it had already met with yesterday's announcement. Last year, Placer Dome bought Australian producer AurionGold Ltd., a move that boosted Placer Dome's production but also its hedge book. When the acquisition closed on Dec. 31, about 80 per cent of AurionGold's reserves were hedged, compared with about 15 per cent of Placer's.

After the merger, the company said about 24 per cent of its production was hedged. That has now been cut to 11.5 million ounces, or 22 per cent of reserves, and the company said it would cut its hedge book to 10 million ounces by the end of this year.

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:50:10 04/07/03 Mon


Here's a couple of interesting charts that point to the effects similar to the Hubert's Peak in oil.
Both show that historically we have passed the peak in production & reserves & longterm it's all downhill from here on in.
The USGS statistics also confirm the same.

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:03:49 04/07/03 Mon

Placer cuts hedge book

Placer Dome Inc. said Tuesday it has cut the amount of gold committed under its hedging program by 1.1 million ounces in the first quarter and expects its full-year reduction of 20 per cent.

Vancouver, B.C.-based Placer said in a statement it had converted 920,000 ounces under forward sales for 2004 through 2006 to put options through purchase of overall call options at a cost of $9.4-million (U.S.) or about $10 an ounce.

As of March 31, Placer said its maximum committed ounces totalled 11.5 million or about 22 per cent of gold reserves at an average expected realized price of $380 an ounce.

"We are moving quickly to simplify and reduce the hedge position that increased as a result of the AurionGold acquisition," Placer chief financial officer Rex McLennan said.

"More than 75 per cent of our production in 2003 remains fully leveraged to a rising gold price. We have now brought our 2004-2006 committed ounces more in line with our financial strategy and we will continue to reduce our commitments further."

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:00:45 04/07/03 Mon

Indian gold buying to intensify as prices tumble

Gold demand in India, the world's largest importer, has risen in the past few days and its buying is likely to intensify this week with a fall in prices after U.S. troops raided on Baghdad on Monday, traders said.

The country's gold demand, which increases during the wedding and festival seasons, is expected to remain firm until June.

"There is a hectic buying activity in the market," said Narendra Singh Rathore of Kiran Jewellers from Jaipur, a key importing centre. "People are comfortable with the current price level."

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:50:48 04/07/03 Mon

Gold major says explore or bust

Global gold-mining company Barrick Gold Corporation believes that, while the ‘urge to merge' remains, particularly at the mid-tier and junior level, exploration now has to take centre stage, especially among the majors.

The group, which boasts a portfolio of long-life low-cost mines and development projects in the US, Canada, Australia, Peru, Chile, Argentina and Tanzania, is moving into the most active development phase in its history, but is also consolidating its exploration spend at higher levels.

Barrick, which itself has not been a great explorer historically, admits that the current low level of exploration spending is untenable.

The company's senior vice-president for exploration, Alex Davidson, states that the consolidation of the mining sector over the past two years has hurt global exploration budgets, has led to a cut-back in spending on exploration research and development, and has even caused some exploration experts to leave the industry.

This, he adds, has led to an untenable situation, which, unless reversed by the majors, could, at current annual production rates, deplete gold reserves within a decade.

Lenny's Corner -- Sharefin, 22:43:58 04/07/03 Mon


The last few weeks have been the absolute worst geopolitical and economic stimuli for the precious metals, firstly and most importantly, with the war going so very well for the USA, there has been a flight out of all safe haven harbors for most speculators and investors, and secondly, those who still care about fundamentals, have been sellers of the metals as it becomes crystal clear that the economic condition of the USA, and the world, continues to deteriorate at a rather rapid pace, based upon economic statistics.
While the financial markets may continue to stare blindly only at the news from the Middle East, and move accordingly, many seasoned professionals are now becoming more concerned about the underlying fundamentals of the USD, and the recently ebullient equities markets. News has emerged from supranational organizations, such as the G7, that many nations are becoming quite concerned about the rapidly expanding "twin" deficits of the USA, the budget deficit and the current account trade deficit, and their effect upon world trade and upon the value of the USD, the largest held reserve among Central Banks in the world. Once the global financial markets cease their obsession with the war, such things will matter, and the markets will move accordingly.

Another massive positive for the gold market, and a monstrous long-term negative for the USD, is the growth of the US Money Supply. Let's pretend that we are bright-eyed, well-scrubbed, exuberant freshman at our first day in economics class, and the professor puts the following statistical information on the blackboard:
Yes, the above analysis is very highly simplistic and does not take into account a myriad factors. But, at the end of the day, monetary inflation will indeed force gold higher and an abnormally low USD interest rate will force investors into alternative investments such as the precious metals and/or commodities in general. Both are structurally long-term bullish influences that are being ignored at present, with the current obsession on the war. But when the war ends, they will again be important. Sometimes it is instructive to forget the complexities of the world, or the intricacies of global economics, and just pretend we are newborns in the world, and look at the statistics with fresh eyes. Economics is not as complicated as one thinks, but you would never learn that hearing Alan Greenspan speak
As I have commented, over the past year or two, that the biggest buyer in the gold market has not been the investor nor speculator, has not been jewelry demand, but has been the most unlikely of all, the gold producers repurchasing their previously sold forward sales, or "de-hedging". I recently read that one major Canadian gold producer has now seen their gold hedge book go "positive" (with gold now at $325ish), and it got me to thinking. After seeing their hedge books rack up huge losses of late, it seems highly likely that global gold producers will accelerate their buying of gold at these levels, placating their stockholders, and locking in profits where huge losses existed just weeks or months ago. This phenomenon should be most supportive of the gold price, as about 2500 tons of gold still exist on the global hedge book, short positions just begging to be covered. All in all, I think the gold market will be well supported at or near current prices.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:34:12 04/07/03 Mon

Miner had Midas touch at early age

Rob McEwen, who runs the world's richest gold mine, started charting stocks at 10 years of age. At 12, he made his first investment and it was a disaster.

"The stock I bought went up by nine times in just 18 months. This was bad because it took me a long time to figure out that doesn't happen all the time," he said.

Rob is president and chairman of Goldcorp Inc. in Toronto. But unlike most mining executives, who are usually geologists or engineers, he's not a mine finder. He's a trained money manager who has spent his career hunting for good balance sheets. And his market savvy and aptitude to effectively communicate to shareholders has helped him hit the motherlode.

Goldcorp began in the 1980s as a closed-end mutual fund. In the 1990s, it began snapping up control in several mining companies. These were merged and by 1993, the company was no longer a holding company, but an operating one producing 53,000 ounces of gold a year and with a total market value of $60-million. A decade later, Goldcorp is the world's eighth most valuable gold outfit, with a market capitalization of US$2-billion and annual production of 600,000 ounces.

"We have the strongest balance sheet in the industry. We have no debt and more net cash than the five largest gold companies combined," he said.

Rob is a gold bug who believes the precious metal will "test" US$800 an ounce from its close yesterday of US$325.30 an ounce within five to seven years.

This isn't because of the war in Iraq, but because of the world's ongoing currency and economic woes.

Underscoring this belief is Goldcorp's decision to bet on the metal's value by keeping 10% of his production as an investment.

"We are sitting on 200,000 ounces of gold, which is equivalent to 40% of the gold bullion held by the Bank of Canada," he said. "My goal is to hold more gold than the Bank of Canada. We already have more gold than 44 nations with central banks that hold gold."

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:29:18 04/07/03 Mon

Gold consolidation to help lift returns - Murdy

Consolidation has and will continue to reshape the gold industry as gold producers increasingly vie for access to global capital markets and seek rerating, Newmont Mining Corp's [NYSE,ASX:NEM] chief executive and chairman Wayne Murdy told delegates at the Australian Gold Conference today (Monday). He said it would also help reverse the sector's woeful rates of return record.
Australia has been the scene of significant merger activity over the past five years, with leading producers Normandy Mining, Plutonic Resources, AurionGold, Hill 50 Gold and WMC's gold division falling to global gold giants in that time. While in North America, the 125-year-old Homestake Mining as well as Battle Mountain and others have also disappeared during that period. Murdy put the consolidation wave down to a three-fold catalyst: “A low gold price, the resulting drive for scale and efficiencies, and the requirement for access to global capital markets.”

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:27:26 04/07/03 Mon

Avgold to tackle hedge book

Avgold, the gold producing subsidiary of mid-cap mining house, Anglovaal Mining, has raised the prospect it could reduce its gold hedge commitments, a contract fixing the price of its gold, earlier than expected. The benefit of lowering the company's hedge book is that Avgold will have greater exposure to the spot price of gold. Gold is thought to have much improved prospects than several years ago when the metal hit a low of about $255 per ounce. Avgold was forced to hedge it gold in order to finance the development of its Target gold mine.
At the moment, Avgold has roughly 55 percent of its annual gold production - between 8,000 to 10,000 kilograms a year - hedged until June 2006.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 22:24:38 04/07/03 Mon

Federal Reserve piecing together emergency economy plan

Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system.
Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates.

Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure that financial markets do not freeze up.

And as a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 41-year low of 1.25 per cent, it is likely to stay at the lower level as long as needed to get the economy on its feet - which would help investors' worries about a sudden jump in interest rates down the road.

The fact that Fed officials have been so open in discussing these options underscores the need the central bank sees to restore investor confidence that has been shaken by the fact that the Fed's aggressive two-year campaign to cut short-term rates has yet to produce a sustainable economic recovery. The Fed's target for the federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge for overnight loans, is now at a 41-year low of 1.25 per cent.

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:50:46 04/07/03 Mon

Gold & The March To War

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:47:36 04/07/03 Mon

Anglo rejects $6bn reparations claim

Anglo American has swept aside pressure from a US lawyer that it must provide between $3 and $6 billion in reparations for apartheid-related damages. The group claims that questions of reparations to individuals is a matter for South Africa and its courts, if necessary. In a strongly worded statement issued on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange on Friday, the UK-listed mining group said it had already made “extensive contributions” to reconciliation and reconstruction in South Africa.
It had also actively opposed apartheid policies in the past and that the company's opposition “helped bring about an end to the apartheid system,” the company said in its statement.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 03:37:30 04/07/03 Mon

Phantom Wealth

Strikingly, the late great bubble of 1996-2000 in the U.S. stock markets represents the first time since economic thinking started that this kind of wealth creation - through rising asset prices rather than through capital formation - found overwhelming attraction and admiration. The old economists never gave it any serious consideration. They flatly discarded it as pseudo or phantom wealth.

What the rising asset values effectively create is a corresponding rise in claims on the economy at the expense of those who do not own such assets. But this is wealth redistribution, not wealth creation. More importantly, this kind of wealth creation involves no gain in current incomes and productive capacity. To the extent that it actually boosts consumption at the expense of investment and the foreign trade balance, the net result from a macro perspective is overall impoverishment.
While the consensus has been trumpeting a profit miracle, we have been protesting for years that this is impossible. What led us to this opposite conclusion were simple, compelling macroeconomic considerations. They say that there is ultimately but one single way for businesses to increase their profits in the aggregate, and that is by mutually increasing their revenues through higher investment spending. With this rule in mind, we realized that all those new corporate strategies meant to boost profit creation when taken together could only have the opposite effect of depressing profits.

In fact, at the height of the boom, executives and firms faced sharply falling profits, while the prices of their shares, reflecting the inflated profit expectations, were soaring. Most importantly, Mr. Greenspan eagerly supported the stock market boom not only with absurdly euphoric statements, but also with record-high money and credit creation.

Confronted with tremendous pressure from the markets to meet the grossly inflated profit expectations, the great corporate account rigging developed for a straightforward reason. It was the need and desire to cover up the increasingly desperate corporate profits picture, contrasting dramatically with the former high-riding promises. Manifestly, the unfolding epidemic of accounting frauds is not just bearing witness to an unprecedented high level of greed. The far more important aspect is its deeper cause: the horrible reality of Corporate America's worst profit performance in the whole post-war period.

Measured as a share of GDP, profits today are at their lowest level in the whole post-war period. During the last year of the boom, in 2000, before-tax profits of nonfinancial firms were equivalent to 4.3% of GDP. That was down from 6% of GDP in 1997. This plunge of profits has to be seen against the backdrop of 18% GDP growth during this period.

More recently, profits are down further to 3% of GDP. What has hammered the stock market is plainly not a lack of confidence but collapsing profits.

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:35:14 04/07/03 Mon

Real Rates and Gold

Today one of the most powerful gold buy signals in history is strongly suggesting that the great gold bull is just getting started, regardless of the progress in the Iraq campaign. This signal is negative real interest rates, a frightening financial force of such exceeding danger to capital preservation that it makes weapons of mass destruction look like firecrackers.

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 19:11:53 04/06/03 Sun

Ponzi Chart

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,383.51 + Dow 8,277.15 = 9,660.66 divide by 2 = 4,830.33 Ponzi

Up 72.65 from last week!

Thanks for the link RossL !




Gold -- Sharefin, 23:01:49 04/04/03 Fri

A beneficiary of war and chaos

When war and chaos looms investors turn to gold.
They do so when they have lost faith in paper money and the financial
system. For many the move is the traditional hedge against inflation
while for others it is auseful hedge against a weakening US dollar
and falling US interest rates.In Germany, for example, where
hyperinflation destroyed paper currencies twice in the first half of
the last century, gold has retained an almost mystical allure as the
ultimate store of value in the event of catastrophe.
Similarly, when global inflation took off in the 1970s, the gold
price bounced hard. It peaked at about $850 an ounce in early
1980.The recent rally started a year or so ago when Japanese demand
for gold started to push the price up.
Japanese gold imports rose 569 per cent in the year to March 2002 -
triggered by the end of full government guarantees for bank
deposits.It seems some Japanese savers prefer the security of gold to
that of the country's fragile financial system.But experts question
how sustained the rally will be.
)."Gold is
unlikely to move much from these levels until the conflict is over
when investors can better assess the economic environment," says John
Reade, gold analyst at UBS Warburg.For many, the modern investment
case for gold remains shaky. It does not earn any interest and there
are other safe havens that offer a hedge against inflation, such as
index-linked bonds.Meanwhile, supply is still buoyant and physical
demand for gold is weakening as economic growth slows. Consumption in
India, the largest gold buyer, almost halved year on year in the
first six months of 2002.Buying gold while bond prices rise to record
highs is irrational, say some analysts. If the world is teetering on
the edge of deflation - as bond prices suggest - it is also
inconsistent to buy gold or commodities, for which prices will
fall.But the rise in demand for gold reflects investors' deep
distrust of equity markets - they would rather have anything other
than shares - and the extent of uncertainty about the direction of
global growth and the dollar.
Doubts are emerging about how the war in
Iraq will affect the dollar, which - as the symbol of the world's
biggest economy - has replaced gold as the world's currency.
The question is whether the greenback will remain the world's
currency of choice.Aside from the war, investors are focusing on the
chances of US growth resuming and the negative impact of the US's
large current account deficit on the dollar. This is something
investors have largely ignored up to now. Falls in the dollar are
likely to be accompanied by another rally in the gold price.Paul
Walker, gold analyst at Gold Fields Mineral Services, says: "The war
premium creates froth, but there are other fundamental factors
underpinning the price. The outlook is much more benign for gold."One
of the keys to the gold rise has been a turnround in hedging
behaviour by the gold mines and bullion banks. Historically, the
mines have sold production forward, while banks have borrowed gold,
sold it on and invested the proceeds.This has protected the mines
against falls in the gold price and provided an income. In 1999,
producers were adding 500 tonnes of gold a year to supply through
hedging.But recently the miners have been reversing these positions.
Some analysts say they took as much as 500 tonnes of gold out of the
market last year through "dehedging". One reason for dehedging has
been falling dollar interest rates, which have made it less
profitable for miners to sell gold forward, or for speculators to
sell the metal short."The opportunity cost of holding gold is now
very low," says Reade.
It does not pay producers or speculators to sell forward and reinvest
the proceeds or to borrow gold. To be attractive, the cost of
borrowing gold must be less than the cost of borrowing money. In the
mid 1990s, for example, investors could have borrowed gold at less
than 1 per cent, sold it and invested the proceeds at 7 per cent.
Falling US investment returns and interest rates have narrowed that
gap.The consensus forecast among gold analysts is that gold will
reach an average of about $345 an ounce in 2003, up from $309.8 in
2002.At times it may even totter back up towards $400 on worse-than-
expected news on the dollar, inflation or a prolonged conflict. But
it would be unrealistic to expect the price to rise to the level of
1980 in the foreseeable future.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:57:51 04/04/03 Fri

Gold Needs Investors to Regain Ground With War Premium Gone

Gold prices that rose close to $400 an ounce in February, before the U.S. attacked Iraq, are now headed for their first quarterly drop since 2001, after erasing almost all of the precious metal's ``war premium.''

Gold has fallen 15 percent from a six-year high of $390.80 an ounce, reached on Feb. 5 after a 16 percent rally over two months as speculators bet the threat of war would send investors in search of a haven from plunging stocks. The rush to gold never occurred, leaving the metal to depend on weakness in equity markets and the dollar to attract buyers.

``There was a lot of froth in the gold price at $390 because of the imminent war,'' said Trevor Steel, who helps manage $10 million in gold futures and equities at Baker Steel Ltd. in London. ``The froth has been blown away.''

``Gold needs the war to be resolved so we can get back to the focus of the economy, which is still hurting and negative for the dollar and supportive of higher gold prices,'' said Clive Ginsberg

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:55:36 04/04/03 Fri

Pace of producer gold dehedging stays hot

Gold Fields Mineral Services predicted earlier this year that we should expect at least 100 tonnes (3.2 MM oz) of gold dehedging by the half-year. The target now looks likely to fall with weeks to spare.
Newmont continues to make aggressive reductions to its hedge book, having slashed overall committed hedged ounces on its Australian book to 3.9 million ounces (121t) from 5.15 million ounces (160.2t) by late last month. Today, Placer Dome announced that it had reduced committed hedged ounces by 1.1 million ounces (34.2t) during the first quarter.

Newmont, ranked number one by production and market capitalization, repurchased 804,000 committed ounces and delivered 449,000 committed ounces for the year. Newmont has 6.6 million ounces impacted by hedging, with committed ounces the waterline by which investors judge relative exposure.

Barrick has the worst notional loss on its hedge book, reported at negative $639 million to end December 2002. The next worst loss was shown by AngloGold with negative $446 million, then Newmont with negative $433 million and Placer with negative $100 million.

The total industry book was estimated to have a negative value of $1.8 billion at the end of last year. That figure will have improved to the end of this first quarter thanks to the lower gold price, with Placer already reporting a positive value of $113 million on its hedge book as at March 31.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:53:11 04/04/03 Fri

Gold demand appears to be recovering

The continuing slide in physical gold demand is not as pronounced as perhaps initially perceived, according to a leading global gold analyst.
It was a common oversight to assume that the stronger gold prices of calendar 2002 and early 2003 were fuelled by the investment rush to physical safe haven assets in these uncertain times of prolonged economic weakness and geopolitical tension. However, the actual case was very different, said associate director of metals and mining at Macquarie Bank, Kamal Naqvi. For instance, retail investment demand fell slightly in 2002 (from 349 tonnes to 341t), “despite the surge in Japan in the first quarter and the growing macro concerns through the year”.

But Naqvi qualified this by saying the physical demand picture was not all bad news. “The trend is getting ‘less bad' for gold demand levels, with (total) demand in the last quarter of 2002 (a key period due to the range of festivals around the world) down only a relatively modest 3 percent or 33 tonnes to 1,084t,” he explained.

Just released World Gold Council/Gold Fields Mineral Services data confirmed there is a rising demand trend. While overall gold demand was 355t or about 9.5 percent lower in 2002 versus the previous CY, a comparison of the four 2002 quarters against the corresponding 2001 quarters revealed the rate of the slide was decreasing steadily - from 15.6 percent March quarter-on-March quarter, to 12.7 percent June-on-June, 7.7 percent September-on-September and 3 percent December-on-December.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:50:42 04/04/03 Fri

Surviving the Precious Metals Bull Market

Where are we in the PM bull?

The relentless bombardment of opinions on gold and silver is certainly not dissimilar to the action currently beamed into our living rooms on a regular basis. With gold struggling to hold $325, the sentiment is cautiously bullish based on widespread calls for the gold “bottom”. The meteoric rise to the $390 level, and the mesmerising falls shortly thereafter will provide plenty of ammunition for those willing to stress that gold will “fail” at its next attempt at breaching $400, which could be the catalyst required for a major shift in sentiment towards some gold juniors.

Successful speculators do exist

So who are the people that will clean up during the current PM bull market at the expense of the majority? They are those that normally,

*** Do not treat the stock market as their primary source of income or the be all and end all.
*** Have some degree of success in other fields, and are not afraid to use others expertise rather than delude themselves they can be successful at everything. Amazing how those with extremely high IQ's have difficulty trading/investing in the stock market.
*** Investigate a rumour rather than buy on a whim. Looking at a chart of past performance may indicate the smart money is already in, and the stock is likely to collapse on the earth shattering news.
*** Can place food in the microwave and see out the entire two minutes.
*** Avoid becoming depressed when gold drops $10 in a session or over excited when the reverse occurs.
*** Treat conspiracy theories with some degree of caution, however accept the fact one may indeed come to fruition.
*** Avoid bringing up, “I could have, I should have, Why didn't I? next time I will, and why the hell not? when dealing with the market. In hindsight we all made money, got the girl, hit the winning run and sailed off into the sunset. The successful speculators buy low, sell higher and do not dwell on the fact they failed to extract maximum value.
*** Successful speculators do not ring their broker every half hour or day for that matter unless they have other things to talk about.
*** They do not borrow copious amounts of money to buy depreciating assets.
*** Refrain from boasting on Internet forums when they make a profit. Most of them treat them as humour material at best.
*** Have fewer stocks with larger holdings as opposed to becoming an “alphabet speculator”.
*** Understand that mines take time to develop, and managing directors have more important things to do than address a frustrated trader who cannot get out of the stock. Most complaints from shareholders to company Directors are from those seeking exits, not to find out when a project maybe developed.
*** Are able to separate luck from trading ability.
*** Accept that gold may not be the only show in town. Silver stock accumulation and tenement holding applications have continued on unabated despite the refusal by many to treat it as a viable alternative.
*** Have exit strategies in place already for their gold stocks, and are already looking at other sectors of the market to research and build positions.
*** Account for the fact that the PM bull is likely to be far more prolonged and powerful than they originally anticipated.
*** Laugh stupidly at “The Simpsons” and not degrade those that are on the floor during Seinfeld or vice-versa.
*** Accept past mistakes and clean out their kennel. Owning small amounts of companies in liquidation or flirting with extinction is a cheap education.
*** Can spot a bullshitter a mile off and realise that one day he/she will be worth knowing. (Normally during the middle stages of a spec bubble).
*** Whilst grateful that there is “One born every minute” they realise that at times things will temporarily go against them, and they are able to resist the temptation to switch camps in fear of missing the rush.
*** Have the ability to foresee a likely transformation of a company that gets minimal attention into a potential market darling.
*** Refuse to get caught up in the hype. When a stock they paid 3c for is suddenly 30c and being touted to go to 50c they are able to separate themselves from such discussion.
*** Have a life outside the market and whilst keeping up with current affairs they also realise the need to escape. They are often out chasing the opposite sex or spending time with the family rather than watching every play on Wall St on a Friday night.
*** They are able to find reasons to like a stock rather than dwelling on the negative aspects when the share price is dormant or lower than what they paid for it. I find it amusing how a client can hate a stock at 6c but love it at 9c when they paid 8c for it. More often than not the company's fundamentals have not changed one iota.
*** Remain focussed whilst realising that at times their spreadsheets will be soaked in red ink. Often the pain on the way down is more than made up for on the way back up (normally stocks sold off on low volume).
*** Refuse to die wondering. If the fundamentals supports ones gut feeling, they have the ability to override technical analysis regardless of how terrible they look on the chart. Everything is attractive and guaranteed to make money at the top.
*** Importantly they do not become caught up in their own success. Whilst we all like to be complemented from time to time there was one line from Wall St that puts it all into perspective, “We are all just one trade away from humility”

In the context of world events the current performance of gold stocks is not surprising, nor does it indicate that the PM bull is over. We are at the stage now where investors are awaiting good news, and any discovery of note are likely to result in significant re-ratings from the direct participants and those within reasonable proximity to the find. There is sufficient activity currently being undertaken by juniors to assist in this process as drill rigs are starting to become somewhat of a scarce commodity.

There was a sell recommendation on gold in the “Editor” section of “The Australian” newspaper today. With any luck we will see more of these emerge in the near-term to kick-start the sector.

The game is far from over.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:44:53 04/04/03 Fri

Higher gold prices help states mines in '02

Surging gold prices buoyed the $2.4 billion Nevada gold mining industry last year even as production declined 5 percent, officials said Friday.

The value of the 7.7 million ounces extracted from operations in the state was 9 percent higher than the 8.1 million ounces taken last year, said Alan Coyner, administrator of the Nevada Division of Minerals.

The average gold price for the year was $310 per ounce compared with $271 per ounce in 2001. New York Mercantile gold closed at $331.50 per troy ounce Friday.

A variety of reasons are behind the decrease in yield.

Of the 24 major mines reporting to the division, 13 showed yearly decreases, Coyner said.

In addition, three mines were discontinued. They are:
o Barrick Gold Corp.'s Pinson Mine near Winnemucca.
o Glamis Gold Ltd.'s Dee Mine near Elko.
o Glamis' Daisy Mine near Beatty.

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:40:20 04/04/03 Fri

Is gold worth its weight?;

dear doctor

Should I buy gold? What about gold stocks?

-Bedazzled, Halifax


Humanity has come a long way over the last few thousand years. We no longer believe that the Earth is flat or that evil spirits cause illness, yet our fascination with gold persists.

Traditionally, gold offered many practical advantages. It could be used anywhere for transactions or as a store of wealth. It was portable and divisible-at least more so than, say, a herd of cattle. This made it particularly useful if you had to flee during a war. Now, thankfully, we have cash and securities that can be electronically transferred around the world.

Gold, at around $350 an ounce (all currency in U.S. dollars in this item), has climbed from just over $260 in early 2001. Still, that's far below its all-time high of $850. That was back on Jan. 21, 1980, amid worries of double-digit inflation and the Iran hostage crisis. Just about everything has been a better investment bet since. The Toronto Stock Exchange's Composite Index also hit a new high of 1,973 that same day in 1980, but it has more than tripled since. So has the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.

Gold stocks can be even more volatile than gold prices because of inherent leverage. Say, for instance, that it costs a company $200 an ounce to produce gold. If the price rises from $250 to $350, the company's profit triples. This is why many gold stocks have soared since 2001, and the average Canadian precious metals mutual fund posted a 76.2% return last year.

But when gold prices drop, leverage works just as quickly in reverse. If you hold on for the long term, the net result could be a washout. The S&P/TSX precious metals index has traded around 1,500 recently, more or less where it was in 1990.

Despite all the disadvantages, even a balanced portfolio may have room for gold stocks or bullion. Gold investments generally go up when many other investments go down, and vice versa. If you're determined to buy, consider the iUnits S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Index Fund, an exchange-traded fund that holds the major gold producers on the TSX and has a management expense ratio of just 0.55%, less than a quarter of the annual fee on most actively managed precious metals funds. If you want actual bullion, there's Central Fund of Canada Ltd. It holds at least 90% of its assets in gold and silver bars, or certificates, and you won't have to worry about storing or insuring the stuff.

War & Oil -- Sharefin, 22:17:52 04/04/03 Fri

Oil War

The advocates of war insist it's not about oil. But global oil production is on the brink of terminal decline and when the West begins to run short of supplies - Iraq could be a lifeline.

After World War I, the oil companies carved up Iraq. Shell, BP, Exxon and Total all had stakes in the Iraq Petroleum Company. They paid pennies for each barrel of oil and built a pipeline to take it away.

In 1972 the Iraqis nationalised the industry and threw the foreigners out. From then on Western oil companies could only dream of Iraq's oil reserves - the second largest in the world.

With Saddam Hussein came decades of war followed by sanctions and Iraq's massive reserves lay largely untouched. But with Hussein's regime under threat, at last there was a chance to get back in.

Dwindling discoveries

It's not greed that's driving big oil companies - it's survival. The rate of oil discovery has been falling ever since the 1960's when 47 billion barrels a year were discovered, mostly in the Middle East.

In the 70's the rate dropped to about 35 billion barrels while the industry concentrated on the North Sea. In the 80's it was Russia's turn, and the discovery rate dropped to 24 billion. It dropped even further in the 90's as the industry concentrated on West Africa but only found some 14 billion barrels.

Shrinking production

In America, always the greediest consumer of oil, production has been falling for 30 years. Americans guzzle 20 million barrels of oil a day, but now they have to import over 60% of it.

That pattern is being repeated elsewhere. Geologist Dr Colin Campbell predicted a decline in the North Sea several years ago and claims by 2015 Britain may have to import over half its oil needs. "In 1999 Britain went over the top and is declining quite rapidly," he says.

"It's now 17% down in just three years, and this pattern is set to continue. That means that Britain will soon be a net importer, imports have to rise, the costs of the imports have to rise, and even the security of supply is becoming a little uncertain," Campbell adds.

In Norway the government forecasts that in the next ten years its North Sea production will halve. In Argentina oil production has been down for several years and in Columbia, which was a big producer in the 90's, production is now past its peak.

US energy security

When George Bush took power two years ago, his administration was already worried about the vulnerability of America's oil supplies - the buzzword was ‘energy security'.

"I think it's quite possible that the United States realises the key importance of the Middle East generally to world supply in fact, and especially its own, and that it sees Saddam Hussein as a ready-made villain," points out Campbell.

"It finds this a convenient way in which to establish a military presence in the Middle East - aimed partially at Iraq by all means but with a wider significance to control the production elsewhere there."

The US pushed its allies hard to support military action against Iraq. With resolution 1441 last November they seemed to be making progress. But in December America's energy security took yet another turn for the worse. Venezuelan oil workers went on strike and oil prices soared - hitting $35 a barrel.

Iraqi oil for Iraqi people

As preparations for war gathered pace there were massive demonstrations around the world. The widespread view that it was all about oil worried the US and British governments so much that they came up with a plan - they would safeguard Iraq's oil for the Iraqi people.

"We will make sure that Iraq's natural resources are used for the benefit of their owners, the Iraqi people," President Bush told the world.

But even if the post-Saddam regime retains control of oil exports, at least the boost in Iraqi output will provide a growing supply to the West.

For a war supposedly not about oil, military planners made a high priority of securing the oilfields. Apart from a handful of wells torched by Iraqi troops, the huge southern oilfields were taken largely intact. But other major oil-producing regions are still in Iraqi hands and there is still a danger that, as in Kuwait 12 years ago, massive sabotage may hit oil production for years to come.

Terminal decline

Whatever happens, rebuilding Iraq will be a huge job and only US companies have been invited to bid for contracts.

Opposition leader Dr Salah Al-Shaikhly, of the Iraqi National Accord, admits Britain and America will benefit from helping remove Saddam. "Well definitely those who have helped us, all along, with regime change. Obviously they should have a little edge over the rest. I think even in economics, this is quite acceptable… as well as the politics."

But even if Iraq does boost its oil production ironically the effect could be short lived. Its vast reserves represent just four years of world consumption and by the time Iraqi oil is flowing freely, global oil production may already be in terminal decline.

Campbell thinks the decline will start by 2010. "It starts with a price shock due to control of the market by a few countries, and it is followed by the onset of physical shortage, which just gets worse and worse and worse," he says.

So if alternatives to oil are not found soon the changes could be radical. Unlimited use of cars and cheap flights around the world may well be a thing of the past. While international trade - the very basis of the global economy - will suffer.

Fiat -- Sharefin, 21:39:34 04/04/03 Fri

When Bubbles Burst

Real and Financial Effects of Bursting Asset Price Bubbles

Corporate Fragility and Investment: What's Different About the Recent Bubble?

IMF Warning

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:25:55 04/01/03 Tue

The Golden Bull - I'm bullish on "things"

In a bull market, old resistance levels become barriers for price movements. They will be continually challenged and repelled until some new element of news or a change in fundamentals causes the trend to breakout. It is similar to a medieval siege. There will be a constant battle between buyers and sellers at these key resistance levels. There will be several attempts at challenging these key resistance levels until such time that buying power overwhelms selling power and the resistance level is breached. This last siege or battle took place at the $325-$330 level as shown in the chart above. This level is now acting as a key support level. Once resistance levels are breached, they in turn become support levels when prices correct. Note the charts of the last 1970s bull market in gold and silver below. There were corrective periods where the price pulled back as noted by the red arrows. However, also note that the primary bull market resumed it's upward trend. In other words, it is normal for any market cycle--whether it is bull or bear--to go through corrective countertrends.

In summary, gold and precious metals are now in the early stages of anew bull market. This is evident by the charts up above. This new bull market will go through corrective stages and periodic pullbacks. These periods should be used as opportunities to add to your holdings. As the charts of Homestake Mining during the Great Depression and the commodity bull market of the 70's indicate, bull markets in “things” can last a long time. Please take time to review these historical charts. Ponder them. Once you reflect long on the picture they tell, I believe you will come to the same conclusion as I have. You only need to make a few investment decisions in your lifetime. If you can discover a new trend and get on board that trend early and then ride that trend until it ends, that is how real fortunes are made.

Forum archived -- Sharefin, 08:23:35 04/01/03 Tue

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