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THE GOLDEN POT
gold news & views - charts & more
not so much a forum but rather a news archive




The Golden Beauty Nugget -- Sharefin, 06:23:05 05/22/02 Wed





Target -- SilverDragon, 06:21:51 05/22/02 Wed

Target remains the same for many months... June 28th / XAU180



Gold -- Sharefin, 02:33:36 05/22/02 Wed

Gold bull run continues in Europe, eyes $325

Gold's bull market showed no sign of slackening in Europe on Wednesday, and as prices pushed up to fresh 27-month highs amid a potent cocktail of fundamental factors analysts eyed the $320.00 an ounce level.

"There are golden smiles all around once again as the noblest of metals has left the bears choking on the dust of a renewed bull run," analyst Nick Moore of broker J.P. Morgan said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:13:43 05/21/02 Tue

Time to take profits on gold?

SA Golds rock the bourse today, but some senior analysts say its time to take the money and run. Miningweb looks at how the shares performed today.

---
SA golds cheap, but beware the bubble

South Africa's top-rated gold analyst says local gold shares remain cheap compared to their North American counterparts, but he warns that the valuation "bubble" developing in gold equities will not grow indefinitely.



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:12:33 05/21/02 Tue

Gold time rock 'n roll

Australian gold mining stocks had another session in the sun today (Tuesday) and market experts say there is plenty more upside potential in both the gold price and share prices in the short term.



Gold Predictions -- Sharefin, 18:09:10 05/21/02 Tue

Chris Carolan - gold stair



Silver -- Sharefin, 18:07:25 05/21/02 Tue

Funds haul COMEX silver to 15-month high in early trade

COMEX silver futures raced to a 15-month high early Tuesday, breaking above the previous 2002 peak with funds in hot pursuit after shifting their buying enthusiasm from gold.



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:05:51 05/21/02 Tue

Gold's day in the sun set to continue

GOLD'S day in the sun looks set to continue after the precious metal touched a 27 month high of $US316 an ounce overnight, the Australian Gold Council (AGC) said today.



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:01:21 05/21/02 Tue

Second heady day for gold stocks

But Daniel McConvey, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, told clients that he's concerned about gold stocks at present valuations.

"We are cautious about buying gold stocks at current levels," he wrote in a note Tuesday. "With the XAU at 83 and many companies in our universe hitting our target prices, these stocks are nearly fully valued given our one-year outlook for the gold price of $280 to $320."

But, he added, circumstances could move gold higher: "The market, economic and political environment has proven fertile for gold prices and we do not know how high gold could trade in the near term."



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:59:16 05/21/02 Tue

Gold bandwagon losing riders - Contrarian standpoint: Less is more

The contrarian foundation of a gold bull market remains as strong as ever -- gold's recent explosive rally notwithstanding.

As of the market's close on Monday, for example, the average exposure to the gold market among the gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest stood at just 29.2 percent, with the remaining 70.8 percent allocated to cash.

Believe it or not, this recent reading is even lower than the already low 37.5 percent at which it stood on May 2, the last time I took stock of gold newsletter sentiment. See May 2 column.

Yet on Monday, gold was trading at $8 more per ounce than it was then.

It is quite bullish that the gold-timing newsletters are so skeptical of gold, and that they are becoming even more bearish in the face of gold's rallies.



Silver -- Sharefin, 17:57:41 05/21/02 Tue

Silver spurt boosts Gold Bugs Index

Unhedged gold producers top gains
As gold, silver climb, rallying metal indexes surge

Gold's sharp rise, and a catch-up rise in silver, are boosting the 6-year-old Gold Bugs Index of unhedged miners much more than its larger counterpart, the 23-year-old Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index.

In a day, as the price of spot gold surpassed $315, the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI: news, chart, profile) rose 11 percent vs. a 3.1 percent gain for gold. (That was earlier this week.) The Gold Bugs Index, representing gold companies that sell their product straight into the market without derivatives or forward sales, has tripled in value since late 2000.

The dollar-weighted Gold Bugs Index was designed to provide investors with a way to benefit from near-term movements in gold prices by including companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond 1.5 years. In recent days, including Tuesday, explosive gains in silver miners have powered the index higher.

"I see gold headed to $450. Foreigners have finally had their fill of dollars and are now on balance selling dollars to reinvest elsewhere," said Doody, whose top 10 gold stocks have gained 104 percent since Jan. 2. The newsletter editor says he expects gold to reach his price target by the end of next year.

"Including this one, there have been six bull markets in gold since the U.S. stopped converting dollars from foreign central banks into gold on Aug. 15, 1971," Doody told me. "Four of the six bull markets have been driven by the current account deficit, and the smallest gain gold made was 76 percent. Since this move started from $256 in April 2001, a 76 percent move this time would be up to $450, and this is my target by end of '03."



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:53:28 05/21/02 Tue

Gold Bulls Unite



Gold -- Sharefin, 10:19:20 05/21/02 Tue

The Gold Jungle Book



New Gold Index Charts -- Sharefin, 10:13:29 05/21/02 Tue

Due to the S&P removing the XGO & TGL Gold Indices I've recreated them here.

Australian Producers - was XGO - Market Cap Weighted

Australian Explorers - Equal Weighting


Canadian Gold Index - was TGL (Toronto Gold Index) - Market Cap Weighted



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:26:14 05/20/02 Mon

Gold breaking out


Resistance levels in front of gold


Silver breaking out - a very strong breakout should come from the built up pattern




expanded version -- shell, 20:20:26 05/20/02 Mon

Lessons from Past Markets

(or How a Full-Grown Bull Sneaks Up on You)



By Derek K. Van Artsdalen




May 2002



I've been noticing on many of the message boards for the mining companies I follow that folks tend to get nervous when the price of gold pulls back. They begin wondering if they should sell their mining stocks and take their profits. They ask questions like, "Is the bull run over for gold?" and other such nonsense.



Just out of curiosity, I went back to the data from the greatest bull market in gold in modern history (the Big One from mid-1977 to January 1980) and did a study of the day-to-day change in the London PM fix price for gold. Here's what I found:



Out of a total of about 655 trading days from the low in mid-'77 to the peak in January '80, there were 370 trading days in which the London PM fix was higher than the previous day's fix and there were 285 trading days in which the fix price was lower than the previous day's fix. In other words, even during the greatest modern-day bull market gold has ever experienced, nearly 44% of the time, it was trading lower from the previous day's fix price!!! That's more than two days every week that traders witnessed a lowering of the price of an ounce of gold from the previous day's trading!!!



Additionally, there were five months during that 31-month run-up in which the average price of gold was actually lower than the previous month's average. No doubt people were wondering at that time, "Is the bull market over?". Even as late as August 23, 1979 the price of gold was only $310.05 -- almost exactly where it is today! But only about 20 weeks later, the price of gold had skyrocketed to its peak of about $875 per ounce -- a 180% increase in fewer than 5 months!!! Think how tempting it would have been to sell out when gold hit, say, $400 (keep in mind that at the beginning of that bull run, the price was a piddly $137.50), only to watch with regret and frustration as it continued exploding upward past $500, past $600, past $700, and, finally, past $800 per ounce!!! The lesson is this: it is in the latter stages of bull markets where most of the money is made.



I found it interesting that on May 15th, 1979 the price of gold was set at about $256 per ounce. The price had risen about 86% from its mid-'77 low. Not bad, of course, but not exactly the stuff of goldbugs' dreams, right? However, by the end of the year, a mere 7 and 1/2 months later, the price of gold had doubled to $512!!! Then, within about three weeks of that, the price shot up an additional 70% to its peak of about $875!!!



The point is, though, that even in the best of bull markets, nearly half the trading days will be "down" days.



In addition to folks who follow the gold market complaining about the number of days gold is "down," I also hear many naysayers on the message boards proclaiming, essentially, that "gold hasn't been able to break into new highs." Or, "the last high is now creating impenetrable 'resistance' " -- that sort of thing.



Never mind that gold has achieved a higher monthly average price every month this year except March. Never mind that gold is now more than 20% higher than its lows of last year. Never mind that gold has increased in value nearly 13% in the last 20 weeks alone (that's about a 33% APR, by the way -- try getting that at your local bank or money market fund!). Despite this relatively stellar performance, there are still those who contend that, in a "true" bull market, gold "should" be making new highs at a much faster clip.



Being the skeptical type, I went back once again and examined the data from the greatest modern-day bull market gold has experienced and I counted the number of days when gold was not only up but also made a new high. This time, just to give the whiners and pessimists a fighting chance, I went back to the very beginning of the Big One (which culminated at $875 in January 1980). That bull actually had its earliest roots after the low of $103.50 on August 25, 1976. I started there figuring that, after the extreme bottom of the cycle, there certainly would have been a larger percentage of days when gold set new highs. Counting forward from August 26, 1976 (the day after the lowest low) to the very top of the cycle nearly 3 and 1/2 years later on January 21, 1980, there were about 744 trading days. Care to guess how many trading days out of each 100 gold was able to set a new high? You may be surprised at the answer: a mere 20.



That's right: in the most power-packed bull run ever witnessed in the gold market, gold managed new highs only 20 days out of each 100! And that was, as far as we know, without having to contend with the Cabalistic antics we "moderns" have suffered!



This fact shocked me. To illustrate with one quick example from those days: gold set a new high for the move on November 15, 1976 at $138.85 per ounce (all prices using the London PM fix). From that day, gold traded lower the remainder of the year and for more than three months total, failing to reach a new high until it hit $139.15 on February 23, 1977!!!



This brings to mind a favorite saying of one of the world-class traders of all-time, Jesse Livermore, who used to confidently proclaim: "Be right; sit tight!"



In the investment game, as in most other walks of life, patience prospers...



Derekv@swbell.net



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:13:14 05/20/02 Mon

Gold price hits 27-month high

Analysts said that after years of ignoring the massive US trade imbalance, the market is now paying increasing attention to the deficit, which weakens a currency.

Many precious metals analysts see a strong inverse correlation between gold prices and the US dollar index which is at its lowest since October.

"Further weakness in the dollar or profit-taking in the equity markets will almost certainly attract fresh investment," said Standard Bank in London.



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:11:28 05/20/02 Mon

Gold market attracts bigger money

Experts see flows into large, small mining shares

The gold market, surging Monday after a terrorism warning from U.S. Vice President Richard Cheney and a slipping dollar, is luring large investors stymied by red ink in their core stock-market holdings. Managers of $100 million or more are establishing hundreds of new positions in Placer Dome Gold, Anglogold, Gold Fields and Newmont Mining, the world's largest gold producer.


Murphy cited growing demand figures for gold, whose price has been stirred in perhaps equal parts by a reduction of producer hedging, Nasdaq's relentless slide, declining miner production of the metal, the dollar's recent weakness against the yen and euro and concerns about terrorist strikes against the United States.

"Very few in the investment/gold world realize the magnitude of the gold move that is upon us," he said. "What a nightmare for the shorts. They are trapped. There are gold loans and swaps of around 15,000 tonnes, an annual supply/demand deficit of 1,700 tonnes and mine supply at 2,500 tonnes that is going lower in the years to come, no matter what the gold price does. There is going to be a mad scramble to find new gold supply."



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:04:47 05/20/02 Mon

Gold prices jump

Gold prices surged to their highest level in more than two years Monday, driven by increasing fears about the possibility of another major terror attack, a weakening U.S. dollar, falling stock prices and uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy.

"The general state of the economy, financial market health, concerns about what's going on in the Middle East and other political concerns have contributed to a general state of uncertainty about what the future holds and what this means for financial markets," said analyst Vanessa Motto, associate director of CPM Group, a precious metals research firm. "That appears to have had some affect on the U.S. dollar, which favors higher gold prices."

And gold prices, which Motto said broke through a key resistance level of $314 an ounce on Monday, aren't likely to fall any time soon -- barring a major miracle.

"It's less likely that you'll see all sources of uncertainty cleared up in a nice, neat way," Motto said. "There's likely to be uncertainty in the future, and gold prices will be sustained at current levels or higher."



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:03:06 05/20/02 Mon

Gold surges higher amid global instability

Gold has hit a 27-month high as investors pile into the safe haven asset in face the of a sick US dollar and fears of renewed violence in the Middle East.



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:00:53 05/20/02 Mon

Gold Driven Above $316 On More Fund Buying

Comex Jun gold futures pushed to fresh 23-month highs of $316.70 per ounce Monday on further fund buying against a backdrop of continued weakness for the dollar.

Heavy trade selling into the strength was tempering the climb higher, sources said, but with the funds showing aggressive intent price-marks were jolting the price higher intermittently.

The dealer also noted the periodic activation of automatic stop-loss buy orders situated at regular intervals which further adds to the buying flow.

The near-term upside targets include the $320 and $325 levels, he said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:58:26 05/20/02 Mon

Gold Prices Rise on Decline in U.S. Stocks and Weakening Dollar

"People are moving out of paper assets and into commodities, and gold is benefiting from that," said John L. Johnston, a trader at Refco Inc. in New York.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:54:44 05/20/02 Mon

Analysts & Insiders Wary of Gold's Glitter



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:53:18 05/20/02 Mon

DECLINING US DOLLAR vs. GOLD

I have no doubt that the demise of the US Dollar, which seems to be inevitable, will unleash a bull market in gold bullion that even the most avid gold bull cannot now imagine. This is not something that we can contemplate with any degree of comfort because the world that we now know will have changed beyond recognition.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:48:16 05/20/02 Mon

Standard Bank

. Gold remained under pressure in early Comex dealings, but weakness in the USD encouraged bargain hunting at the lows. The market edged higher for the remainder of the morning session before a bout of trade buying forced the price above $312.00, although this level could not be sustained as profit taking weighed on the market into the close. Gold will continue to gain support from the fund community during the week ahead as they protect their long positions, which have risen to their highest levels in over six years. Support remains prominent between $308 and $305, and further weakness in the USD or profit taking in the equity markets will almost certainly attract fresh investment. With resistance pegged at $314, a break of this important level could see gold target $320.00.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:40:35 05/20/02 Mon

Gold's rise to fame no flash in the pan

A recent turnaround in the gold price is not a flash in the pan, Appelton Asset Management said on Monday.

Managing director of Appleton, Dee Campouroglou, said a major reason why the gold price would stay at high levels was that the metal's producers were unwinding their forward books, easing the downward pressure on the its spot price.

"This should remove the gold price ceiling at around $330," she said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:38:05 05/20/02 Mon

Geopolitical Jitters Boost Spot Gold

Geopolitical jitters sparked by Sunday's suicide bombing in Israel, rising tensions between nuclear powers India and Pakistan boost spot gold to US$311.35/oz



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:37:57 05/19/02 Sun

Gold demand surges by 38pc

Pakistan's gold demand in first quarter (January-March) 2002 was estimated at 41 tons - 38 per cent higher as compared to same period of 2001.

According to the WGC, gold demand remained strong in a number of countries where economic circumstances were more propitious. The council cited Pakistan as a most noticeable example where consumption rose by 38 per cent. Other countries, where gold demand surges, were China by five per cent, South Korea seven per cent, Malaysia eight per cent, Vietnam 11 per cent and the UK by three per cent. Demand also increased on year on year by two per cent in the US.

Gold demand fell in the Middle East by nine per cent due to political worries and Thailand by 25 per cent.

---
Strange how India's demand plunges yet Pakistan's soars.



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:30:14 05/19/02 Sun

AngloGold sees consolidation, but no deal to announce

Top officials of Toronto-based Barrick, the world's second largest producer, last week denied the rumor as did an official from South African Gold Fields, fourth in the world in gold output.

"I think it is true that the last word on consolidation has not been spoken, but I'll tell you I have no deals to announce today," Godsell said.

He added, "Any deal that I am going to be involved in is going to be driven by increasing return, earnings, increased cash flow out of the combined entity."



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:28:42 05/19/02 Sun

Jap gold demand waiting on worries

Renewed bank-related problems in Japan could inspire another surge in gold demand with June, September, December and March the key months to watch, says the World Gold Council's Jill Leyland.



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:24:04 05/19/02 Sun

THE TEXAS HEDGES OF BARRICK

There is a fundamental difference between speculation and arbitrage. The speculator deliberately takes large risks in the hope of large profits. The arbitrageur is not interested in increasing risks, in fact, he wants to reduce them. His main instrument is the straddle with two legs: a long leg representing purchase in one market, and a short leg representing a compensating sale in another. In closing out the straddle both legs must be lifted simultaneously, otherwise the arbitrage is turned into speculation. The activity of the arbitrageur is also known as hedging, and another name for a straddle is a hedge. As the objectives of speculation and arbitrage are diagonally opposite to one another, it is a bad mistake to confuse the two, as is the case all too often. This confusion is epitomized by the story about the Texas rancher. When it was pointed out to him that the long positions in cattle futures he was affectionately calling "me hedges" were in fact no hedges at all because they lacked the short leg, he proudly answered: "them are Texas hedges." The title of this paper suggests that the hedges of Barrick are no hedges at all because they lack the long leg.



Lenny's Commentary -- Sharefin, 22:21:11 05/19/02 Sun

GENERAL COMMENTS:

While the last few paragraphs above are generally bullish in nature, my current stance on the market; lets note that JP Morgan has issued a warning to its clients that a substantial correction in gold prices will soon be inevitable. Based on several technical considerations, such as the RSI and Stochastics, that show the market to be dramatically "overbought", such readings "have delivered price declines of $15 and $65 on seven separate occasions". Well, while I do give consideration to technical indicators, I strongly believe that this current gold market is much different from the past, that the very internal structure of the market has changed, and that speculative longs and shorts no longer act the way they did previously, and that gold producers are certainly not trading the way they were previously. In my opinion, technical considerations lose much of their validity when the very "heart and soul" of a market changes dramatically. And, I maintain that such a "sea change" has indeed occurred.

---
I would certainly state that the most important news was the release of the first quarter's "Gold Demand Trends" by the World Gold Council. (pdf file here) A few tidbits will give you the flavor...

Total global demand fell to 749.5 tons, a 10% decline year on year. This occurred despite a 31% increase in investment demand to over 125 tons.
Indian gold demand, the largest "taker" in the world, cascaded down 40% as gold prices rallied and as their currency plummeted. The market not only saw lower imports but many reports of Indian dishoarding were reported. Official imports during the first quarter of the year into India were down an astonishing 55%, to just 84.7 tons.
Gold demand was up in Pakistan, USA, Great Britain, China and most of the Asian nations. But gold demand fell by 9% in the Middle East.

----
I wonder if the WGC does it's accounting Enron style........
Like GFMS........



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:13:25 05/19/02 Sun

The Shape of Things to Come



Shell -- Sharefin, 22:10:02 05/19/02 Sun

It's ok - I've created my own Toronto Gold Index using the same stocks and Market Cap Weighted.
Likewise with the Australia XGO index.

If they keep on removing them then I'll keep on building them.(:-)))

I should have the new indices online shortly.



sharefin -- shell, 18:26:45 05/19/02 Sun

another possibility re the tgl problem is to start entering the new s&ptse gold index prices into your tgl database, and then convert all your back tgl data to 'match' it by using the distribution or stock split tool in the downloader--ie if new tse is $223 and last tgl was $6700, then you enter a $6477 distribution, or, a 1 for 30 reverse split--just an idea.

ill try to get you the last 10-15 tgl prices tomorrow morning



Financial Sense -- Sharefin, 07:53:01 05/19/02 Sun

Rogue Waves & Standard Deviations



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:12:12 05/18/02 Sat

The Revenge Of Gold



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:04:56 05/18/02 Sat

Hedgers wipe out more than $1-bn

Placer Dome [PDG] is the sole remaining major hedger with a positive mark-to-market value on its hedge book, some $235 million to the good at the end of March, but that's about where the good news ends.
The combined value of hedge programmes run by the major producers, including currency and related derivative instruments, had a negative value approaching $2 billion at the end of the first quarter. The hedge programmes cover more than 70 million ounces of gold; equivalent to nearly a full year of new mine production.

The losses piled on as gold ran up from the December 31 closing price of $277 an ounce to the first quarter closing of $303 per ounce, a $26 gain, or 9.4 per cent. With bullion since adding a further $7 and holding at these levels through the second quarter's midway point, things are looking bleak.

The books of the largest hedgers swung violently as the leading foursome by ounces committed - Barrick [ABX], AngloGold [AU], Placer Dome and Newmont [NEM] - saw their balance sheets weaken by close on $1 billion. The top four account for over 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, half of those against Barrick's name alone.

Australia's Newcrest [NCR] is in a precarious position at nearly half a million dollars in the red on all its positions against just 6 million ounces committed, or a little more than one fifth of resources. Fellow Aussie producer Aurion Gold also looks endangered with 90 per cent of its reserves short sold, a programme that is underwater to the tune of $250 million. That is more than double the loss Ashanti [ASL] carries on 9 per cent fewer ounces.

---
Make sure you read the letters at the bottom - Jerry (:-)))



Gidsek -- Sharefin, 18:03:58 05/18/02 Sat

That's what I mean - they switched off the datafeed on 1st of May - same with BigCharts.

The only data I can find is EOD quotes here Yahoo



hmm ^TGL .... DATA not up to date sorry -- gidsek, 13:41:56 05/18/02 Sat




Toronto Gold % PM dailys (yahoo ^TGL) -- gidsek, 13:37:43 05/18/02 Sat

link

http://table.finance.yahoo.com/k?s=^tgl&g=d



Data -- Sharefin, 08:18:12 05/18/02 Sat

Can anyone provide me with the data OHLC for the TGL - Toronto Gold Index for the last two weeks or point me to a website where I can download this from.

Yahoo is no longer any good for this.

TIA



Gold conspiracies -- Sharefin, 06:50:43 05/18/02 Sat

Methinks that there is a conspiracy to suppress the spread of information on gold rising.
A few months ago Yahoo stopped serving quotes & historical data on the JGOL index after serving it for years.
Then the ASX announces that the XGO is soon to stop posting.
Now we have the case of the TGL stopping.
Yahoo has stopped quoting historical data & bigcharts also.

So all around the globe all the various major gold indexes are being hushed up.

I wonder why.........
No doubts as to who........



Shell -- Sharefin, 06:46:49 05/18/02 Sat

Sorry but I can't help you.
My USERX starts in 1986 & INIVX starts in 1993

Don't worry - this here is a bull.(:-))))



SHELL ... USERX -- SilverDragon, 06:26:26 05/18/02 Sat

SHELL, USERX is the 1st mutual I invested in. My old hand drawn USERX chart starts March of 1983. If that would be of help to you let me know.
SilverDragon



SHAREFIN--PRICE DATA? -- SHELL, 21:34:47 05/17/02 Fri

DO YOU HAVE DAILY PRICES FOR EITHER/OR USERX AND INIVX FROM 1984 BACK TO 1974,1975?
IF YOU DO COULD I GET THAT FROM YOU IN A TEXT FILE THAT I MGHT BE ABLE TO LOAD INTO MY METASTOCK PROGRAM?
NO DATA BASE IVE ASKED HAS BEYOND 1983

PURPOSE IS TO RUN INDICATOR PARAMETER STUDIES FOR WHAT WAS A MAJOR BULL MKT--ALL I HAVE IS FROM THE 1986, 1990 AND 1993 BULLS THAT WERE PROB. NOT MAJORS---AND PURPOSE OF THIS S PREPARATION FOR THE TIME COMING WHEN WE SHOULD SELL--PREFERRABLY WEEKLY STUDIES--I SUSPECT 1980 IS QUITE DIFFERENT RE OBOT LEVELS, DIVERGENCES ETC

ALSO WANT TO RUN A COPPOCK STUDY FROM 1973--IF YOU HAVE BUT CANT SHARE THE DATA COULD YOU AT LEAST RUN THE COPPOCK ON HOSE TWO FUNDS--I HAVE THE COPPOCK FORMULA FOR METASTOCK IF YOU DONT



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:07:13 05/17/02 Fri

When Gold Comes to Town

Why does gold go up in price? Why do fools fall in love? Gold can rise because the American dollar goes down in value or because South African mines have declining production. Gold rises when the Indian wedding season begins or when interest rates are low or when the stock market is moribund.

Gold may as well rise during caterpillar season, when Pluto and Neptune align, while the Leafs are in the quarter-finals.



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:02:14 05/17/02 Fri

Manager takes a shine to gold stocks

Fund manager Eric Sprott sees glitter in gold stocks, predicting that they will continue to climb in what he expects will be a prolonged bear market.

"I have no difficulty imagining gold getting to between $500 [U.S.] and $1,000 an ounce in two to four years," says the president of Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management Inc.



Gold -- Sharefin, 07:40:37 05/17/02 Fri

Piscataway to London: Metals-Trading Scam Grew Fast

A 10-foot-high waterfall lit by spotlights greets visitors in the waiting room. Incense burns in every office. Behind the front desk, a clock shows the time for Shanghai, Dubai and Sydney.

This is the Piscataway, New Jersey, headquarters of Allied Deals Inc., where prosecutors say four executives led by Narendra Kumar Rastogi put together a global metals-trading scam that bilked banks of at least $600 million.

A U.S. and U.K. investigation into the alleged fraud -- which bamboozled banks including FleetBoston Financial Corp., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., KBC Bank NV and Hypovereinsbank NV -- centers on the Rastogi brothers.

Allied Deals was incorporated in New York in 1989 as a metals broker and in London in 1996, according to court documents and company filings. The company's name in London was later changed to RBG.



Gold -- Sharefin, 07:36:30 05/17/02 Fri

Mintek unveils prototype air purifier



Gold -- Sharefin, 07:34:26 05/17/02 Fri

Euro fuels goldrush

A RUSH to convert old currency “mattress money” following the arrival of the euro fuelled a huge rise in the sales of gold coins across Europe, new figures show.
Demand for gold coins was up 69 per cent in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Consumers hastened to convert their marks, lire, francs and other currencies.

Banks in Austria and Germany regularly advertise gold coins for sale. In Germany, a new issue of a commemorative gold euro coin requiring 11 tonnes of gold was six times oversubscribed.



Gold -- Sharefin, 07:31:05 05/17/02 Fri

To hedge or not to hedge?



Fiat -- Sharefin, 07:25:09 05/17/02 Fri

Fed Losses Control



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:10:17 05/16/02 Thu

Gold demand falls due to ME tension

The ongoing Palestinian intifada has resulted in a drop in demand for gold in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf. Gold demand in the Kingdom fell in the past few months. This was reflected in its lower import.

“The Kingdom experienced a relatively poor start to the year as gold offtake declined to 56.5 tons, 11 percent lower year on year. This was reflected in lower import figures; gold imports fell by seven tons to 33 tons. The rise in gold prices and the political tension in the region together caused the downturn in demand,” World Gold Council's Gulf Manager Usama Alwazir explained yesterday.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:07:43 05/16/02 Thu

World Gold Demand Reacts To Price Volatility

Global consumer demand for gold in the first quarter was 10% lower at 749.5 tonnes than that posted a year earlier according to the World Gold Council's quarterly survey Gold Demand Trends, published today.

Investment demand was 36% higher at 125.6 tonnes while jewellery demand fell 15% to 623.9 tonnes.

he Council said that while the first quarter was marked by renewed interest in gold investment, conditions were unfavourable for jewellery demand. World economic growth was weak, political worries undermined confidence and the sharp rise in the gold price in early February - which took many consumer markets by surprise - had a highly adverse effect in countries where gold demand is sensitive to price volatility.

Commenting on the figures, Haruko Fukuda, Chief Executive Officer of the World Gold Council said, "The first quarter was indeed disappointing for jewellery demand but as global economic recovery takes hold we look forward to better results. Meanwhile the continued growth in interest in gold investments is a truly exciting development to which we will continue to devote our efforts."

--
NOTES TO EDITORS:
Changes to gold demand statistics
This edition of Gold Demand Trends is the last one using the current system of data collection. The WGC has contracted Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd (GFMS) to compile gold demand data as from the next issue (Q2 2002).



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:04:48 05/16/02 Thu

AngloGold says believes finds gold in Peru

South African mining company AngloGold, is exploring two promising areas in Peru and is confident of striking gold

"We think we will find something in Peru ... I really don't want to comment on it at the moment,"

"Peru is a good place to be for greenfields discoveries."



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:03:40 05/16/02 Thu

Britons take first place with dash for more gold

British shoppers bought so much gold in the first quarter of this year that the UK has become Europe's largest market for gold jewellery.

Total gold demand in the UK rose to 14.1 tonnes against 13.7 tonnes a year earlier, and the WGC said gold sales in Britain represented the strongest first quarter on record.

The rise meant that during the period the UK overtook Italy to become the largest market in Europe.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:02:22 05/16/02 Thu

Gold demand falls by 40% in Q1

India's gold demand during the first quarter (Q1) of the current year fell sharply by 40 per cent to 149.80 tonnes from 249.7 tonnes during the same period of the previous year.

The main reason for the sharp fall in demand was the steep rise in gold prices, not only in India but also all over the world at the beginning of February, a World Gold Council (WGC) report said here on Thursday.

However, Pillai was optimistic about the future of the market. "The market looks promising for the coming months and we look forward to the demand being at par with last year's if not better," he said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 16:51:19 05/16/02 Thu

A Goldbug Ponders the Unthinkable



"Parabolic Curve". -- SilverDragon, 16:44:17 05/16/02 Thu

"Parabolic Curve".
I agree with Joe on... the "Parabolic Curve".
Until I see that I will 'HOLD' and 'BUY MORE & MORE'!!!
I don't know if I agree with Joe on... the "early stages".
I suspect, we could reach 1st 'Blow Off Top' as soon as June 28th.
Hope by then my 'silver' is no longer 'dragging'.
SilverDragon

“…We are in the early stages of what eventually will be a parabolic curve -
then, and only then, will we get out of gold…”
“…Q: What else are you recommending that investors do? ”
“…A: The only long positions I have are around gold stocks. …”

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020515/244/cz0h1.html



Gold -- Sharefin, 16:24:29 05/16/02 Thu

Rising gold split market

Gold demand statistics from the World Gold Council (WGC) show an interesting market schism in which year-on-year demand for gold jewellery in the first quarter fell even while investment demand increased by a third. Gold Fields chairman, Chris Thompson, who is to become president of the WGC in June, is hoping to popularise a drive towards growing gold as an investment as well as a jewellery item.



Gold -- Sharefin, 16:20:29 05/16/02 Thu

Newmont Sees Gold Price Rising, Wants To Close Hedges

"Clearly our goal, as we've stated publicly before, is to close out this
hedge book in an orderly and timely manner," Hansen said. "At the same time,
we'll look at opportunities to accelerate delivery into, and close out this
book."

Newmont President Lassonde said in the call that he expects the gold price to
rise and stressed that the company will retain its non-hedging stance.



Gold -- Sharefin, 15:42:42 05/16/02 Thu

SILENCE MAY NOT BE GOLDEN AT J.P. MORGAN CHASE

Because there have been relentless rumors that something is wrong at J.P. Morgan because of its complex financial derivatives business. And the sudden departure of someone of Mehta's stature and responsibility could signal that something is amiss with the bank's precious metals trades, gold speculators guessed.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:50:48 05/15/02 Wed

Are gold shares over-done?

There's growing agreement that the gold equity market is suffering from an irrational exuberance similar to the speculative bubble that powered internet shares to extraoardinary, but unrealistic multiples. Analysts in South Africa, the UK and the US warn that, for the short-term, the valuations of gold shares are beginning to look unrealistic.

Yet even though they believe the time is right for a "healthy breather', the fundamentals for the gold market remain strong: Investec, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan and others say the risk for the gold price is on the upside in the medium to longer-term.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:49:17 05/15/02 Wed

Barrick's Australian headache



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:46:16 05/15/02 Wed

Newmont's dire hedging prediction comes true

The gold business may be short on profits, but not irony. After crusading against gold hedging during the unruly takeover war for Australia's Normandy, Newmont [NEM] now sits with a massive loss on its acquired hedge book - exactly what it warned would happen to rivals.

There are not too many people who expected Newmont to report a hedging loss - $411 million as at the end of March and equal to nearly all Newmont's cash. The figure is recorded on the income statement, but is unrealised so does not affect cash earnings.

--
Lassonde remains resolutely bullish on gold, characterising the recent upward drift in prices as "climbing the wall of worry." He refuted suggestions that gold has lost its allure as a safe haven and believes it will endure as a portfolio diversifier used to counter the business cycle.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:04:22 05/15/02 Wed

Gold's high forecasts to boost stocks

A 20 percent gain for bullion would put the metal at $375 an ounce, a level no brokerage and precious metal analysts are willing to place on their forecasts. John Reade, a commodities analyst at UBS Warburg in London, on Wednesday raised his 2001 price target for gold to $305 an ounce from $296, with an average $310 for the remainder of this year. The metal Wednesday was at $308 in the spot market.

Reade in his report said the metal could trade in a range of $290 to $335 an ounce for the rest of this year. He granted that a sharp dollar drop could boost gold sharply. Several highly regarded economists, including Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, see that dollar decline coming imminently. More on gold at CBS MarketWatch.

"Our forecasts for the gold price assume that the U.S. dollar will not strengthen materially from the current levels and that, in the longer term, the dollar will weaken against other major currencies," Reade told me, quoting from his UBS Warburg Precious Metals report. "Should this weakening take place quickly or in the next 12 months, there is considerable potential for the gold price to surprise on the upside."



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:36:38 05/15/02 Wed

Joseph Granville's Profits of Doom

On top of that, look at the Standard & Poor's 500. It has carved up what we call a head-and-shoulders top curve -- left shoulder, head, right shoulder. The head was way up there at over 1,400. Today [May 7], it went down to 1,049 on the close. You were only 50 points away from breaking under the neckline of that four-year head-and-shoulders top.

If you come down to 990, as with the S&P 500 it looks like we might, it will not only come down to September lows, but it will go much lower -- for years! That's how important this is. Also, if the September lows are broken in the Dow, that will also extend the downtrend -- for what could even be for years. We don't even realize how serious this market is.

Q: What else are you recommending that investors do?

A: The only long positions I have are around gold stocks. I love them. I turned bullish on gold in the first week of January and have become increasingly bullish on it all the way up.

Gold is in the early stages of a major long-term rise. People are so used to [this pattern with gold]: It would go up, and then it would go down, go up, then go down. We have to leave that now. We are in the early stages of what eventually will be a parabolic curve -- then, and only then, will we get out of gold.

A: I put all my stress in reading the market through parabolics. A parabolic is a curve that's not only going up, but the angle of its rise becomes increasingly acute until the rise is going vertically. When you see that, you know that's the top.

That's how I called the exact day of the top in gold, at $875 an ounce on Jan. 20, 1980. And then, when I saw all these parabolic curves in the Nasdaq...I called the exact day of the top at 5,048. Then, I called the exact day of the bottom last Septembe



*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*--*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-
Of course. Truth is never out of date. There's only two things that can change the value of a stock -- supply and demand, the only thing I teach.
*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*--*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-*-



Fiat -- Sharefin, 09:08:57 05/15/02 Wed

US to probe forex deals

New York - The US Justice Department is investigating a group of the world's largest banks for allegedly using their online trading service to restrict competition in the foreign currency market, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The backers of FXAll include Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Group and Credit Suisse Group's CSFB.



Fiat -- Sharefin, 08:47:03 05/15/02 Wed

Rastogi arrested and bailed after RBG collapse

A number of banks fear they may have lost up to $500 million lent to RBG. Some are understood to be Gulf-based banks but RBG's biggest creditor was WestLB, the German financial services company that is seeking to finance the development of Wembley Stadium. WestLB is thought to have an exposure to RBG of up to $200 million. The bank declined to comment yesterday.

RBG Resources, primarily a metals and minerals producer, recorded sales of $1.1 billion in 2000. Concerns about the company, until recently known as Allied Deals, first surfaced after it was dropped in March by its auditor, PricewaterhouseCoopers, over concerns that its accounts might include non-existent transactions.



Fiat -- Sharefin, 08:41:38 05/15/02 Wed

WestLB reshuffle linked to mining group loss

WestLB, the German-owned investment bank, yesterday reshuffled its management and took its asset securitisation division under the umbrella of its global financial markets.

The move, which a spokesman called "pure housekeeping", is perceived internally to be a result of WestLB's association with RBG Resources, a metals company placed in administration this month.

It is believed WestLB has lost up to $200m. It offered trade-finance facilities to RBG backed by trade receivables in two separate transactions, dating back to 1999. One was organised by the asset securitisation division.

WestLB called in liquidators to RBG, which is majority-owned by the Indian national Viren Rastogi, after the mining group's auditors PricewaterhouseCoopers resigned over concerns its accounts could include non-existent transactions.

The Serious Fraud Office is investigating allegations of false accounting at RBG.



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:37:34 05/15/02 Wed

Peru Pushes Gold Mining As Conference Kicks Off

As a four-day gold conference opened late Tuesday, Peruvian government officials worked to ensure miners that projects in the Andean nation would benefit from a clear judicial framework.

Outside the downtown hotel where the miners were meeting, protesters marched against the government's economic policies while legislators in Congress considered constitutional changes that would toughen labor laws.

But inside, President Alejandro Toledo noted that Peru has become one of world's top ten gold producers.

"Investors will find in this government clear rules, and a transparent and stable judicial system," he said in a speech.

As base metal prices have dropped, gold has become a much more important mineral for the Peruvian economy.

From production of about 10 metric tons in 1990, Peru produced 138 tons of gold last year.

The gold conference, organized by the National Mining, Petroleum and Energy Society, will also examine projects being developed around the world, the outlook for the gold market and other issues.



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:35:19 05/15/02 Wed

COMEX gold firms early as dlr slips, CPI jumps

COMEX gold was back up early Wednesday in choppy currency-focused trade with traders also smelling a whiff of inflation from stronger-than-expected U.S. retail inflation data

"The market is trading a little spasmodically -- nervous and jerky -- just because of general uncertainty"



‘Most Beautiful Correction' -- SilverDragon, 07:58:41 05/15/02 Wed


This is the most beautiful correction that I can remember…

Years ‘Most Beautiful Correction' award.
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=XAU.X&time=5m

Now looking for the years ‘Most Beautiful Golden Spike”.



Goood Morning, from Imperial Beach, California!!! -- SilverDragon, 07:11:34 05/15/02 Wed


XAU up 1.38.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=XAU.X&time=5m

Nice way to start the day.



Fiat -- Sharefin, 06:47:39 05/15/02 Wed

Major banks on victim list in huge scam: US$1B fraud: prosecutors: Four charged in case of 'astonishing scope and magnitude'

----
Allied Deals is a Dealer member of the LBMA for Gold & Silver
THE GOOD DELIVERY LIST OF ACCEPTABLE REFINERS: GOLD



Fiat -- Sharefin, 06:44:51 05/15/02 Wed

Banks defrauded of $1 bln by metals traders--govt

Four New Jersey metal traders defrauded a number of major commercial banks around the world out of as much as $1 billion in a scandal reminiscent of the rogue Bank of Credit and Commerce International, which stole billions before collapsing a decade ago, U.S. government officials said on Tuesday.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:40:19 05/15/02 Wed

Gold Research Project Unveils New Industrial Application

Project AuTEK, an international initiative aimed an increasing industrial uses of gold, Wednesday unveiled a prototype room temperature air purification unit that strips carbon monoxide gases out of air.

The unit uses gold-based catalysts and is expected to be cheaper to manufacture and operate than designs based on other types of catalyst.

AuTEK unveils gold-catalyst air purifier

Project AuTEK, is a pioneering initiative between Mintek, Gold Fields, AngloGold and now Harmony Gold Mining, to pursue research into new industrial uses for gold, said Mintek's Mike Cortie.

The prototype, unveiled at the Mintek offices, has the unique feature of stripping poisonous carbon monoxide gas
from the air at room temperature, said project-leader Dr. Elma van der Lingen.

The new unit uses super-active catalysts based on gold. "It is expected to be considerably cheaper to manufacture and operate than potential designs based on other types of catalysts," she said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:34:13 05/15/02 Wed

Gold Council seeks chief

--
Pick me....pick me....pick me.....(:-))))

I'd vote for an ounce in everyones pockets.......politicians included......



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:32:40 05/15/02 Wed

Harmony in the Money as Rand Goes From Worst to Best



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:28:46 05/15/02 Wed

Newmont Mining Indicates 2002 Earnings Will Lag Expectations

Newmont Announces First Quarter Results and Forecasts Strong 2002 Performance



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:27:46 05/15/02 Wed

Warburg ups gold price forecast

UBS Warburg upgraded its average gold price forecast for 2002 on Wednesday to $305 an ounce from $296 an ounce previously.

"Gold has performed strongly in 2002, driven by reductions of the gold miners' hedge-books, and a welcome return of investment demand to the gold market," said UBS Warburg analyst John Reade.

Warburg also increased its 2003 forecasts by 6% to $320/oz from $302/oz previously. Its long-term forecast was raised from $300/oz to $325/oz.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:23:09 05/15/02 Wed

Time to unbundle?

THE Kebble empire no longer has the analysts following it as they once did, such is the level of shareholder disillusionment in the group that ultimately controls Western Areas. However, the longawaited restructuring proposals announced recently have attracted the attention of at least one leading analyst.
Sadly, the Kebble family will not cheer this renewal of interest, since the analyst's conclusion is that the restructuring proposal should be rejected by both Consolidated African Mines (CAM) and JCI Gold shareholders.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:11:06 05/15/02 Wed

TRANSFORMED HARMONY MAY LOOK APPETISING TO OTHERS



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:09:18 05/15/02 Wed

S. Africans punting new gold strike

South Africa may be heading for a new gold rush, with the first new gold find in decades piquing the interest of the local and North American majors alike. South Gold and Exploration, a private company headed by Johannesburg-based mining entrepreneur Rob Still, has dusted off a near-surface gold deposit on the eastern portion of the Witwatersrand basin, which has the potential to become a multimillion-ounce gold mine.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:08:00 05/15/02 Wed

$300 m hedging fracas in court

A right royal row is being waged in London between FirstRand Bank and American International Group (AIG). FirstRand is being sued by AIG for breach of contract for an amount I haven't been able to determine but which I'm told by a reliable source was originally about US$300m (depending on the exchange rate, give or take R3bn). AIG is reckoned in some quarters to be the world's largest insurance grouping, so it's not as though it's a lightweight opponent.
RMB managing director Mike Pfaff says the two groups are parties to a 10-year agreement relating to gold hedging that dates back to 1996 and was entered into at that time by FNB (the counter-party was AIG International (South Africa)). The agreement provided that AIG would give "advice and expertise to the Gold Division [to be established by FNB], now part of RMB, in return for which AIG earns a share [actually 50%] of the Division's profits."



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:05:30 05/15/02 Wed

Super Pit in the pits

The jewel in the crown of Barrick Gold Corp and Newmont Mining Corp's huge investments in Australia, the Kalgoorlie Super Pit, is in a bit of a hole.



Gold -- Sharefin, 06:03:10 05/15/02 Wed

J.P. Morgan Technical Analyst Tells Customers To Sell Gold

J.P. Morgan Chase is recommending that some of its customers "close all longs in gold," in a technical strategist research note.

The note argued that following gold's recent bout of strength, from a technical standpoint the metal appears overcooked and in need of a corrective retracement.

"Weekly and monthly momentum indicators (are) overbought, (which) make the risk reward of holding longs increasingly unattractive, even given a still possible new high," it argued.

"We continue to think that as long as $305.50 holds, (the $314-317 area) could be seen. However the lack of upwards momentum in recent days is a worry," it cautioned.

"A break of trendline support at $309 would trigger a large head-and-shoulders pattern targeting $300," it said.

"Daily momentum is mid-range still, giving room to the topside, however weekly momentum is now at levels that have seen $20-25 reversals on three occasions since last year's April $254.50 low."

"In addition, monthly momentum is more overbought than both the October 1999 $341 high, and the Feb 1996 $418 high," it noted.

"Given this momentum backdrop, we think it is time that more medium-term position takers start scaling out of longs, simply due to the fact that risks to longs are rising," it argued.

"We may have that one last new high. However, our bias would be to sell such strength, or a break of support below $305.50 if we do not see the upmove," it added

-------
The head & shoulder formation has a target closer to $302 than $300 and what's a few bucks on a bull run.



Personally I like the ascending triangle formation posted lower.



jpm re gold -- shell, 05:10:46 05/15/02 Wed

JF (JP Morgan rep on Bloomberg) ID#252201:
Copyright © 2002 JF/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
recommending gold for the long term. He said look for a buying opportunity during the short term pullback. Eecco Neumont, Goldfields, and placer dome. First mainstream felow that did not even mention ABX, guess word is getting out.



Silver -- Sharefin, 20:31:23 05/14/02 Tue

Silver Lease Rates

Have gone into backwardation with the 1-month rates @ 2.34% & 12-month rates @ 2.33%



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:29:04 05/14/02 Tue

NYMEX Gold Stocks

A big increase today at SCOTIA MOCATTA - +++ 115,817oz



...largest ‘Golden Gains' will be made... -- SilverDragon, 20:12:51 05/14/02 Tue

This post was found on another site.
Think this is a good reminder that, most likely, the largest ‘Golden Gains' will be made quickly near the end. It was during the move that this author tells about. It was during the best bull I ever rode also, 1986 - 1987.

“Just out of curiosity, I went back to the data from the greatest bull market in gold in modern history ( the Big One from mid-1977 to January 1980 ) and did a study of the day-to-day change in the London PM fix price for gold. Here's what I found:

Out of a total of about 655 trading days from the low in mid-'77 to the peak in January '80, there were 370 trading days in which the London PM fix was higher than the previous day's fix and there were 285 trading days in which the fix price was lower than the previous day's fix. In other words, even during the greatest modern-day bull market gold has ever experienced, nearly 44% of the time it was trading lower from the previous day's fix price!!! That's more than two days every week that traders witnessed a lowering of the the price of an ounce of gold from the previous day's trading!!!

Additionally, there were five months during that 31-month run-up in which the average price of gold was actually lower than the previous month's average. No doubt people were wondering at that time, "Is the bull market over?".

Even as late as August 23, 1979 the price of gold was only $310.05 -- almost exactly where it is today! But only about 20 weeks later, the price of gold had skyrocketed to its peak of about $875 per ounce -- a 180% increase in fewer than 5 months!!! Think how tempting it would have been to sell out when gold hit, say, $400 ( keep in mind that at the beginning of that bull run, the price was a piddly $137.50 ) , only to watch with regret and frustration as it continued exploding upward past $500, past $600, past $700, and, finally, past $800 per ounce!!! The lesson is this: it is in the latter stages of bull markets where most of the money is made.

Finally, I found it interesting that on May 15th, 1979 the price of gold was set at about $256 per ounce. The price had risen about 86% from its mid-'77 low. Not bad, of course, but not exactly the stuff of goldbugs' dreams, right? However, by the end of the year, a mere 7 and 1/2 months later, the price of gold had doubled to $512!!! Then, within about three weeks of that, the price shot up an additional 70% to its peak of about $875!!!”



Fiat -- Sharefin, 19:34:46 05/14/02 Tue

Fed's Parry Sounds Softer on Inflation

But a potential risk to the outlook remained from the stock market, worries about corporate profitability and related concerns about the quality of earnings following some recent high-profile accounting scandals.

In separate comments, the New York Fed's McDonough said that if Corporate America failed to improve disclosure practices on derivatives, another derivates-related financial disaster could spark knee-jerk and unnecessary reforms.



Something to consider… -- SilverDragon, 15:50:15 05/14/02 Tue


Something to consider…

$27.01, in the year 2001, has the same "purchase power" as $17.33, in the year 1987.

$17.33, in the year 1987, was the 1st USAGX ‘Blow Off Top' on April 13th.

http://www.eh.net/hmit/ppowerusd/

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=usagx&sid=0&o_symb=usagx&freq=2&time=20&x=43&y=20



correction arc -- SilverDragon, 11:27:32 05/14/02 Tue

Nice correction arc on the XAU 5min
15 min into break out.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=XAU.X&time=5m



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:39:18 05/14/02 Tue

Gold & channels


The formation looks very similar to the ascending triangle formation shown here which comes from here





Fiat -- Sharefin, 05:49:46 05/14/02 Tue

Inefficient Markets



Gold & GATA -- Sharefin, 03:51:36 05/14/02 Tue

Defending Gata

I have a great deal of respect for Chris Thompson's efforts for his company and for gold; however, I cannot let his comments about the GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Association) case pass unanswered. First I have to say that, as a corporate executive in two successful small corporations, which were both financed out of savings, and used not one cent of bank-created credit (debt), I can safely say that our unconventional business model would never have been possible if we had to rely on bank debt for capital. We would never have been approved, no matter how sound our business plan, because it ran counter to the interests of the banking industry as a whole.
Because of this, I find it appalling that modern executives cannot find it in themselves to act other than like some mediaeval castrati singing the sweet, but unnatural, songs imposed on them by their banking forebears. Perhaps a more modern analogy would be that of a modern heroin addict who faithfully sings the songs of his dealer-supplier in order to ingratiate himself, and thereby obtain his daily "fix". I find it totally absurd that the creators of the most powerful form of wealth in the world, and of the ultimate form of money cannot find it in themselves to find the means to cure themselves of their habitual use of their financial pusher's debt-based "dope". So long as the industry is dependent upon its bankers for capital, it will never be allowed to create any sort of investment role for gold: the greatest single threat to their fiat currency - the source of their power.

The 'Reg Howe' case

Judge Lindsay ruled that Howe was an "inappropriate plaintiff", and therefore had no "standing" in the initial filing: as an anti-trust case. That is possibly a legitimate point of view, as he is not an injured company. He dismissed the request to amend the filing to include the directors of the BIS as defendants, on the basis of a breach of fiduciary duty with proximate injury, without comment. That amendment clearly would have given Reg Howe standing as an injured party under US tort law. Indeed, if Reg Howe has no standing as a wrongly injured shareholder, then the Deminor case in France, where the plaintiffs are also injured shareholders by the same BIS act, has no standing either: yet it stands. Judge Lindsay is clearly "mistaken". I would have appealed.

In my own personal experience in private consultations with our corporate attorneys, I have had three different, commercially unrelated attorneys tell our officers and our directors that, in the US, cases are no longer tried on the merits of the law, but on the politics of the law. This has been confirmed repeatedly in our corporate experience by the court's refusal to accept cases where we are the plaintiffs, and where the written contract law is totally on our side of the issue.

Eventually it has become so severe that attorneys will take a case, and yet refuse to proceed with it, when they are confronted by the court's stonewalling. We have been able to obtain justice only by making it plain in face-to-face confrontations with the judge that we know we will lose, but intend to win on the appeal. I cannot emphasise enough to Americans that they need to realise just how corrupt the US judicial system has become at the hands of eight years of the Clinton Administration's judicial subversion, and by the complicit maintaining of those officials in office through some misguided notion of "bi-partisanship" by the Bush Administration.

And finally Mr Thompson

Lastly, Chris Thompson dismisses the case as "circumstantial". I repeat my former statement that under US law one can be convicted of capital murder, and be executed on circumstantial evidence alone. The GATA evidence is overwhelming enough to at least merit a trial, when even criminal defendants are executed under the same standard of evidence. Non-Americans may not like that, but is the law in the US. This case is a clear miscarriage of justice, if for no other reasons than those cited by James Turk in his commentary on the case and regardless of my comments herein. The obvious disregard for the merits of the amended filing are so gross that it is difficult to attribute the dismissal to anything but Machiavellian political machinations.



The Gold Standard is a Human Standard -- Sharefin, 21:47:23 05/13/02 Mon

The Gold Standard is a Human Standard

Harry Schultz, famous newsletter publisher, writer, analyst, freedom fighter and philosopher for decades, has given us one of the best definitions of the gold standard.

The Gold Standard is a Human Standard
By Harry D. Schultz

“GOLD vs. the PRICE of gold: I have written several times over the last 36 years and I want to restate this principle with force: I am pro-gold regardless of the price! I don't fight for gold in order to make a profit on gold shares, bars or coins! Gold is important for far more important reasons and I would be embarrassed to promote gold only for monetary gain. Gold is the essential linchpin for our individual (not group or nation) freedom. Gold belongs to the monetary system as a governing factor. We belong back on the gold standard. I used to compromise and say a quasi-gold standard will probably do, a modified Bretton Woods version.

And that may be what will evolve, but in my view we should fight for a pure gold standard, the old-fashioned form, because it worked! And not just for fiscal reasons! It forced nations to limit their debt, spending and socialist schemes, which meant sound behavioural habits were formed around those limitations, and those habits rubbed off on everyone. People were more honest, moral, decent, kind, because the system was honest and moral. Cause and effect. Today we have cause and effect of the opposite standard: no limits on what governments can do, control, dictate; no limit on government debt, welfare or socialist schemes. There is no governor on the government.

This habit rubbed off on the public, causing them to go into debt, lose respect for the system and morality. The effect brings us more divorce, fraud, crime, illegitimate births, broken homes. When the money of any country loses its base/backing there is no standard for any behaviour. Money sets a standard that spreads into every area of human activity. No paper money backing, no morality. That is why gold coin money worked so well and why the U.S. moved into paper money very slowly, carefully, keeping the paper-$'s backed 100 % by gold. But slowly, like slicing a sausage, that backing was removed in stages, ‘til now there is none. The effect of this cause is all around us.

Violent films reflect violent society reflect no respect throughout society. Layer by layer, we are corrupted when money loses certainty. Today's stock market bubble is part of the scene as will be tomorrow's mega-crash and mega-recession. Big Brother was made possible through the absence of automatic controls and loss of individual freedom via non-convertible currency. So, pass the word. Fight for gold. Not for profits, though they are helpful and help us fight for individual freedom, but for a future that returns to sanity in various standards. If we have a gold standard we get a golden human standard! The two are intertwined. They are the ultimate cause and effect. Gold blesses.”


Chevalier Harry D. Schultz
c/o International Harry Schultz Letter
PO Box 622, CH-1001, Lausanne, Switzerland
email: hsl.mentor@skynet.be



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:19:32 05/13/02 Mon

Australia's Equigold Lifts Gold Hedging To 802,000 Ounces

Australian gold miner Equigold NL Tuesday
said it has extended its gold hedging by 180,000 ounces to 802,000 ounces.
The latest hedging transaction covers most of the planned production from
its Kirkalocka project near Mount Magnet in Western Australia state, and will
see calendar quarterly deliveries of 10,000 ounces commencing December 2002
and concluding March 2007, it said.
The company secured a delivery price under this transaction of A$700 an
ounce of gold from Kirkalocka, which is forecast to produce a total 285,000
ounces with first production scheduled from August, it said.
As part of the latest hedging transaction, the company has also taken
75,000 ounces of gold call options, expiring over a year from December 2010.
"This transaction brings the company's total gold committed under forward
sales contracts to 802,000 ounces," which represents 54% of current proven and
probable reserves, it said in a statement.
The level of hedging is a prudent balance between revenue protection while
retaining exposure to any future gold price rise, it said.
"It is currently not the board's intention to significantly increase
gold hedging in the foreseeable future," it said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:18:26 05/13/02 Mon

Swiss SNB Sells 7.7 Tons Of Gold In 10 Days To May 10

The latest sales brought to 506.9 tons of surplus gold the central bank has sold since the beginning of the SNB's program in May 2000 to sell 1,300 tons of reserves.



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:15:24 05/13/02 Mon

COMMODITIES-Investors cling to gold amid dollar nerves

Gold triumphed again as the preferred option on Monday, with prices eyeing their highest levels in more than two years as investors tuned into dollar nervousness and continued tension in the Middle-East.

Despite a modest sell-off prompted by mainly profit-taking in the wake of a stronger performance by U.S equity markets, gold looked well supported while the dollar struggled.



Gold -- Sharefin, 21:10:52 05/13/02 Mon

Barclays Capital: Gold Speculative Sentiment To Be Tested



XGO PROTEST CAMPAIGN -- Sharefin, 21:07:42 05/13/02 Mon

XGO PROTEST CAMPAIGN

Australian Gold Index

By way of background, Standard and Poor's are contracted to calculate indices for the Australian markets. The Australian Stock Exchange has agreed to use the "GICS" or Global Industry Classification Standard.

GICS does NOT have a gold index. Rather, Gold is "blended" into a Materials Index.

Gold is one of Australia's 4 major export industries. It sits behind coal, but almost on a par with crude oil exports and iron ore exports in 2001/2002.

We want our Gold Index back, so please help...

Send an email to one-two-three ( or ALL ) of the companies listed on the above link and let them know what we want...

WE WANT OUR GOLD INDEX BACK!



Silver -- Sharefin, 21:00:24 05/13/02 Mon

Silver about to Break Out



Sunshine -- SilverDragon, 11:50:16 05/13/02 Mon

Looks like 'Double Bottom' on the Sunshine chart.
Sunshine just may come up tomorrow!!!
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?&s=SSMRE&time=5m



Gold -- Sharefin, 10:37:10 05/13/02 Mon

Searching for Mr. And Mrs. Gold-bar

In that area of what the gold bugs call "reserve-rot," Murphy, who forecasts gold prices will double, triple and maybe quadruple in coming years, has some support. John Reade of UBS Warburg in London is on record with his view that years of paltry investment in new mines eventually will take their toll on the world's gold reserves. Gold mining stocks usually are valued according to the amount of proven gold reserves they have in the ground.

"Slowing exploration expenditure has led to fewer credible gold projects under development," Reade says in a report that dates back to late 2001. "New mine supply will decline sharply from the end of 2002 at the fastest rate since 1976." In other words: reserves of the metal could fall far short of demand in coming years.



Me DROOY is DRAGGING -- SilverDragon, 08:19:00 05/13/02 Mon


Me ‘DROOY is DRAGGING' this morning.
Had ‘DRY POWDER' so just had to ‘BUY MORE'!!!



Mrw @ “ …my 'dry powder' is fast turning into itching powder…” -- SilverDragon, 05:46:32 05/13/02 Mon


Mrw, know what you mean.
It is very hard for me to keep dry powder in this market.
Think those who do will look back from June 28th and say … “If I had only known.”



Sharefin @ “Methinks silver is a silver soon to explode.” -- SilverDragon, 05:38:45 05/13/02 Mon

My $11.00 & $5.00 silver will be glad to hear that.
Been real dark down there in dat hole.



Mrw -- Sharefin, 03:29:38 05/13/02 Mon

Yes it seems that Chris might just be the man for the job.
He certainly seems a level-headed go-getter.

Gold, I feel, has embarked upon a journey that will be hard to stop.
The hedgers have to cover more & more so as the price rises.
The shorts have to cover the more it rises and can no longer short safely without hedging their shorts (going long)

The momentum of the POG seems to be slowly & steadily rising and the more that this happens the more they have to cover.

It's got to the stage of a catch 22 situation with no back door readily available.
When the price spikes to quick & too fast then it can readily be sent back down again.
But this slow inexhaustible rise is so strong & powerful.
Still though I expect the big guns to be brought out to quell the rise - albeit only temporarily.

It kind of feels like a pot of water simmering and slowly the heat is being turned up.
All those short must be feeling the heat to a degree that they now have to focus on covering.

Trouble is that the liquidity of physical must be drying up so the only out is through paper gold which needs to be backed by physical.

I would hazard a guess that most of the covering done so far by hedgers has been through paper gold rather than physical so therefore the positions aren't closed out.

The next tier up to the $320-325 level should be sufficient to propel the price much higher which should spark of the derivatives.

Then the game begins in earnest.



Sharefin - WGC -- Mrw, 01:32:34 05/13/02 Mon

I agree. I am excited though by the Thompson move, plus the fact that 'something' has attracted a further $150 Mill. from the mining community for the WGC budget (detail is sketchy on this, strangely). I doubt that the extra money has come from the hedgers - mmm?
It suggests to me that many quiet meetings have taken place and a new plan is already formulated which we will soon see unfold?
_________________
Gold having a storming morning - long may it be so.

Best to you and your excellent site.



Mrw -- Sharefin, 01:16:50 05/13/02 Mon

If Thompson can't do anything then they should disband the body.
Methinks it's a toffee nosed consortium of folkes who like talking about gold & whilst quaffing fine wines......And then they take home fine wages.....

But then in this day and age these sort of regulatory bodies abound.

So far historically I feel that they have done little for the industry & in some ways delt the mining industry a savage blow by endorsing hedging.
The council seems more of a rich boys club for the magnates & wealthy rather than a down to earth go-get-em style group doing their best for the industry.

But then I am somewhat cynical so please excuse my sombre vein.(:-))))



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:46:25 05/13/02 Mon

Standard Bank - Precious Metals Report

On the charts there is a strong band of support evident between $308 and $305, and last Wednesday's dip towards the top end of this range found willing buyers. On the upside light resistance has been established at $313 although the Funds may still have the $320 level (last seen in February 2000) in their sights. Silver appears to be on the verge of a technical break to the upside and a close above $4.68 would set up a test of $4.78, then $4.85. There is good support provided by the 40 day moving average at $4.57.



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:34:43 05/13/02 Mon

Gujarat banks face heavy withdrawals

Over 400 depositors made a beeline to Valsad People¡s Co-operative Bank at Valsad on Friday to get back their gold mortgaged with the bank against loans taken by them following reports of Rs 27 crore loss made by the bank in trading in government securities with Mumbai-based Home Trade.



Silver -- Sharefin, 00:29:10 05/13/02 Mon

Silver falls behind Gold

Industry experts from Hatton Garden in London to Tokyo say that sliding demand from end-users has turned the metal into gold's cosmetically -challenged sister.

Copper smelters, which produce a good deal of silver as a by-product of the copper-smelting process, are therefore being lumbered with high carrying costs as they struggle to dump an increasingly unwanted product.

The industry is awash with talk of silver shipments to end-users being delayed by a month and more as inventories build up.

Sumitomo Metal Mining, one of the world's biggest copper producers, which is also involved in precious metals, has gone on record as saying silver is increasingly becoming difficult to shift.

It says that silver, a key ingredient in photographic film, is also being impacted by an increasing switch by Japanese consumers to digital cameras instead.



WGC and Thompson - Sharefin -- Mrw, 00:25:06 05/13/02 Mon

Yes - Looks like much is going on here. Personally, I expect great things from Thompson.
the marketing budget for the WGC rises to $200 Million from next year - up from the current $50 Mill.
Can you imagine what this amount, spent wisely, can do for the global promotion of Gold as an asset class and investment? I feel Thompson will drop the jewellry slant and flush out those who'd resist such a change.

Dollar looks very weak this morning. I smell toast in the air and my 'dry powder' is fast turning into itching powder.

Silver could well steal the show this week with a break of $4.75 maybe causing a shorts' rush for the fire exit?
We'll see.



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:22:40 05/13/02 Mon

Has gold regained its glitter?

Besides worries about the strength of the US economic recovery, the Middle East crisis and the weakness of the US dollar, there are technical reasons for the latest rise in gold prices. Many producers had reduced their hedge books i.e. they lowered the amount of gold sold in the forward market.

This could bring about 8 million-10 million fewer ounces to the market this year, or about $3 billion worth of gold.

Central banks worldwide have long held part of their reserves in the form of gold. At the end of the year 2001, gold reserves at central banks and monetary authorities around the world stood at around 950 million ounces, which is well below the level that prevailed in the 1970s.

In addition, holding reserves in the form of gold also carries a substantial opportunity cost. Traditionally gold earned no return unlike financial securities such as Treasury bills or bank deposits. Although this has changed in recent years with the development of the gold leasing market, which allows central banks to earn around 2 percent a year (depending on maturity) on the gold holdings they are willing to lend to the market place, this is still considerably lower than the return on other assets. Around 118 countries including several in the Middle East lend more than 35 percent of their gold reserves.

----
Hmmmm.... 35% of 950 million ounces is 332.5 million ounces or 10,341 tons of bullion......

And the writer of this article is the chief executive officer of Jordinvest.

I wonder where he sources his data from???



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:14:23 05/13/02 Mon

Price of gold quietly trending upwards

Slowly and with little fanfare, gold prices have been inching higher for more than a year now. Typically when an asset class or segment of the stock market begins to thaw as gold has, the sector will be prominently featured in investing magazines and highlighted on the financial programmes on television.
But managers of gold-oriented mutual funds and other industry experts say they are disappointed by the lack of attention being given to the yellow metal.

"Gold mutual funds are outperforming every other market sector," said Dick Stevenson, director of sales for Monterey Funds, which manages a gold-oriented mutual fund.

The lack of attention is partly the result of a 20-year bear market in gold, which has sapped investor enthusiasm, but also "few people really understand what moves gold prices", said James Stack, editor of InvesTech Research, a stock market newsletter.

"If we had soaring inflation, you would be seeing a lot more attention being paid to gold, because that's what people think moves gold prices," Mr Stack said.

"I don't know of a single big bank that is selling," said Clay Hoes, senior equity analyst at American Express and an expert on the precious metals market.

As gold prices have climbed, the most obvious assumption is that gold exploration will increase, the supply will increase, the demand will be met and prices will stabilise.

That seems to make economic sense, but the reality is that it takes three to five years to bring a gold mine into production, according to Mr Hoes.

So the imbalance could persist for years.

Not only that, current production levels of existing mines were declining, experts said.



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:08:57 05/13/02 Mon

High noon for the World Gold Council?

There is an old trick used by public relations people in London when they want to "hide" an announcement. They stick it out late on a Friday, preferably on a day when other things are going on. So it is no wonder there is some deep suspicion here about the departure of Haruko Fukuda as chief executive of the World Gold Council.

Only one thing seems clear: Chris Thompson will have to take the reigns at the Council for most of this year. Firstly, the "What should the Gold Council Be Doing?" inquiry has to be finished by the consultant, Bain & Co (the Johannesburg office is involved rather than one in London). The result should be with members by the end of July. The debate should be fun but, with so many different and hard-held opinions, it will take some time for a compromise between the members to be reached. Judging by what Miningweb has been told by some of those who have taken part in Bain's questioning exercise, the Council is unlikely to survive in its present form. Thompson said in his farewell to Fukukda statement: "The Council will soon be entering a new phase in its existence and is looking to restructure and remodel itself."



Ron - thanks -- Sharefin, 00:04:29 05/13/02 Mon

'Tis a pleasure and an obcession.(:-)))



Periodic Ponzi Update PPU -- $hifty, 22:36:16 05/12/02 Sun

http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm

Periodic Ponzi Update PPU

Nasdaq 1,600.85 + Dow 9,939.92 = 11,540.77 divide by two = 5,770.385 Ponzi

Down 39.445 from last week!

Interesting how we find ourselves just above the well defended 5750 Ponzi level.
It will be an interesting week.

Thanks for the link RossL

Go GATA
Go Gold

$hifty



Sharefin, 08:54:46 05/12/02 Sun -- Dandelion, 20:56:27 05/12/02 Sun

Sharefin

Thanks for the thousands and thousands of hours of research you share with us for free. Yada, Yada, Yada

Thanks a Million or TWO

Ron



Silver Dragon -- Sharefin, 20:38:51 05/12/02 Sun

Methinks silver is a silver soon to explode.
The coiled snake comes to mind when I view it's charts.(:-)))



Fiat -- Sharefin, 20:35:40 05/12/02 Sun

Contrarian Chronicles

Market reality is still a 40% drop from here

Flickering rallies aside, don't you wonder why the markets are lower a year
into a generous helping of interest-rate cuts? It always worked before. Well,
almost always.
By Bill Fleckenstein

Last week, a rally stoked by Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs) cast a fleeting,
feel-good haze over Wall Street. With its eventual dispersal, our festering
economic problems will return to the fore. How did they get here? Via a
stock-market bubble conceived and coaxed to monstrous proportions by the
Federal Reserve. The majority of investors, and many economists, deny or scorn
this fact -- placing them squarely in the way of another 30% or 40% decline in
the broad market. Car? Home? Home equity?

It's important for everyone to understand that we are still headed for trouble
because we are suffering from the aftermath of an asset bubble. This is
continually lost on people. Our problems were created two, three, four or five
years ago, as the Fed kept inflating the bubble. Subsequently, the Fed has
tried to fight off the problems, but it has succeeded only in postponing the
inevitable. That analysis is important because of what it portends. Hardly
anyone believes that we had the biggest asset bubble in history, and that the
consequences are going to be horrific. This is the minority view.



Delta.au, @ 11:00:32 05/12/02 Sun ... I get the feeling that… -- SilverDragon, 15:07:32 05/12/02 Sun



Delta.au,

I get the feeling that…
this person is gradually graduating from being a ‘Bear to a Bull'.

I strongly suspect, that by the time we reach the 1st top, and it is time to switch out…
they will be a Bull.



Lenny's Latest Musings ... -- Delta.au, 11:00:32 05/12/02 Sun
Snippets from Lenny Kaplan's Latest Report (12 May)


This is what it sounds like to me…

Sounds like a BULL:
“…this market continues to look, act, and feel like a bull….”

“…should silver ever be able to rear its head above the $4.80 price level, I do expect a very large move to the upside…” (OK, "should" is 'bearish')

“…the dominant feature, in my opinion, is that gold producers are buying back their previously sold gold in the hope, or the expectation, of higher gold price levels to come…”



Sounds like a BEAR:
“While I still like being short silver at these levels, predominantly as a minor hedge against long gold positions, I would only do so lightly.”

“…While the odds still favor that silver will fail at these levels…”

“To quote Mr. Thom Calendra, of CBS Marketwatch, "A month from now, a year from now, five years from now....the price of gold will be three to six times what it is now". Perhaps a bit of literary license in his estimates, but nevertheless, it is clear he is bullish.”

Sounds like to me…
a ‘Bear' wanting to put on the clothes of a ‘Bull'.

Think by the time they do, today's fashion, will have changed.



Hang on Baby, this ‘Bull is a gona FLY'!!!
(IMVHO)



Lenny's Latest Musings ... -- Delta.au, 11:00:32 05/12/02 Sun

Snippets from Lenny Kaplan's Latest Report (12 May)
While the gold market was, officially, lower in price for the last week, down a bit over a dollar, this market continues to look, act, and feel like a bull. Every attempt to plumb technical support levels, every test of lower prices, was met with buying by speculators, investors and the commercial trade. Repurchases of gold, formerly sold forward by gold producers, continue to be the predominant supportive factor as more and more firms announce either their intentions to reduce to size of their hedge books or the news that they have already done so. As an example, even the greatest advocate of the aggressive use of derivatives, Barrick, announced that even they are looking to reduce the size of their hedge book. The financial press keeps assigned a "war premium" to the price of gold as events in the Middle East continue to escalate into more violence. This "war premium" has some validity, in my opinion, but that is only the easy answer, compact enough to satisfy casual readers in the press but not truly indicative of the bullish nature of the market.

Silver was up 5.5 cents for the week and is now knocking on the door of massive technical resistance levels at the $4.75 to $4.80 price levels. While silver prices have been to these levels on numerous occasions over the past couple of years, and failed, this time may be a bit different. For the last week, there has been much talk of one major New York firm borrowing silver heavily, and silver lease rates have risen to 1.4% for the one-year maturity from about 1%. With one-year Libor rates now at 2.63%, it wont take much of a rise in lease rates to force the silver market into backwardation, traditionally a most bullish signal.

Speculators in this market still remember, all too well, last years meteoric rise in lease rates and the resultant bull move that was created. This time, speculative forces seem a lot less anxious to short the silver market. While I still like being short silver at these levels, predominantly as a minor hedge against long gold positions, I would only do so lightly. More importantly, should silver ever be able to rear its head above the $4.80 price level, I do expect a very large move to the upside. While the odds still favor that silver will fail at these levels, the chances are now not as certain as before. Silver prices in the next week or two will first be watching lease rates, and will, secondarily, be watching the price movements of gold.


Getting back to the gold market, where rising prices can be attributed to many external influences such as the precarious state of the USD, the continuing decline in the equities markets, etc; the dominant feature, in my opinion, is that gold producers are buying back their previously sold gold in the hope, or the expectation, of higher gold price levels to come. Last weeks commentary mentioned how truly exceptional such a turn of events has been. One naturally expects that the only seller in any bull market would be the producer of that product, now we have the situation where even the producers are buying. Question...who is left to sell?

Andy Smith, the noted analyst from Mitsui, estimates that there is still about 3000 tons of gold sold forward on the books of mining concerns. As prices continue their bull run, such mining concerns will get more and more twitchy to repurchase these tons in the marketplace. To quote Mr. Thom Calendra, of CBS Marketwatch, "A month from now, a year from now, five years from now....the price of gold will be three to six times what it is now". Perhaps a bit of literary license in his estimates, but nevertheless, it is clear he is bullish.

On the other hand, lets look at the opinions of SG, a decided bear on gold prices. This international bank is "not convinced" that gold can sustain itself above the $300 price level and it remains "skeptical" about the metal's upside potential in the long run. Much of their opinion is based upon the hypothesis that the USA economy will soon turn around and that the USD is due for further appreciation in the shorter-term. To quote, "It does not seem that fundamentals specific to gold are sufficiently bullish to counteract further appreciation in the Dollar". And, believe it or not (I don't, at all), they foresee increasing sales by the Central Banks of the world, as "Central Banks will lose the incentive to lend, with short term lending rates near zero.....the only alternative for Central Banks seeking leverage is to sell".

It is always beneficial to examine the market from both sides, to hear both the pro and con arguments in any discussion of the gold market. But, personally, I see the arguments put forward by SG as most improbable. Readers are welcome to form their own opinions, but I do not envision the case where the USD will appreciate handsomely in the near future. Just look at the charts.

Mr. Chris Thompson, the incoming head of the World Gold Council, appears to be restructuring the organization as per his promises. This gentleman understands, perhaps better than many in the industry, that the future of gold prices depend heavily on investor demand, and that jewelry, while a mainstay of demand, will never create higher gold prices that have any degree of sustainability. Haruko Fukuda, formerly Chief Executive, resigned.



daily chartist, gold futures chart, ABX and PDG -- offal, 10:20:27 05/12/02 Sun

"Gold and gold stocks are seeing money come their way and it's at the expense of equities.

"Buyers both big and small are content at this time to stand pat, having discounted this quarter's earnings numbers and economic data. Bullion has a good chance of making short-term targets without too much work. Gold stocks, however, face overhead resistance and will probably see back-and-fill trading. "

"Bullion is posting a bullish 'bowl'. The first
stages of the rally were set last summer when
price began making higher lows."

http://www.ottawabusinessjournal.com/articles/read_article.cfm?aid=qstwznmgpnnqstwmlzgmmnqstlpwzl&from_search=1



Keynes: Lavender & Bolshevik -- Charleston Voice, 09:51:10 05/12/02 Sun

SUGAR KEYNES
http://www.knology.net/~bilrum/keynes.htm

"By a continuous process of inflation, governments can confiscate,
secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.
By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily;
and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some....The
process engages all of the hidden forces of economic law on the side of
destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million can
diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes Economic Consequences of the Peace,
1920



Charts -- Sharefin, 09:43:51 05/12/02 Sun

Euro - DX - Bonds - Gold



Mrw -- Sharefin, 09:38:53 05/12/02 Sun

Thanks but take care as they are the idle musings of a delusional goldbug.(:-)))



Message to Central Banks -- Charleston Voice, 09:23:23 05/12/02 Sun

To: Central Banks, Secretariats, Governeurs, Concerned Others

Sirs and Madams:

Regarding this recent business of Dinsa Mehta's supposed "leaving" the employ of JP Morgan has
caused us to review basic documents which may have prompted his early "release". Mehta, global
head of commodity (gold) risks at Morgan, is now widely presumed to be the conduit between
Morgan's gold derivatives and very likely the US Treasury. Evidence is now coming to light that
Mehta could have been the surrogate for the US Government's conspiracy to suppress the world gold
price, and as a consequence elevate the value of the US dollar to an artificially and unsustainable
level. We are asking you to re-visit John Hathaway's "JP Morgan to the Rescue".

In addition, as the Enron debacle continues to reveal the dishonesty in American banking, judicial,
accounting, and congressional institutions, the news release from the President of the University of
California should be given your careful review as well.
JP Morgan's risk is singularly believed to hold US$38 billion in gold derivatives with a total
derivatives risk exposure of US$33+ trillion. See: "The JPM Derivatives Monster"
.

We now conclude the magnitude of the central bank gold reserves divestiture is enormous and
cataclysmic - - between 10,000 and 18,000 tonnes. Those of you who have leased your gold reserves
to any number of select banking entities will not have your gold returned. It is gone, and can only be
replaced from gold reserves still to be mined. We feel that should Dinsa Mehta be deposed by US
government investigating committees Morgan's duplicity in these ventures would be exposed;
consequently, by "releasing" him from Morgan's employ distances Mehta from the likelihood of
ever giving a public deposition.

Shelter from the impending gold crisis can be obtained as outlined in our PROTOTYPE which
specifies in part:

1. Re-purchase your gold reserves incrementally, on world bourses
2. Gradual diminution in US dollar reserves
3. Suspend all gold lease agreements
4. Make every effort to reverse existing "swaps" or leases
5. Should your state charters permit, acquire limited ownership in publically-traded precious metals
mining exploration companies. Use state-chartered financial institutions if permissible.*
6. Disengage and absolve yourselves from any monetary agreements with the US Treasury or world
banking authorities.

* detailed in Prototype's Appendix C

Just as troublesome is the persistence of GATA and their "army"
which promises to be more efficient in exposing this gold derivatives scheme than any lawsuit which,
if accepted, could have been prolonged for months, if not years, by US regulatory, US Treasury, and
banking authorities. In effect the "truth" could have been delayed and postponed indefinitely. Not so
now. Although not of Transylvanian origin as far as we know, GATA has forged the stake which is
soon to be plunged deeply into the evil heart of dishonest money.

Stay the course. Best wishes to all,

- - Central Bank Oversight & Monitor (CBOM)

To subscribe to the Charleston Voice, send message to:
bilrum@knology.net subj: SUBSCRIBE



Sharefin - Gold Rally charts -- Mrw, 09:03:54 05/12/02 Sun

Thanks for those - certainly helps put the current moves into perspective. I'll save them for those moments when the foolish urge to take some profit sneaks up on me......



JPS - Euro -- Mrw, 08:59:27 05/12/02 Sun

As I see it this is a mirror of yesterday. It isn't trading as far as I know and there are no newswires supporting the move either. Yesterday the Euro 'ran up', then the ticker returned to near Friday's close.
I suspect the feeds are being tested, but the links to sites have not been disabled?



Gold -- Sharefin, 08:56:53 05/12/02 Sun

Bullion for you: it's a new golden era

But this latest rally has raised some serious questions about the precious metal, and even the gold cynics are taking a second look. The price rise is looking far more sustainable than at any time in the last five years and there are already analysts suggesting that the days of weak, volatile gold could be over. Bullion is suddenly looking like a serious asset class again, and the emphasis now is on working out what factors are going to keep the good times rolling.

Bears of gold still need convincing that the good times are here to stay. As many point out, industrial demand for gold - particularly from the electronics sector - has fallen in recent years and shows few signs of imminent recovery. In the jewellery market, which accounts for 85 per cent of world gold use, big consumers like the US and Japan are showing a growing preference for platinum. But the bulls believe all this is actually good news, and that gold's status will be reinforced when things finally start to pick up. As one Toronto analyst says: "Gold has finally got some decent fundamentals beyond being the knee-jerk response to a load of bad news elsewhere."

For the first time in three years, a majority of analysts believe gold could finish the year above $300/oz.



Charts Online -- Sharefin, 08:54:46 05/12/02 Sun

Charts to view

Looking bullish as ever.(:-)))

Here's some comments I made in an email when asked if the POG & stocks looked to toppy.
------
I agree that the stocks are way over valued at these levels.
It's as though they have already valued in the next $20 move in the gold price.

Some of the indices I am looking at look to be topping out or working up against past resistance levels.
Personally I am loathe to predict the short term trend as we could readily jump up hard from here as easily as we could sell off.

Trouble is in these bull markets the indices can stay in the overbought condition all the way up fooling folks along the way.
In the 1979 bull run the RSI was in a constant overbought condition for years.

Whispers also abound as to the state of some hedges & derivatives problems.
At levels over $305 these can cut into play and propel fresh buying which will lead to further highs.

I would guess that another $10 or $15 will push the markets into a self defeating buying frenzy which won't contain the prices.
Personally I would be a holder doing the next year rather than a trader unless one is gifted with special insights.

Within the uptrend currently in place with gold there is plenty of room for the price to fall $20 yet the trend remain uphill.
So downhill looks contained to $290 yet uphill is unlimited.

I posted recently a piece by Jim Sinclair where he claims that research done by H Schultz & himself have put the derivatives that exist into play utilizing their notional values at a gold price of $354. If you've not read this commentary then I would suggest looking back in the archives and doing so. Also there is suggestions around that the current gold price dampeners (ie the houses selling paper gold to quell the price) have lost the edge and are restricted in selling paper gold without covering their asses.
So we could well see these markets moving up just upon the internal dynamics of short's covering by going long. If this is the case then nothing is going to stop this bull excepting exhaustion at extreme levels.

Of course the above is highly speculative and we'll need to see these actions come into play. But then on reflection we've already seen these forces come into play since gold pierced $300. Since passing through $300 we've seen quite a few attempts to stop the rally and through them all gold has rallied strongly onwards. Indeed gold's heartbeat is very strong & I would believe that a lot of physical is going off market during this phase.

I've also seen Thomas Calandra comment on a thought I've long held and that is that though the physical price of gold climbs that the price of the stocks & therefore indices will not climb but retrace. I've been expecting this to happen moreso as we get closer to $400 but he seems to think that we may see it sooner.

Personally I am very bullish not on today's price but on the fact that the rally has begun and that though we may get retracements the eventual price will be many levels higher than today.

So yes we may sell off from these levels though I would presume the sell off nothing more than a retracement before we move higher.

Sorry to be inconclusive but I feel that's where we're poised with these markets.
Likewise with the global equities markets poised to fall.

With the current global tensions, terrorism & war, let alone financial scandals, anything could easily trigger a fast rally and then we're past the point where the price can be contained.

So far the rally has exhibited certain features that point to it being built on very strong grounds. There's been no quick rallies only to fail yet again - the price movements have all been nicely contained - nice small movements moving up notches and the retracing partially - so all in all this rally doesn't look like tiring yet.

I am sure that the major houses & Gov't's would love to see the price cool off as the world is starting to stand up & take notice.
Even Barrick has agreed to cool of it's hedging.

Over & above all the movements of this rally exists that evidence that the CBs & BBs have leased out far more than they should have and that the miners presold (hedged) far more than they should have. There is a huge vacuum of physical gold into which the paper game has multiplied ownership manyfold. When the POG gets to a certain level and these paper positions start to burn I don't know what will contain the price.

And I would presume that that price is only a short distance away.

My vote would go to a continual rally step by step as we've been traveling so far.
Then at some price in front of us I would expect volatility to enter the markets and the ROC to begin to become parabolic.

Just remember that the above comments are lunatic ramblings from a self confessed goldbug & to do your own due diligence.



JPS -- Sharefin, 08:49:23 05/12/02 Sun

Do you have a link to a site quoting this?
Where are they trading the DX on Sunday?

Thanks Nick



EURO/DOLLAR +2.35% -- JPS, 07:21:18 05/12/02 Sun

The dollar's tanking big style. Now 0.9351 to the Euro. Going to be fireworks when the markets open. Gold's trigger to $330 area?



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:35:02 05/12/02 Sun

Of note is the fact that we've now had five months in a row of increasing highs in the gold price.
Currently we're in place for a six month if all goes well.

The last time this happened was in 1993 then in 1979 then in 1974 & 1972

Below are three charts of monthly gold plots spanning the 1990's the 1980's & the 1970's so you can check for yourself how often this happens.







Lenny Kaplan -- Sharefin, 03:09:13 05/11/02 Sat

GENERAL COMMENTS:

This commentary has been stating for almost a year that it is not the exogenous market influences that truly make this gold market a bull, but it is the actions of the producers that will propel gold prices higher. Barrick Gold, which has heretofore been the most aggressive hedger and forward seller of gold, announced today that it is cutting back on its former programs and will repurchase about 3 million ounces of gold over the next year and will simplify its already obtuse and opaque hedge book so investors can better understand its financial machinations. Now please understand that 3 million ounces over this year is not much when one considers that at the end of the first quarter of this year, it had 18 million ounces pledged for sale, in one way or another. When the arch-enemy of those who believe that gold producers should remain unhedged begins to admit that the future of gold prices looks promising, that indeed is a victory for the gold bulls. While many gold bulls consider the ECB to be opposed to their cause, there was a most bullish comment on gold by Christian Noyer, Vice President of ECB, to quote

"What governments receive from the national Central Banks are interest payments, NOT the assets. It is widely accepted among Central Bankers that gold is an important reserve asset and sales can only be undertaken in a form which would not disrupt the markets."

Such a statement goes a long way to alleviate concerns that the European Central Bank will sell their gold reserves in a profligate manner.

There has been much talk among traders in the market about J.P. Morgan this past few days. It would appear that Mr. Dinsa Mehta, formerly their Chief Precious Metals and Commodity Analyst, has "retired". As this gentleman was responsible for approving many of the obviously self-enriching and obviously obfuscated trades done with Enron by an affiliate of J.P. Morgan, such a "retirement" (giggle....) is not unexpected. If there is one universal prerogative of large corporations, it is that when something bad happens, SOMEONE MUST DIE. And Mr. Dinsa appears to be the victim.

There are also rumors that this same firm was a MAJOR borrower of silver in the shorter-term periods over the last few days. Perhaps they are just cleaning up some problems. But don't expect anything really significant.



Gold -- Sharefin, 03:07:35 05/11/02 Sat

Chris Thompson: Chairman & CEO, Gold Fields Interview

MONEYWEB: Chris, what about rumours that Barrick, the Canadian group, and AngloGold are staking you out?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Yes, I was asked that about ten minutes ago by somebody else. If they are, somebody out there knows something that we don't know.

MONEYWEB: No accumulation of stock and no expression of interest?

CHRIS THOMPSON: Not that I'm aware of.

MONEYWEB: And the gold price itself? You say it is topical in the US at the moment. There certainly is a lot of evidence that George W Bush is going to be moving on the Axis of Evil some time in the future. Is this part of the reason why the Americans are getting excited about gold again?

CHRIS THOMPSON: I think it's a basket of things that have contributed, and one of them is the Middle East tensions, yes, let alone the overall Axis of Evil, if you will. To say that's the sole reason - no, I don't think so. I think there's a lot of concern about whether the US economy is going to recover or whether we're going to have a double dip. There is a sense, I think, that the dollar has probably seen its best and it's going to weaken continuously. The Japanese banking problem remains, hedging, reversal of hedging is contributing, people are becoming much more aware that the supply of gold from the mines is likely to decline in future. All of those combined are probably the factors that are contributing to strength at the moment.

MONEYWEB: And the trend still firmly in place for gold to go higher?

CHRIS THOMPSON: The trend still looks good, it still looks good. I always stop short of saying it's definitely going to happen, but if the reasons I've described are the correct reasons - and you must decide for yourself whether they're going to continue, but if they do, the chances are they may go higher.



From Le Metropole -- Sharefin, 02:45:16 05/11/02 Sat

What might the Enron experiences tell us about Gold Derivatives?
By James E. Sinclair

Is it possible that the end of the bear market in gold, which we have certainly feel has occurred, is the beginning of the demise of the financial integrity of the gold derivative and therefore many of the gold banks. We shall see but there is a great deal of reason to suspect the financial integrity of the instruments.

Thanks to Reginald Howe all the information you require to keep yourself abreast of the size of the total commercial bank position in the gold derivative market is available on his web page www.goldensextantcom. Mr. Howe has even provided the hyperlink required for direct access to the facts and figures.

Harry Schultz (www.hsletter.com) has outlined for you the exact position of all the producing gold companies short spread position. This will be continually monitored for you in the Harry Schultz Letter.

All these figures are as of the latest reporting period with new figures due shortly.

Total Gold Producers Short Gold Spreads as reported in HSL are 97,446,190 ounces which is today worth USD$30,344,743,566.00. This represents two years full production of all producing gold mines. However this figures represents only 13% of the value of the total Gold Derivative market according to the Bank for International Settlements Yes, the total size of the G 10 commercial banks derivative positions is valued by the BIS at a lower gold price than today at $218,000,000,000.00. Harry Schultz & I will pains takingly examine the figures in order to offset longs against shorts to render a better figure for you.

The commercial bank net short spread position will, in our opinion, represent a net position of 100,000,000 to 200,000,000 ounces in short gold spreads. Regardless, it should bring the total short spread position to net short of an at least a total of 3 to 4 years production. We hope that will be the final number but stay tuned as we diligently work to provide you with the real gold picture.

The notional value is the value that a derivative such as a call is determined if you multiplied the price at which call is written times the ounces for which the call was written. For instance if you had a call on 100 ounces of gold at $325, the notional value is $32,500 but the call may have cost you only $2000. Our calculations indicate to us that at $354 every derivative on gold will reach its notional value. Therefore you can say that notional value will become real value because the call is exercisable by the bull interest in this case. For those that argue this $354 price, please remember that if gold for delivery one year out rises the price of gold every year out also rises but to a larger degree.

Therefore we conclude that;

1/Notional value becomes real value at the average price of gold over the past five years plus the average catango (a condition that exists when cash gold sells at a lower price than forward gold is called a catango) when it becomes the market price. In the most practical sense, knowing the inside of this market, the price of gold at which notional value of all present gold derivative becomes real value at $354 gold.

2/All derivative dealers maintain software programs for risk control. When I ran an arb, I & my partners determined what risk percentage of nominal value we would permit as we pursued our arb business on any given item such as gold, silver etc. I was never interested as the proprietor in each trader's position. What I watched was the entire house position. Risk control programs vary from gold bank to gold bank but the computer mathematical logic is the same. All gold hedges are short gold spreads (a spread is a long position against a short position). For the gold producers it takes many different forms but is basically the same logic. A producer could simply sell deffered delivery gold against gold in the ground as an example.

By our calculation as gold closed over $305 the risk control programs began to call for increased longs to offset the short in the short gold spread. This explains the strong action in gold over the last two weeks. It also explains the absence of the gold cartel right now. If they were in to sell now they would be buying from themselves on their risk control programs. This maintains the risk exposure fixed at a predetermined level for the arbitrage dealer gold bank. At $354 gold, the risk control programs will call for one ounce long for every ounce of gold short. The gold producer hedges at 97,466,190 ounces industry wide.

These producer positions have been laid off (a term meaning trade to) to the subsidiaries commercial/investment banks called gold banks that in turn lay off the long side by selling into the various paper gold items from Comex and London deferred to derivative of third and fourth forms. The skinny is someone will be buying 97,466,190 ounces or going quite broke at gold $354.

As a professional trader in the gold market for a total of 43 years experience, allow me to assure you the gold market is in the hands of the bull today. It appears to me as if Hung Fat and Dr. No have the producers and what I call "Wise Guys" by the neck. Anyone who thinks there is a public in this market knows nothing about gold. Gold never leads the commodity market, it follows it.

I would like to call your attention to what I see as the real risk to the gold producers:

The present vehicles used by the gold producers has produced a total short spread position of 97,466,190 ounces worth today USD$30,344,743,566.00 are:

1/ Unregulated.
2/ Non transparent.
3/ Traded in private treaty.
4/ Without reporting of trading statistics.
5/ Without the ability for the gold producer to lift legs of the spreads independently
6/ With a requirement that changes or closures must be made only at the gold bank that granted the short gold spread.
7/ Without a right of offset between the gold producer and the gold bank.
8/Priced by computer modeling, not market forces of supply and demand.
9/Without a clearing house facility to give a reasonable guarantee to financial performance.
10/Granted generally by subsidiaries of the well known investment or commercial bank.
11/ These subsidiaries generally do not publish balance sheets. It appears that for SEC purposes all which is required for a subsidiary is reporting if or not they comply with capital requirements in area of their domiciled if there is any.
12/Those that do publish financial figures usually do not give figures for total derivatives to which they are obligated to.
13/These subsidiaries have no automatic guarantee for their trade debts in case of bankruptcy
14/These subsidiaries are generally not domiciled in the USA.

To the short spread positions of the gold producers of 97,466,190 ounces, you must add at least a short gold spread position of that same amount or larger for what I call the "Wise Guys." The "Wise Guys" are traders in the market without a commodity hedging reason to be there.

They are the gold lease boys that use the funds for other than mining purposes and the carry trade gang who seek to profit as gold bears while capturing the difference between cash gold and forward gold in unlisted markets.

In my opinion, at $354 gold the foundational transactions of the gold derivative market could be tested. The melt down could then in full swing. We shall see as the gold market is no longer in the hands of the bears. The bears have lost their death grip on gold, if or not they know it. Be prepared for the arrival of central bank selling. The Cartel is neutralized by the risk control programs as buyers. I suspect that the next arrival of large cartel selling in gold will be hours before some central bank announces a large sale of gold. Expect the market to pull back but not as much as expected. Then Hung Fat and Dr. No will oversubscribe the auction and away we go on the upside for the price of gold. This will mirror the events of 1978, 1979 & 1980.

Both the junior exploration and development company plus all producers from modest to major who have hedge position will be placed in dire to uncomfortable conditions. Junior exploration and development companies with percentage deals with the majors are in as much and more danger than a major gold producer with a war chest of money.

Every junior exploration and development company subordinates their percentage of the property to the means of creating the loan which included full recourse to the derivative position taken by the major to produce the non recourse development loan. I believe when the cash call comes because of the derivative melt down the juniors will have to hand over their percentage property position to the major. This is why Harry advised and I have taken TNX towards the royalty route which has no exposure to the derivative of the major.

The non gold related people in gold derivatives, "Wise Guys", will be pulled down in whatever entities they are dealing if the melt down occurs. Balanced positions or even bull positions are no protection for the gold producer dealing in the gold derivative market today. If a melt down occurs gold producers who have no rights of offset in their contracts with the gold bank will be in serious difficulties regardless of their position. They will in the ensuing bankruptcy lose their credits and have to pay up on debits.

The gold producers should certainly ask themselves why they remain in gold derivative positions even if those positions are balanced when major traditional dealers exit the marketplace. If Credit Suisse First Boston and Rothschild's as example are expunging derivative contracts from their book, why does a gold producer take comfort holding such items? We are in a gold bull market and the gold equity or convertible bond financing window is open. The gold producers should either replace the non recourse gold loan with traditional financing or take recourse to the company on all development loans in order to expunge all derivative contracts now.



Silver -- Sharefin, 02:42:11 05/11/02 Sat

Film Still King Claims Kodak

Digital camera technology is not likely to replace chemical-based film for some time, according to Eastman Kodak.



Gold -- Sharefin, 01:40:36 05/11/02 Sat

Gold Fields Chairman Interview - Chris Thompson

SCHAFFLER: Tell us a little bit about the big macro picture. Gold is a bit more in vogue than we`ve seen as of late. Is it primarily because investors remain nervous?

THOMPSON: Rhonda, gold`s emerging from a kind of long cold winter. Generally speaking, the higher the degree of prosperity and confidence in the world the lower the gold price. Equally in reverse, once uncertainty starts to spread and/or the U.S. dollar goes down you tend to see a resurgence in gold. We`ve now got probably a year-and-a-half into some kind of gold resurgence.

PAYNE: Outside of the investment aspects, what are some of the other drivers of gold prices?

THOMPSON: Right now I believe the factors that are driving gold are one, uncertainty about the U.S. economy`s recovery, weaker dollar, the reversal of hedging among producers.

On the way down in gold price the producers all hedged quite heavily, that added additional supply to the market. Now that they`re reversing hedges, this is actually creating additional demand. The Japanese banking problems with the removal of guarantees on deposits is causing Japanese high net worth`s to turn to gold as an alternative.

And then perhaps more subtle but more significant is the fact that the supply of gold, the supply from the mines, while it`s not dropping at the moment, it`s quite clear that a few years out, three or four years out, we`re going to see quite a significant drop in supply. Because the low prices we`ve experienced over the last few years have caused a shut down in exploration.



Gold -- Sharefin, 01:32:37 05/11/02 Sat

The Future of Gold Roundtable - pdf file

The gold market is in perhaps the worst shape it has been in since the gold-dollar international monetary link was broken
in 1971. Gold producers, refiners, bullion banks and dealers, jewelers, and exchanges all are facing major difficulties. A
number of major bullion banks have closed or cut-back their trading operations. The liquidity in the gold market has
dropped sharply. Central bank gold policy has become more transparent and predictable for now, but is up for redefinition
once more in the next few years.
In this environment, the International Precious Metals Institute is convening a roundtable conference to bring all major
stakeholders in the gold market together to discuss and debate the future of the gold market. The objective is to hold an
impartial discussion on the various issues facing the gold market, the likely direction of future market trends, and other
issues of importance to the gold market.
There will be four sessions focusing on individual market sectors, as outlined on the next page of this paper. Each session
will have a moderator and three brief presentations to outline the salient issues facing that market sector, followed by 45
minutes of open discussion in a formally organized fashion.



Gold -- Sharefin, 01:17:12 05/11/02 Sat

Gold rush could signal trouble

Investors fed up with the gloomy stock market may be missing a bull market that's glittering right in front of their faces: gold.

But unless you're invested in gold, this rally may actually be a reason for concern. It could be a clue the stock market is in more trouble than many realize, say analysts who study the metal.

When investors start buying gold, they're bracing for trouble. They're essentially turning away from the stock market and saying they'd rather protect the assets they have than risk losing more.



NBR -- Sharefin, 23:57:03 05/10/02 Fri

Frank Cochrane, President of Investment Timing Consultants

COCHRANE: Yes. I really don't like any stocks other than, say, gold stocks at this point time. However, obviously defense stocks will do well, I think, in this environment over the course of the next year. So certainly I would hold those.

YASTINE: All right, so let's talk about what would you be buying here if anything? you'd be buying gold stocks. They've already had a good run. Newmont Mining (NEM) is up something like about 50 percent just in the past four or four-and-a-half months.

COCHRANE: Yes. But gold was in a bear market basically for the last 18 years. I think we're starting to see the beginning of something huge. And I'm not talking about buying gold for the next six months, I'm talking about buying gold for a long - low gold stocks for a long period of time. So...



Gold -- Sharefin, 23:43:21 05/10/02 Fri

Going long on war

The United States is preparing for another war in the Middle East, with Washington insiders convinced that President George W Bush will launch a full-scale attack on Iraq in the near future.

Implications of the next dramatic chapter in world history are becoming apparent in the behaviour of investment markets. Most obvious has been sustained strength in the gold price which has risen steadily from $271 an ounce on the day before the September 11 atrocity to a solid $310 and trending towards further gains. Written off as a relic just a year ago, gold is once more proving to be the ultimate hedge against political uncertainty.



gold -- Sharefin, 23:40:59 05/10/02 Fri

Gold hedging mastermind contemplates retirement

The man credited more than anyone else with spawning the gold hedging boom of the 1990s genially shrugs off talk that he has been fired.

The news surfaced in a report circulated by Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee chairman Bill Murphy. The affable and urbane Mehta said of the rumours: "An endearing feature of the gold market is that it has had a hard-core of conspiracy theorists providing sideshow entertainment for twenty years. Their consistency in occupying the lunatic fringe is admirable."

"The bullion market as I know it is undergoing a process of change. I sense the need for a younger generation to come in and remake the business," Mehta said.

He refuted claims that he structured gold transactions on behalf of Enron after his name was linked to an energy trading operation the failed company used to defer tax benefits. Addressing rumours that JP Morgan's gold derivatives business is to be closed down, Mehta said: "JP has not considered exiting its historical presence in the Gold markets. From time to time it will, as it has done over the past several decades in this and in its other businesses, remake that presence to better suit the market's own evolution. This is expected to result in little change in the way the business is run; commitment to market-making and client service remain intact."



Gold -- Sharefin, 23:29:15 05/10/02 Fri

World Gold Council chief resigns



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:17:48 05/10/02 Fri

What do I believe in? Less paper, more gold

Walloped dollar to accelerate gold
Toronto veteran explains the de-hedging scenario

A month from now, a year from now, five years from now - you choose the timing, because I won't - the price of an ounce of gold will be three to six times what it is now. By then, the world's money flows will have stopped way short of the fiber-optic fork in the ocean that leads to New York.

I submit that with that swollen account deficit and the dollar's decline will come (has come and is coming) an explosive move up in the price of gold. The $310 metal, up almost 20 percent this year, one day will sell for a price that reflects a cascading American balance sheet. With U.S. households living off their spree of credit-card and mortgage debt, the perpetual stock and housing market bubbles in this country (and in most of the world's major cities) will hiss, hiss, hiss.

Whether that big number comes from a sinking dollar, or the $63 billion of gold derivatives on the books of U.S. banks and trust companies (as of Dec. 31), or creeping inflation, shocking deflation or, Lord help us, bigger and more deadly exploding mailboxes, remains to be seen.

Ian McAvity, the longtime newsletter editor whose Deliberation on World Markets provides in my view some of the hardest-to-find historical charts, money flows and hard data on international gold mining equities and gold and silver bullion, says the gold-price trigger may be days or weeks away.



Fiat -- Sharefin, 20:09:55 05/10/02 Fri

2004: The Next Great US Depression



1st, 2nd, 3rd Angle of Assents... -- SilverDragon, 16:17:08 05/10/02 Fri


1ST Angle of Assent...
2nd Angle of Assent...
3rd Angle of Assent...

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=usagx&sid=0&o_symb=usagx&freq=1&time=19

Suspect…
We have completed the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd angle of accents of this run to the 1st USAGX Bull Top.

Suspect…
4th Angle of Assent will be at an even steeper up angle.
5th Angle of Assent will be the ‘Blow Off' to the ‘1st Bull Top'.

Suspect…
1st Bull Top may be reached as soon as June 7th.
1st Bull Top may be no latter than June 28th.

SilverDragon



What is this guy Kaplan on about? -- Sharefin, 23:53:38 05/09/02 Thu

Gold Mining Outlook


Wednesday, May 1, 2002: The insider stock transaction activity indicator for gold has dropped from MODESTLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as the frequency of insider sales and registrations for intended sales by gold mining executives has risen sharply over the past few weeks. Corporate announcements about new secondary share offerings have also suddenly risen over the past several trading days.

Monday, April 8, 2002: The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has improved from MODERATELY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as the high concentration of call buying on individual gold mining shares has somewhat abated in recent days.

Monday, March 25, 2002: The outlook for gold mining shares has deteriorated to STRONGLY BEARISH, as an enormous concentration of call trading and sparse put trading in individual large-cap gold shares is indicating that a peak in gold share prices is imminent.

Monday, March 25, 2002: The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has fallen from MODESTLY BEARISH to MODERATELY BEARISH, also reflecting the speculative fever in gold mining shares in recent trading days.

Monday, March 25, 2002: The gauges of future inflation indicator has improved from SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as both measures of future inflation's growth rates have turned noticeably less negative.

Monday, February 11, 2002: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has worsened from SLIGHTLY BEARISH to SIGNIFICANTLY BEARISH, as gold's price rise to above $300 spot has encouraged recent purchasers who are completely uncommitted to the yellow metal unless it is rising, and who will therefore bail out given even modest unfriendly price behavior. Bearish traders' commitments and overbought technicals support this view. Also, the first true rally stage of any real bull market needs its corresponding retracement.

Monday, February 11, 2002: The traders' commitments indicator for gold has deteriorated from MODESTLY BEARISH to STRONGLY BEARISH, as commercials are currently net short about sixty thousand contracts.

Monday, February 11, 2002: The price/volume statistics indicator for gold has deteriorated from SLIGHTLY BULLISH to MODESTLY BEARISH, as unusually heavy gold share call buying is probably marking a short-term peak for the yellow metal and its shares.

Monday, December 24, 2001: The overall outlook for gold, gold collectibles, and gold mining shares has risen from MODERATELY BEARISH to SLIGHTLY BEARISH, as the pivot price for gold has risen from $271 to $276 spot, while gold commercials remain highly responsive to modest moves in either direction, and currency commercials are generally short those currencies which correlate significantly with the gold price.

-------
Reality is a far cry from imagination.....
Truly a gold bear dressed as bull.......



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:57:06 05/09/02 Thu

Why Gold Will Rally

BOTTOM LINE WHY GOLD WILL RALLY

April 12, 2002... OK, let's talk about the longer term, say within 2 years. Here we have a problem, and it's a very difficult problem. The problem is that over a 25-year period the average P/E ratio for the broad S&P is 17.05. The average P/E ratio for a 50-year period is 16.17. When the S&P has advances above a P/E ratio of 20.2, the market has lost 2.5% in the following three months; it has lost 7.3% in the following six months. And it has lost 1.4% over the following 12 months. That's according to Ned Davis Research.

And here's the problem. The P/E for the S&P is now 45 based on the current price of the S&P and reported earnings. If corporate profits further erode, PE's may increase more. They have never been this high before.

So all we can really say now is -- because stocks are currently selling at such rarefied prices, the chances are that, on average, total return over the next five years are not going to be attractive at all.

Probabilities suggest that either stocks will drag along for years with average total returns remaining in the doldrums. Or, over the next few years a bear market will knock stocks down to the point where they represent great values. Therefore starting from much lower levels, stocks could be in for profitable total returns again.

Investors have observed Japan's bubble and stock market dragging along for over 10 years. If Greenspan's synopsis for growth does not occur by October 2002, where do you think investors will turn? Remember there is over $2 trillion in money market funds. If ¼ of 1% is spent on gold stocks, we'll see an amazing rise in prices because the entire market cap of all gold stocks is estimated at $85 billion, or ¼ the size of just Microsoft.

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable supply/demand imbalance
·1 Mine production has flattened out at 2,600 tonnes annually
·2 Scrap supply is flat at about 600 tonnes annually
·3 Current annual demand is about 4,900 tonnes (85% jewelry) and continues to grow
·4 Growing deficit of about 2,500 tonnes annually
-5 Remaining gold - loans/swaps in the central banks have to be 14,000 to 15,000 tonnes. The Central banks have about 32,000 tonnes. That leaves about 17,000 tonnes left

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable short position
·1 Central banks have loaned gold to earn income on reserves
·2 Bullion banks have borrowed gold for their own account (carry trade) and for producers (hedging) and used derivatives to limit their risk and generate additional income
·3 Loaned gold has been sold into physical market and now is jewelry
·4 Size of short position ( estimated over 3 times available supply) cannot be covered in the derivative market all at once; rapid covering would lead to much higher gold prices

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable low inflation
·1 The gold price rises with inflation
·2 CPI inflation has been very low due to strong dollar (Asian collapse and investment flows)
·3 Aggressive interest rate cuts and monetary expansion to avoid recession/deflation by re-inflating. "The race to the bottom"
·4 YTD Fed liquidity injection = $1 trillion
·5 CPI inflation inevitable: the Fed must inflate away excess debt or see debt defaults
·6 War is historically inflationary


Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable U.S. dollar
·1 Historically high U.S. current account deficit (> $400 billion annually)
·2 Deficit recycled primarily into U.S. debt securities
·3 U.S. now world's largest debtor nation
·4 Foreign demand for U.S. securities declining and U.S. Dollar beginning major reversal
·5 Gold is only down in U.S. Dollars
·6 Since 1995 the U.S. Dollar is up 30% vs gold, 33% vs French Franc and 50% vs German Mark
·7 The Canadian dollar, French Franc and German Mark all buy as much gold today as in 1991

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable pricing for financial assets
·1 Investment demand drives the gold price
·2 Gold is counter-cyclical, investors buy it when financial assets are out of favor
·3 Ownership and pricing (P/Es) of financial assets are at historic highs
·4 If financial assets continue to decline, investors will shift to gold The ratio of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold reached an all time high in 2000 and is now declining rapidly, reflecting a major turn in the relative values of financial assets and gold.

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Unsustainable gold price manipulation
EVIDENCE OF GOLD PRICE MANIPULATION

·1 Aggressive gold lending has filled supply/demand gap
·2 NY Fed gold has been mobilized when gold price is rising
·3 Timing of ESF gains/losses corresponds to gold price movements
·4 Audited reports of U.S. gold reserves show unexplained variances
·5 Fed minutes confirm officially denied gold swaps
·6 IMF rules on swaps revised but denied
·7 U.S. gold reserve recently re-designated as “deep storage gold”
·8 Statistical analysis of unusual gold price movements since 1994 indicates high probability of price suppression
·9 NY gold price movements versus London defy odds
10 Timing of huge increases in bullion bank gold derivatives consistent with gold price declines
11 Rapid decline of U.S. Treasury holdings of SDR certificates not explained

Will Gold Ever Rally?
Yes Because:
Gold is money again
·1 September 11 attack: The world is not the same
·2 Only gold is final settlement
·3 Return on gold is catching up to the dollar deposits
·4 Negative real U.S. interest rates (now 0.5%) undercut dollar, always gold bullish

Gold Price Now Poised to Move Higher?

·1 Falling interest rates are removing the incentive to short (hedge) gold, that could lead to a major short covering squeeze in the derivatives market
·2 Monetary inflation is on the rise
·3 Gold supply/demand imbalance growing
·4 Production is set to decline abruptly at the current gold price
·5 Veneroso estimates true gold equilibrium price of US$600



Today's Most Active Stocks in the Gold Industry -- SilverDragon, 18:43:38 05/09/02 Thu


http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_active?ind=134



giovanni dioro @ “…don't take any wooden nickels…” -- SilverDragon, 10:22:46 05/09/02 Thu



I have been investing in real estate for more than thirty years.
I have been investing in ‘Precious Metals' and ‘Gold Stocks' for more than twenty years.

Our investment portfolio is now about 50% of each.

I have a few Buffalo Nickels.
I would be very interested in a ‘Wooden Nickel'.

http://www.wooden-nickel.net/



Fly my precious - @ silverdragon -- giovanni dioro, 08:30:01 05/09/02 Thu

Silverdragon, I've been in the pm markets for about 4 years now. I see value, I can wait. I have about 20% of my portfolio in the precious of silver and gold. About 55% short term deposits in foreign currencies (NOK, Eur, ISK, GBP), and 25% in a US blue chip (BRK).

I feel comfortable with the amount of precious that I have, and if it goes up double tomorrow I wouldn't regret too much not having bought more. I'd just be excited like all the rest of us gold and silver bugs.

I rely on my portfolio for income to a large degree, and so I'm not looking to buy or sell at the moment. I am not sure if gold and silver had made their multi-year lows or not.

Another key point here is that while my gold cost is around $305, and it looks like a no profit/loss over the 4 years priced in USD, I live in Europe and I have seen gold go up by around 35% priced in local currency.

Moreover, this recent rally has been mostly due to the drop in the USD. Gold priced in AUS, EUR, CHF, etc. has not been as impressive.

Therefore, gold has rallied strongly in US Dollar terms, but less so in other currencies with the obvious exception of Argentina.

While talking about argentina, remember that argentina's currency, the new peso, that was introduced about 10 years ago was initially "backed by gold". The argentines sold off the gold a few years ago saying they didn't want to hold an asset that didn't pay interest, but I suppose really they were under pressure to keep their dollar peg because that's why they "backed" their "new" currency with gold - so that it would be accepted.

Well I say don't take any wooden nickels and as to any paper money with hollow promises of so-called gold-backing, take them with a pinch of salt. Keep an eye for the first signs of trouble, and keep your nose alert for any papers burning.



Foolish comments from The Motley Fool -- Sharefin, 07:15:12 05/09/02 Thu

Is Gold Still A Buy?



Gold -- Sharefin, 05:06:08 05/09/02 Thu

Higher gold price likely, chairman says

Barrick Gold Corp. announced today the company is simplifying its hedging program, and Barrick Chairman Peter Munk said he is optimistic about the rising gold price.



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:55:17 05/09/02 Thu

An Open Letter on Gold Hedging



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:51:49 05/09/02 Thu

The Trouble With Gold - pdf file



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:45:15 05/09/02 Thu

Australian gold hedges fall 200,000/oz

Australian miners reduced their gold hedging positions in the March quarter by 200,000 ounces to 24.3 million ounces, excluding the positions held by the former Normandy Mining, investment bank JP Morgan said on Thursday.



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:42:07 05/09/02 Thu

Barrick, Anglo seen as suitors for Gold Fields

Traders in South Africa are gambling that Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp. and Johannesburg-based AngloGold Ltd. will take a run at Gold Fields Ltd., the world's fourth-largest gold producer.

Investors pushed stock in Gold Fields to a record close after miningweb.com published a report on the possible takeover bid.

The report, which cited no sources, said Barrick, the world's second largest gold producer, and AngloGold, third largest, are plotting a joint takeover bid for Gold Fields.

Vincent Borg, spokesman for Barrick, dismissed the report as merely a "rumour de jour."



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:36:09 05/09/02 Thu

Kebble hits bad ground

The Kebble mining dynasty has been rocked by a scandal involving a dubious share deal to buy a defunct gold mine in Indonesia.



Gold -- Sharefin, 04:34:03 05/09/02 Thu

Barrick Gold, The King Of The Hedgers, Changes Tactics

One of the bellwethers for this change was John Doody, editor of the Gold Stock Analyst newsletter. He took a close look at the figures revealed in its latest quarterly report by Barrick Gold, the king of the hedgers and apparently concluded that the mark-to market value of its hedge book had dropped from a positive US$380 million at the end of last June when gold was in the doldrums, to a loss of US$121 million at the end of March. This amounted to a negative swing of US$501 million which is way more than the total net profits earned in these three quarters. In fact, as Mr Doody points out, the true position is that the company incurred a net loss of US$307 million.

Barrick, which the largest gold producer in the world, has always made a great play of its success at hedging. Minews does not claim to be an expert on the subject, but the Barrick hedging programme uses a wide range of written call option contracts, forward sales and other derivative tactics to enhance the price the company gets for its gold. Douglas Pollitt, of Pollitt & Co in Toronto has attempted to untangle this hedging and has come to the conclusion that the sensitivity of the derivative portfolio now stands at about US$21 million an ounce.

On this basis every US$1/oz advance in the price of gold hits Barrick's negative mark-to-market position by a negative US$21 million. If this is so, and Mr Pollitt has clearly done his homework, by the time gold hits US$350 million Barrick's mark- to- market would be over US$1 billion in the red. Worse, Mr Pollitt has calculated that the company is short of around 23 million ounces of gold which would be physically impossible to cover at prices that made any sense if push came to shove.



Gold -- Sharefin, 20:38:38 05/08/02 Wed

Revisionist View of the Great Depression

Following John Maynard Keynes, mainstream economists hold that the Great Depression was caused by ‘contractionist tendencies' of the gold standard. In this revisionist view we shall argue that just the opposite is true: it was the destruction of the gold standard by the government that caused the unprecedented collapse in the world economy. The chain of causation was as follows. Interest rates were cut adrift from their gold moorings by the politicians. Bond speculators were unleashed. Chief among them were the banks. For them the new dispensation was a matter of life or death. The banks were insolvent. They were gambling that they might be able to plug the enormous holes in the balance sheet with capital gains in the bond portfolio, that is, by oushing interest rates down. But there was another factor that made the case for bond speculation compelling. The risks involved, well past the range of prudence of bank portfolio management, were removed by the ban on gold hoarding. This ban has created a captive market for bonds. Previously those individuals who wanted to manage their liquid wealth most conservatively would park it in gold. As this was no longer legally possible, they now had to park it in government bonds. Thus the banks' risk that interest rates would turn against their speculative long position in bonds were removed. This explains the extraordinary virulence of the speculative orgy driving bond prices up or, what is the same to say, driving interest rates down.



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:34:56 05/08/02 Wed

Global Central Bank Gold Lending Dips By 164 Tonne In 2001: GFMS

For the first time since 1993, the quantity of gold lending by the world's central banks recorded a decline of 164 tonne during 2001, according to the annual bullion market report released by London-based Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS).

GFMS, a precious metals consultancy, in its updated analysis on official sector lending, said “At the end of 2001 outstanding swaps and deposits of the world's central banks and official monetary institutions had fallen by 164 tonne to 4,651 tonne compared to a revised end-2000 of 4,815 tonne.”

The majority of the decline in lending last year came from countries not inside the European Central Bank Gold Agreement and a large part of 164 tonne came from a handful of central banks outside Europe that were also important sellers of reserves in 2001, the report said.

In addition, one other lender of bullion to the market took back a sizeable quantity of gold that it had been providing to the market, it said adding even a small part of the reduction in lending in 2001 was in response to the low leasing rate environment. The report states that even though all central bank lenders who were interviewed expressed dissatisfaction with the low rates on offer, nearly all of them sought out other means of dealing with the problem than outright withdrawal from the market.

For the majority, this involved extending the term of their lending in order to pick up the higher rates available further out along the positively sloped yield curve, it said. GFMS said the reduction in central bank lending would've led to gold leasing tightening last year if it had not been for an almost equal decline in the demand for such gold liquidity.

The lower borrowing requirement was in turn mostly the result of the fall in mining company hedging that took place in 2001, it said adding “miners' forward and derivative hedge contracts still account for over 60 per cent of all gold borrowing.”



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:56:01 05/08/02 Wed

Investors start to lash out

Individuals are increasingly concerned about their mounting stock market losses, the use of derivatives and the possibility of a weaker dollar.

In feedback to CBS MarketWatch, investors are holding out little hope for a lasting technology stock rebound. Their reluctance to subscribe to the bull-market story is an about-face from just five months ago, when the year started with high hopes for hefty market returns after almost three years of losses.

Anger meter off the charts

Much of the most recent CBS MarketWatch feedback from individual investors is laced with fury:

Ven Jayram is upset about "the absolute corruption and deception that goes on in the boardrooms of corporate America, Nvidia, Peregrine Systems, Tyco, WorldCom, Enron, etc., are only a few examples. The CEOs/CFOs that quit immediately upon an investigation should be treated the same way we treat terrorists -- criminally investigated and their assets seized and distributed back to shareholders."

Ken Kaiser points to a string of rumblings on pro-gold Web site LeMetropoleCafe under the heading, "JP Morgan Chase (JPM) Gold Department In Serious Trouble." Kaiser says, "I personally believe the gold market is rigged by these bullion banks and it really pisses me off." JP Morgan's gold derivatives as of December 2001, for all maturities, amounted to $41 billion vs. $37.1 billion for the previous quarter, according to data kept by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. At year-end, JP Morgan's gold derivatives, which are designed for gold miners and others who lend, borrow or hedge their gold supplies, were about 65 percent of the notional amount of gold derivatives sold by all U.S. commercial banks and trust companies.

Bob Carawan is impatient. He wants to see more investment choices, like an exchange-traded gold pool with daily accounting, much like the exchange-traded QQQs and other trust-backed securities work. If flight from the dollar occurs, it (a gold-backed security) will happen anyways, exchange traded fund or not. It's my retirement savings and I want more physical options."

Preston Walters, noting the reluctance of Americans to own gold, says, "It is not un-American to invest in gold. But there are those that would make you feel that it is un-American to knock tech stocks. I guess they don't believe in diversity."

Tim Kurtz says, "Wall Street's analysts are a bunch of spineless, two-faced liars and thieves. May the independent (researchers) flourish (and triumph) when our world finally wakes up."



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:24:31 05/08/02 Wed

Ned Schmidt & gold

Gold Power Cycles Toward $1,253

Bulls In Denial Stage

THE VALUE VIEW GOLD REPORT



Silver squeeze -- Sharefin, 18:09:46 05/08/02 Wed

Silver Lease Rates

1 month rates have soared from 0.34% to 1.59% in the last two days.
While 1 year rates have climbed from 1.39% up to 2.15%

No news on why as yet.

Gold lease rates are still abysmally low as no one is stepping up to lease gold.
As the interest in leasing has waned the lease rates have dropped to all time lows.



Gold -- Sharefin, 18:02:11 05/08/02 Wed

Gold's secular bull market

The price of gold in US dollars has risen by almost 20 percent in the past year - should you take profits? The answer is an emphatic No! Take a look at the following chart. It depicts the US dollar exchange rate, the gold price in US dollars and the average gold price in a basket of currencies.

During the two-year period of 1994 and 1995 the gold price was relatively stable, trading in a narrow range around its average price of $385 an ounce. The average gold price is now trading more than 30 percent higher than during that two-year period. If the dollar had to decline to its pre-1996 level and if the average gold price remains at its current level, then it implies a dollar-gold price of over $400 an ounce. A US dollar-gold price of $400 an ounce does not require a stretch of the imagination. Gold was trading at these levels in early 1996.

For a quick confirmation, consider that since January 31, 2002 the dollar has declined 5.5 percent and the gold price has increased by 10.4 percent during the same time. Gold is not only responding as expected, the increase in the gold price suggests that gold is attracting far more capital than anticipated. Since the dollar is no longer perceived as a rock-solid, safe haven for capital, and since there is no clear alternative amongst the fiat currencies of the world, gold is becoming attractive once again as a store of wealth.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:59:26 05/08/02 Wed

Barrick dismisses rumors of Gold Fields deal


Barrick Gold Corp. , which has grown to become the world's second-biggest gold producer through a series of acquisitions over the past 20 years, threw cold water on Wednesday on rumors it was poised to swell further by taking over a South African producer.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:53:59 05/08/02 Wed

Flap over gold derivative "firings"

Gold bug extraordinaire Bill Murphy reported in a circular to readers of the LeMetropole Web site that JP Morgan Chase's derivatives operations are in chaos. The bank flatly denies the claims and Miningweb has verified that at least one of the executives said to have been "fired" is still on staff.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:50:09 05/08/02 Wed

Price rally puts gold hedging out of fashion

"It is indisputable that money has been made in the last 10 years, but the question is whether hedging has depressed the price," says Mr Birch. "Hedging makes you feel negative about the gold price: it is a dangerous mentality to have for a gold executive."

Chris Thompson, GoldFields CEO and the new chairman of the World Gold Council, says gold producers should be in the business of selling and promoting gold and that "hedging is the antithesis of marketing".

This is part of what Bobby Godsell, AngloGold CE, calls the "theological argument" about hedging. He thinks the debate between proponents and detractors is ultimately fruitless: there is evidence to support both arguments, so it boils down to a question of belief.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:44:37 05/08/02 Wed

Gold is lower in what could also be the start of a correction to the $US 290 support area.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:41:32 05/08/02 Wed

Barrick cuts gold hedge position by 3 mln ounces

Barrick To Simplify Premium Gold Sales Program



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:40:13 05/08/02 Wed

Barrick trims hedges again to 'take greater advantage of rising gold prices'

Barrick Gold Corp. is further scaling back its forward selling, announcing Wednesday it is "simplifying" its so-called premium gold sales program.

The company said it will not renew its gold call and variable price sales contracts, a move which is expected to reduce these hedging positions by half, to three million ounces by year-end. "A simple spot deferred program makes more sense in today's environment," stated Jamie Sokalsky, chief financial officer of Canada's largest gold company.

"The overall program will be simpler, smaller and better positioned to take greater advantage of rising gold prices. At the same time, it will continue to generate significant additional revenues and provide secure and predictable cash flows."

These changes are in addition to Barrick's previously announced decision to sell half of its output at the spot price for the first time in 14 years. In recent years, all of its production was delivered against the hedging program at prices far in excess of the spot market bullion price.



Gold -- Sharefin, 17:38:25 05/08/02 Wed

NY gold backtracks as dlr bounces

COMEX gold retreated on Wednesday as a rally in the dollar snuffed out a stab at new highs on news a vocal champion of hedging was joining the ranks of producers scaling back on the forward selling of unmined gold.

"It was the Barrick news that brought (gold) up and the Yasser Arafat news that brought it down -- that he's going to curtail all terrorism in Israel," said Leonard Kaplan



Midas update -- Shadowfax, 10:01:19 05/08/02 Wed

Le Metropole Members,
>
> Two sources in various parts of the world informed me today
> that J.P. Morgan Chase is closing down its gold derivative
> operations. It appears that GATA has run them out of town.
> I will have more on this in Midas tonite
>
>
>



Giovanni Dioro @ “…is a bit disappointing -- SilverDragon, 08:08:54 05/08/02 Wed

Giovanni Dioro @ “…is a bit disappointing that gold can't rocket…”

In 1987 I got in about one month before the rocket fuse was lit.
I got off the ‘Golden Rocket' only to have to pay a higher price to get back on.
It was at the top of the 1987 USAGX $10.00 Rest Stop.
Looks to me like we are now, once more, at that same USAGX $10.00 Rest Stop.
IF, we are… better keep the seatbelt fastened.
Could be… one He!! of a ride!!!
Time will tell.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=USAGX&sid=0&o_symb=USAGX&freq=2&time=20



Goood Morning from Imperial Beach, California!!! -- SilverDragon, 07:52:41 05/08/02 Wed


@ Sharefin "It'll be time for a new boat when glod hits $1000.(:-))))"

Sold the apartments January 30th.
After thirty years…
Don't have to repair, sweep, patch, paint, putty, clean, and write letters to tenants all night anymore!!!

Went to Kansas City, Kansas and picked up the new boat.
Still have not had time to use the new boat.
Retiring, and stopping the ‘investment ship', is taking longer than expected.

Mmmm... getting off the back of that last ‘Gold Bear' did too.

Gold $1,000.00 / XAU 180 has been my target for more than a year.
If this rocket is anything like '87 could happen very quickly.

Have already started looking for the new 'investment boat'.
Will probably just stick with the 'Golden One'.
Trading them has been very good to me.
I will try and not ride anymore of dem dern 'Golden Bears' again.
This last one was a stubborn and ornery critter.
This last one dern near killed me.
Twice in twenty-five years is enough!!!

Hang of tight!!!
Don't let dis ‘Golden Bull' throw you.



What's with this rally? -- Giovanni Dioro, 07:17:23 05/08/02 Wed

I must say it is a bit disappointing that gold can't rocket further higher after having broken through the resistance. Relatedly silver hasn't made it through its resistance lying about 5% below it.

It appears that this gold rally is being fueled by mines covering their hedged production primarily. Of course there is the negative interest rates and the derisory rates that banks pay to savers making gold more attractive.

It looks like the shorts are doing their all to keep the metals down and there may be a shakeout before gold rises higher



Silver -- Sharefin, 23:40:01 05/07/02 Tue

Excerpted from CRA's "Stocks of Silver Around the World" 1991 Report

CRA estimates that the amount of bullion "available" to the market is only:

* 67 million ounces at $5 per troy ounce silver

* 236 million ounces at $10 per troy ounce silver

* 482 million ounces at $15 per troy ounce silver

* 744 million ounces at $20 per troy ounce silver

---
Please remember that this report was established from numbers prior to 1991 when far larger stocks of silver existed.



Gold -- Sharefin, 23:28:05 05/07/02 Tue

In pursuit of the golden grail

Some see exchange-traded bullion in our future

Mining executives are probing demand for an electronic proxy for gold, in theory similar to the so-called Nasdaq 100 cubes (QQQ). With gold-mining shares at three-year highs in North America and other markets around the world, individual interest in the metal is rising.



Gold -- Sharefin, 23:21:52 05/07/02 Tue

Depression TV

Unable to keep my mouth shut at cocktail parties and such, I found myself ranting this weekend about how the dollar is a fraud, how overvalued stocks are, and how the only way to preserve value is through hard assets, like gold. Everything else, from stocks, to bonds to real estate, to the very dollar itself will go down - substantially - in value.



Gold -- Sharefin, 23:19:35 05/07/02 Tue

History Suggests Gold Could Hit $800 An Ounce

This highlights the counter cyclical nature of gold relative to bonds and equities. A multitude of factors, technical, fundamental and cyclical, are responsible. But one thing seems certain: the price can go considerably higher, outperforming even the previous peak of $850 an ounce in January 1980.



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:24:06 05/07/02 Tue

Gold Rally Underpinned By Long-Term Trend Changes

A continuing bull run in gold is not just fueled by volatile conditions in global financial markets and the ongoing weakness of the U.S. dollar against other currencies, but is grounded in a long-term trend showing fundamental and economic reversals of fortune, market observers said.



Silver -- Sharefin, 22:21:32 05/07/02 Tue

Silver lease rates just doubled



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:20:11 05/07/02 Tue

NY gold turns up as longs protect against sellers



Gold -- Sharefin, 22:16:42 05/07/02 Tue

Gold bulls beware



SilverDragon -- Sharefin, 22:02:58 05/07/02 Tue

It'll be time for a new boat when glod hits $1000.(:-))))



Golden Rocket? -- SilverDragon, 20:35:04 05/07/02 Tue

Golden Rocket?

Rode the ‘1987 Golden Rocket'.
Was a fun ride!!!

Does anyone think we may now quickly be in store for another ‘Golden Ride'?

Now … same as … $10.00 … 1987 … USAGX … Rest Stop?

Look at the USAGX chart and you decide…
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=usagx&sid=0&o_symb=usagx&freq=2&time=20&x=43&y=20



Gold -- Sharefin, 19:52:41 05/07/02 Tue

J.P. Morgan Chase Gold Department In Serious Trouble

This morning I received a phone call from the best of sources in South Africa. The source has a friend who spent some time recently with two J.P. Morgan Chase senior bankers. The friend was told by the Morgan people that they have "lost control of the gold market and that the gold derivative department was a mess." The two Morgan people felt it was so bad that J.P. Morgan Chase (the bank itself) might not make it through the year. They suggested my source buy $330 Feb gold calls.

Separate from these two Morgan bankers, my source received the following from a futures and options broker in London who works for one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks:

*There is an investigation now being conducted on the gold derivative department of J.P. Morgan Chase.

*The man who ran the department was fired.

*This was discussed on CNBC Europe, but was called "still a rumor" by the CNBC host.

*It appears the conspiracy guys were right all along.

A Canadian source of mine later confirmed that the man who ran Morgan's gold derivative department had indeed left the firm. Morgan is putting a different spin on the reason for his departure. What you expect from a bunch of lying crooks?

Subsequently, another outstanding source informs me he hears Dinsa Mehta, former long-time chief bullion dealer at Chase Bank, was fired two weeks ago. Mehta was the one who went nuts when Reg Howe revealed their OCC gold derivative position a couple of years ago. He called in his accountants, etc, to find out how that happened. It was that discovery that led to GATA's Gold Derivative Banking Crisis document. Frank Veneroso, Reg Howe, Chris Powell and I presented that document to the Speaker of the House, Denny Hastert. Then, I delivered to every member of the House and Senate banking committees the following day.

Too bad they did not pay more attention to what we had to say.

This is a bombshell and confirms what Midas and Jim Sinclair have alerted Café members to:

*The Gold Cartel is not in control of the gold market. The longs, led by Hung Fat and Dr. No., are teasing the Gold Cartel and eating their lunch, buying the dips.

*A gold derivative banking crisis is not far off.

*Panic gold producer buy-backs cannot be too far off either.

*The price of gold is going to explode.

*There is no telling what can happen to those bullion bankers and gold producers that have too much gold derivative exposure.



Gold -- Sharefin, 01:04:07 05/07/02 Tue

JHB, Aussie golds keep truckin'

Australian and South African gold shares gained this morning as both markets reacted to continued bullion strength over the weekend. Gold was trading up at $311.40 near midday in Johannesburg.
Much of the support for the metal is thought to come from its inverse correlation to the US dollar - which is weaker against most major currencies - and general uneasiness among US investors after the poorer than expected jobless figures reported in the US on Friday.

Greg Potter, senior trader at Johannesburg bank BoE, said the rally in South African gold shares would continue as long as the strong appetite from US funds continued. "The South African gold shares are still cheaper than the US gold shares and the weaker dollar makes a strong case for (US funds) to keep buying here," said Potter.



Gold -- Sharefin, 01:02:29 05/07/02 Tue

Tapping gold's latent market

Gold Fields' chairman Chris Thompson believes the drive to market and sell gold jewellery is not enough to mop up a physical gold overhang, given the metal's latent potential in the investment sector. Marketing gold jewellery subjects bullion to changes in fashion and economic cycles.
Speaking on Classic Business, Miningweb's radio sister show, Thompson said one of his goals at the World Gold Council will be to foster investment demand for gold and make it easier to own gold. Thompson is due to become the WGC's chairman in July this year.

"The big opportunity is actually to develop the investment side of the business because I do believe, I personally believe, that there is a large latent investment demand out there which we need to foster; we need to make it much easier to own gold, we have to get rid of all the legacy of denial that was in the past when you couldn't own it. It is now possible and we need to make the whole system easy to handle, so that that potential demand can be triggered. It will absorb much of the potential bank gold that the banks may ultimately want to sell. That's the big challenge ahead of us," Thompson said.

"What I do see the focus for some time ahead is trying to make it much easier to own gold if you, a portfolio, want to own it. Let me put it even more specifically. Most portfolios, equity managers' portfolios, are, by mandate, not allowed to own gold. Most of the mandates around the world dictate you can own equities, bonds, tradable instruments, etc, but physical bullion you can't own - so that a huge part of the investment universe is actually denied the opportunity to do so. We need to make it possible for them to own gold. So there's a lot of thinking going on in the business about how we can free up that potential market," he said.

Commenting on the case brought in the US by the Gold Anti-Trust Association (Gata), Thompson said he was sceptical. The Gata case was "highly circumstantial," he said. "You know when you go out on a rainy day and you see everybody carrying an umbrella, one might be tempted to think there's a conspiracy going on about umbrellas, but it's because it's raining. Gold was going down and everybody jumped on the gold bandwagon because it was going down and everybody made money hedging. The bullion community also got involved and I think central banks decided to bank out. It could have looked like a conspiracy amongst the knowledgeable. I would be very surprised if you could prove it," Thompson said. Gata's case was thrown out of court before it could get to the all-important discovery stage. This was after the judge found Gata representative Reginald Howe to be an "inappropriate plaintiff".



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:58:31 05/07/02 Tue

US faltering, boon for gold

Gold continued its bull run today, breaking through the $312/oz level as investors continued to feed on negative US economic data and a weakening dollar.
The Japanese government's removal of deposit guarantees, political unrest in the Middle East, rising oil prices, producer hedge buybacks and a looming decrease in new mine supply have all been touted as reasons behind the latest sustained run in the gold price, but the metal's latest growth spurt has been aided by the weak US currency, which has finally started to show signs of weakness as the spin put on a recovery in the world's largest economy starts to fade.

The answer, for at least some of them, is gold; and given the sheer volumes of cash out there, there could still be considerable upside for the metal.

"My personal view is that this run still has a way to go. My feeling is that there is at least a year or two of a sustained price to come," said Hart.



Gold -- Sharefin, 00:54:45 05/07/02 Tue

Gold Fields raid talk persists

There has been no let up in market talk that Gold Fields [GFI; GOLD] is about to be taken out. Barrick [ABX] and AngloGold [AU] are the usual suspects and not without good reason.

Rumours have escalated to the point where the involvement of Barrick and AngloGold is regarded as a fait accompli; all that remains is to confirm out the details of the transaction. Trade in Gold Fields's Nasdaq depository receipt has rocketed with recent daily volumes more than double those at the start of the year.

The logic for such an arrangement is compelling.

Anglo American can retain its diffident aura whilst securing additional gold exposure outside SA. No less important is the fact that in a rising price environment hedge book dilution is essential. Gold Fields's mammoth, unencumbered reserves are exactly the right medicine for leading hedgers Barrick and AngloGold.



POSTS -- Sharefin, 23:38:30 05/06/02 Mon

I posted some excellent articles just prior to the forum archiving itself.

Click here to read them



Gold - 25th April article by Jake Bernstein -- Sharefin, 23:29:35 05/06/02 Mon

Critical Juncture in Equities, Interest Rates and Gold!

The market has risen as equity indices have declined - which is a natural and typical relationship (although not always true). Seasonal tendencies in gold futures still point to the downside. The generally high level of sentiment combined with resistance and seasonal factors all suggest that a point of decision has now developed in gold. My work suggests that within the next two days gold will either break out decisively to the upside, or it will decline back to support in the $292 US area.

· In the interim,. equity futures have declined for a variety of reasons including, but not limited to, disappointing earnings, a continued economic slow down, chronic Middle East conflict, another "shakeout" in the telecom sector, and rising energy prices. It would appear, by all available evidence, that the outlook for stocks is bleak and not about to change dramatically.

As you can see, the markets have come together with resistance, seasonals and timing in a "grand scheme" that is likely to resolve itself in the next few days, possibly as early as today . In short, the moment of truth has arrived.

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