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gold news & views - charts & more
not so much a forum but rather a news archive

Japanese Banking -- Sharefin, 09:36:11 03/09/02 Sat

Local gov'ts in dilemma over public deposits

goldcorp -- Cyclist, 07:44:00 03/08/02 Fri

has a nice entry point.SWC on its way to 20

Gold -- Cyclist, 07:17:39 03/08/02 Fri

will give a bounce next hour.
Oil stalled

Gold -- Cyclist, 07:00:21 03/08/02 Fri

will give a bounce next hour.
Oil stalled

Gold Specimens -- Sharefin, 00:52:44 03/08/02 Fri

Museum Victoria Gold Collection

Gold in O/S currencies -- Sharefin, 21:53:27 03/07/02 Thu

It appears from the above chart that England has been selling into a rising market.
And this in an attempt to quell the price of gold...
What a parody....

Now isn't that what happened in America in the late 70's???

Now England's reserves are down to 7% backed, if it wanted to join the Euro it would have to re-purchase the gold it has just sold to bring it's reserves back up to 15%.
Fools & their follies....

Here's some more charts on the various prices of gold reflected in the local currency price.
It's very clear that gold is on a bull run in all the currencies (Gold being the ultimate US$ hedge)
And these prices get the double whammy of appreciating when the US Dollar comes off as gold will then strongly rise.

Australian Gold
Canadian Gold
Chinese Gold
Euro Gold
French Gold
German Gold
Great Britain Gold
Indian Gold
Japan Gold
South African Gold
Swiss Gold

And the same for silver:

Australian Silver
Canadian Silver
Chinese Silver
Euro Silver
French Silver
German Silver
Great Britain Silver
Indian Silver
Japan Silver
South African Silver
Swiss Silver

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:31:45 03/07/02 Thu

Japanese gold rush amid fears of financial crisis

Kakuko Arai at first could not decide what to do with the cash she obtained by selling her house after her husband died last year.
She ruled out time deposits at banks because financial institutions seemed unstable, but thought stocks could also be risky since their prices are plunging. So she decided to turn some of her money into gold.

"I'm afraid the banks would collapse, and I don't know too much about financial products," said the 61-year-old, who bought two one-kilogram bars of gold for about 2.7 million yen at a store in Tokyo's Ginza district.

"At least with gold, I know it will not become worthless, whatever happens," she said.

Many Japanese investors worried about the health of Japanese banks and the government's plan to scrap a blanket guarantee on bank deposits on April 1 are making the same choice as Arai, causing a bit of a gold rush in the nation.

In 2001, gold sales for investors in Japan increased about 24% from the previous year to 64 tons, according to the World Gold Council. (WGC). The surge is continuing, with sales reaching 10 tons just in the month of January and 25 tons predicted for February, the WGC said.

Please note that the 25 tons of sales for February equate to approx 804,000 ounces.
Valued at approx $290 per ounce this would then be worth approx $233 million or just over a quarter of a billion dollars.
Not bad purchases for one month.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:25:28 03/07/02 Thu

175m pounds cost of gold meddle

A study released by the World Gold Council (WGC) to coincide with the last of 17 government gold sales argues the Treasury has incurred significant losses by choosing to convert more than half of its reserves of the precious metal into foreign currency.

The WGC said its research showed that the Government's decision to dispose of 395 tonnes of gold was misguided.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:24:27 03/07/02 Thu

Thompson set to leave Gold Fields

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:23:24 03/07/02 Thu

Gold hedges tapering off

Gold hedges will taper off in the next year as mining houses seek greater price exposure, said Virtual Metals Research & Consulting.
Gold hedging - selling gold at fixed prices before it is mined - has been a popular industry tactic to guarantee revenue, but critics assert the practice stymies market-driven price moves.

It also has punished some heavily-hedged companies, who actually lost money when they were forced to buy gold at higher prices than they had agreed to sell under options agreements.

Gold prices are near their highest in more than two years.

Hedging encouraged central banks to lend more of their gold, which would otherwise have remained dormant in vaults.

In 1999, the major central banks of Europe agreed to limit lending.

“Hedging really distorted the supply and demand balance, which had a short to medium-term impact on the price,” Virtual Metals CE Jessica Cross said.

“But now it is coming full circle and you could actually see the whole thing unwinding and becoming supportive of the price,' Cross said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:21:43 03/07/02 Thu

No Further Overhang Of UK Auctions To Depress Gold Price

According to the World Gold Council the remaining 320 tonnes of gold left after the sale of 395 tonnes will be equivalent to only 7 per cent of the UK's gross reserves. At this level the UK will have the lowest proportion of gold amongst the leading nations of the European Union and the net result will have been to increase significantly the exposure of the UK economy to the unpredictable policies of the US, Euro-zone and Japanese central banks and governments. By tying the value of the UK's reserves to the success or failures of overseas governments HM Treasury has reduced the UK's economic independence. This, claims the WGC, is further emphasised by the growing inter-dependence of the US, European and Japanese economies. A weakening of any one of these could have a detrimental impact on the others and on the three currencies in which the UK holds the bulk of its reserves.

Gold is the one monetary asset which is no one else's liability. Love it or hate it, gold will not go away and cannot be ignored. It will be interesting to watch the price now that there is no overhang of UK sales.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:19:16 03/07/02 Thu

Canadian gold stocks fall 4 pct as bullion slides

After recent strength, shares of Canadian gold miners plunged 4 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange Thursday as bullion retreated further from the key $300 level, but gold watchers said positive prospects for the metal were still intact.

The TSE's gold and precious minerals index has fallen 11 percent in a month from above the 6,000 level, which was reached on early-year exuberance that led to predictions that gold's long decline was over and that it would topple $300 an ounce and rise to $325 in 2002.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:18:13 03/07/02 Thu

Understanding gold

In the past few months gold has surprised everyone except the faithful by being extremely well behaved. Twenty years of playing the role of black sheep in the family of asset classes has smeared the reputation of the one element that is unique in that it does not tarnish. But perhaps gold, like so many of us, is simply misunderstood.

For many years, the World Gold Council, as the global advocate for gold in all its forms, has argued that gold is an excellent diversifier for investment portfolios. This argument is based on the lack of correlation between changes in the gold price and movements in stock markets. During times of financial uncertainty, investors turn to gold as an asset of last resort ' a safe haven.

Oil -- Cyclist, 12:37:07 03/07/02 Thu

Topping out and will consolidate around 22.5 until March19.
NG popped out of a reverse head and shoulder formation and
is targeting 5.00 end of May

Hui -- Cyclist, 10:43:28 03/07/02 Thu

primed to hit 79 within the same time frame,a break will
propel it to 73 pronto

April Gold -- Cyclist, 09:56:40 03/07/02 Thu

made a turning point yesterday and poised to land
at 283.5 on March 12.

WHY YOU NEED GOLD -- Sharefin, 08:49:03 03/07/02 Thu


The Aura Of Gold -- Sharefin, 08:34:52 03/07/02 Thu

The Aura Of Gold

Harmony EduGold -- Sharefin, 07:56:24 03/07/02 Thu


Harmony EduGold -- Sharefin, 07:54:44 03/07/02 Thu

Harmony EduGold

Notable Quotes -- Sharefin, 07:35:28 03/07/02 Thu

Notable Quotes

Famous Quotes About Gold -- Sharefin, 07:24:58 03/07/02 Thu

Famous Quotes About Gold

Quotables -- Sharefin, 07:22:19 03/07/02 Thu


Gold -- Sharefin, 04:15:20 03/07/02 Thu

Taiwan's Feb Gold Imports 3,446 Kgs Vs 10,830 Kgs Yr Ago

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:10:26 03/07/02 Thu

Gold auction may not be Britain's last

The international gold market might not have seen the last of the UK's gold auctions, a leading precious metals analyst said yesterday.

Tuesday's auction, the final in a series of 17, concluded the Bank of England's programme to slash the UK's official gold reserves by 58 percent from 715 tons.

Mitsui precious metals analyst Andy Smith said that, with over 300 tons of gold holdings left, the bank could opt to resume its gold tenders in the future.

"The fat lady [of Threadneedle Street] may not have finished singing. Least transparent of all is why the music should stop at 320 tons left in UK gold reserves," Smith said.

"The question is: 'is this really the last UK sale?' The flaw in the so-called transparency of auctions is that the choice of 320 tons left in reserves after the auctions is completely opaque," he added.

Before Tuesday's auction a treasury spokesperson said there were no plans to hold any more sales after the 2004 expiry of the five-year central bank Washington accord, which capped sales at 400 tons a year.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:03:50 03/07/02 Thu

Gold's future seen shiny

The gold market is emerging from cyclical lows, making gold miners a potentially attractive investment, according to Jeremy Metcalfe, chairman of UK-listed investment company Tiger Resource Finance

"Gold has been basically in a 20-year bear cycle. When something has been in a bear cycle for so long it takes a lot to turn it around, and I think what is in the process of turning it around is the Japanese banking system," Metcalfe told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday.

Dave, you "Borged" that one -- Sharefin, 03:59:14 03/07/02 Thu

Potemkin Village

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:55:36 03/07/02 Thu

Fidelity US manager seeks solace in gold

The BORG commeth... -- Dave, 03:05:04 03/07/02 Thu

In 2002, the lowest marginal income tax level is 44.31 percent, then it increases to 49.77 percent and 63.33 percent. Forty percent of the working people pay the top marginal tax rate of 63.33 percent, which applies to all income over $33,000.

There are very few tax deductions available, and the tax value of the tax deductions is continuously being reduced.

A sales tax of 25 percent hits just about everything.

The capital gains tax is 59.7 percent for a private person in the high income tax bracket, unless you hold your investment for more than 3 years. It then falls to 44.8 percent.

There are additional taxes on "sinful" and "luxury" products likes cigarettes, alcohol, candy, soft drinks, electronic goods, and other luxuries.

For cars, there is a 180 percent special tax on top of the sales tax of 25 percent. Then there is a registration fee and a weight fee to be paid twice per year for the privilege of using the roads. The price of gasoline is nearly three times as high as it is in the US.
Fidelity US manager seeks solace in gold

Technology stocks are unlikely to make the big comeback many US investors are looking for and may even contract more, says Fidelity's North American fund manager, John Muresianu who has moved overweight into gold to limit his risk against further volatility.

Muresianu, who is has been well-known in the fund management sector for several years and is something of a legend to the IFA sector, is taking what he describes as a "contrary" approach and staying away from defensive stocks while markets are still unstable.

"Although stock prices are down, they are not down as much as the fundamentals. Finance stocks are highly overvalued and derivatives exposure will show themselves as a big problem going forward, alongside a negative bid against blue chip growth companies."

Rather than retreating to traditional cyclical stocks, Muresianu has moved the 400-500 stocks held within his portfolio to put the larger weightings in small-cap value stocks, gold and energy stocks because they act in a risk-averse manner.

"The selling and dominant picture for these sectors looks better than it has been in 10 years and there has never been a better opportunity for gold in 20 years, so my position reflects the concern about financial reports," says Muresianu.

"As players in the market become more and more cautious of the levels of risk in the system and deterioration of accounting standards, gold will look more and more attractive. I am convinced that most big stocks are overvalued but most sectors, as they did so in the 70s, can move upwards on the back of this because they are carried by a few [stocks] that do really well."

Lenny Kaplan -- Sharefin, 08:57:33 03/06/02 Wed


Although the final auction of gold by the Bank of England went under the gavel in a most ordinary fashion, it certainly did not meet the irrational expectations of the market, which anticipated a coverage ratio of about 6 to 8 times, and a price above $300. This disappointment led to a rather sharp sell off in the market with one international trading firm, selling about 3000 contracts at critical technical support levels, roiled prices to the $294 level in spot. Excellent physical demand emerged at that level and I would guess that the $292 to $294 level will hold, with prices creeping higher again the next few days. But, all rallies of any considerable nature will have to patiently wait until next week, as option expiration occurs on Friday.

I, for one, am relieved that the Bank of England auctions are now a subject of historians. The psychological effect of these sales cannot be understated to the bull cause. But, I am quite confident that the industry is VERY unhappy about the end of the BOE auctions as they represented a great deal of almost free money. Over the past four years, large trading firms quite easily, and quite profitably, went short gold in front of the auctions.

The Bank of England has lost about $250 Million USD on their sale, on a mark to the market basis. It is perhaps true that the announcement of their auctions may have actually caused excessively low values in the gold price, and their gold was sold quite near the bottom of the market. To demonstrate the extraordinary foolishness of the Bank of England, please note that, on average, all gold sold in the year 2000 was sold at an average of $3.46 UNDER the London A.M. Fix, and in 2002, at an average of $2.93 under. There can no more damning evidence that such statistics. Contrast this with the Swiss, who are about 1/3 of the way through their sales of 1300 tons of gold, 3 times as much as the Bank of England, who quietly and surreptiously sell * to 1 ton a day, each and every day it would appear, and who barely create a ripple on the surface of the gold market.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:54:57 03/06/02 Wed

WGC GOLD DEMAND TRENDS - 24 Page Report - pdf file

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:53:34 03/06/02 Wed

Russia To Boost Gold And Silver Output Over Next Few Years

Within the next few years Russia will be producing over 200 metric tons of gold and 1,500 tons of silver a year, Chairman of the Gold Producers Union Valery Braiko told a meeting of gold producers in Moscow Wednesday.

Braiko said in 2002 Russian gold output would increase by 17-20 tons from the 154.3 tons produced in 2001. Based on 2001 results Russia is now the fifth largest global gold producer, he said.

There are 639 gold producers in Russia. In 2001 63.625 tons of gold was produced by mining companies, and their share in total gold output will increase considerably in 2002.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:51:40 03/06/02 Wed

Russia increases state gold purchases for 2002

Moscow, 6 March: Russia's Gokhran, or state precious metals repository, plans to buy 30t of gold from producers this year, compared with 26t in 2001.

The Gokhran also plans to carry on selling precious metals and gemstones from the State Reserve (Gosfond), selling as much this year as in 2001, Vladimir Rybkin, the Gokhran's deputy head, said.

The Gokhran hopes to generate R30bn in budget revenue from these sales in 2002, Rybkin said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:49:39 03/06/02 Wed

World Gold Council Slates UK Govt Over Gold Reduction Program

The World Gold Council Tuesday slated the U.K. Government over its gold reduction program in the wake of the final stage of the Bank of England's gold reserves reduction program saying that the latest result has "illustrated how misguided the policy is."

"Everything points to a pretty rosy few years for gold and here we are going the wrong way," he said. "When the Chancellor of the Exchequer starts behaving like a fund manger you're going to get these kind of losses."

The spokesperson confirmed that no further sales have been planned, a move which has pleased the WGC who added that since the announcement in May 1999 Treasury Ministers and officials had re-affirmed the intention of maintaining the gold component of the UK's reserves at around 20% of net reserves.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:47:17 03/06/02 Wed's Norman Comments on U.K. Gold Auction

Following are comments by Ross Norman, an analyst at, on the last of a series of 17 auctions to sell part of the U.K. gold reserves.

The Bank of England today sold 20 metric tons of gold at $296.50 an ounce, below the spot rate but the highest price achieved since the auctions began in July 1999.

``They were selling that gold against a fantastically attractive backdrop. You've got South African production at its lowest since 1953, figures out yesterday showing Australian production is in decline, mine expenditure in rapid decline, contraction of the supplier base, people unwinding hedging, a stock market going sideways, lower interest rate environment, the Chinese market on the cusp of opening and investment demand at its embryonic stage.

``I think this whole exercise has been thoroughly misguided. As a result of it we estimate the Exchequer is $280 million poorer on the face it -- enough to buy a couple of hospitals. On economic grounds I don't think you can provide a strong case for moving out of gold and into currencies like the yen and the euro, both of which have depreciated, and the dollar, which provides a negative real interest rate. Against an asset which has appreciated over the period of time by 15 percent and does provide an interest rate over and above that.''

On central bank sales:

``There are central banks that want to leave and they're trying to form an orderly queue. I think these chaps are behind the times. Yes they've seen the gold market in a 22-year decline, but I don't think they're fully aware of the blueprint which the producers have to make gold significantly different.''

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:44:53 03/06/02 Wed

German finance ministry, Buba spurn gold sale call

The German Bundesbank and finance ministry on Tuesday rejected suggestions by some government politicians that holes in the public purse could be plugged by the sale of gold and foreign exchange reserves.

"That would be a breach of the (European Union's) Maastricht treaty and would hurt the independence of the Bundesbank," a spokesman for the German central bank said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:41:58 03/06/02 Wed

Gold Will Remain Low As Central Banks Line Up To Sell

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:39:32 03/06/02 Wed

Analyst Sees Lower Real Gold Prices Through 2006/07

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) gold analyst Anthony Simms said he sees real gold prices continuing downward through 2006/07.

Simms told ABARE Outlook 2002 attendees prices will be under pressure due to an expected increase in official sector sales, private sector disinvestment and producer hedging.
“Central bank gold sales are expected to increase after September 2004, with the expiration of the current Washington Agreement, which limits official sales. Producer hedging is expected to decline in 2002 before increasing over the medium term, as the contango available to producers improves,” Simms said.

Simms said supply from private disinvestment of gold is also expected to increase over the medium term, as the need to use gold as a safe haven investment diminishes. “These factors will place downward pressure on prices,” he predicts.

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:38:07 03/06/02 Wed

UK gold sales end. Who's next?

Britain 'worse off' after selling gold reserves

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:36:10 03/06/02 Wed

HM Government Gold Auction Result: 5 March 2002

Gold -- Sharefin, 08:34:09 03/06/02 Wed

All that glitters is not gold

Do you believe? - off gold subject -- Sharefin, 22:46:29 03/05/02 Tue

The Inside Truth

Do you believe? - off gold subject -- Sharefin, 22:15:12 03/05/02 Tue

Spot the Boeing

I had to post this as it's almost the same as the gold markets.
Lies, deceipt & the missing booty.

Short term rally April gold, -- Cyclist, 10:49:58 03/05/02 Tue

from an hourly cycle perspective,to start second hour of tomorrow's trading day ,coinciding with a Wednesday turning
point on the daily cycle.

The Coming Bull Market in Gold -- Sharefin, 10:01:41 03/05/02 Tue

The Coming Bull Market in Gold - 1997 article

Option strategies -- Sharefin, 08:46:36 03/05/02 Tue

Paul van Eeden's Options Strategies

Jeff Howard's Options Strategies

Understanding the Gold Price - Paul Van Eeden - PDF File

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:28:42 03/05/02 Tue

The Gold & Silver Room

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:23:18 03/05/02 Tue

Old Gold Rush Report - March 2000 - PDF File

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:24:29 03/05/02 Tue

Gold To Test $300 After BOE Hurdle

Spot gold was little changed Tuesday in Asia in very thin trade limited mostly to some last-minute position squaring before the final Bank of England gold auction slated for later in the global day, traders said.

Still, many market watchers said gold looks poised to make another run at the $300 mark once this auction is out of the way.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:22:45 03/05/02 Tue

Gold price rally 'likely to be short'

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:21:15 03/05/02 Tue

Gold exports tipped to climb despite production fall

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:18:48 03/05/02 Tue

Ray of hope for Wellesley-Wood

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:16:06 03/05/02 Tue

Gold Price to Average $285 in 2002 as Demand Rises, Abare Says

Canberra, March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices are expected to average 5.5 percent higher in 2002 as rising demand from jewelers outpaces growth in supplies from companies such as Newmont Mining Corp., Australian forecaster Abare said.

Gold prices are expected to average $285 an ounce this year, up from $270 an ounce in 2001, Abare said in a report presented to its Outlook conference in Canberra. Gold in 2003 is expected to average $289 an ounce, Abare said. Spot gold Monday closed at $296.85 an ounce and has averaged $288.92 so far this year.

The metal has risen 9.2 percent since Sept. 11 as companies such as AngloGold Ltd. cut sales of borrowed gold and investors bought bullion because of concern currency and equity markets may slump after terrorist attacks on the U.S. Gold is Australia's third-biggest export earner after coal and crude oil.

``The increase in the gold price is based on an expectation of stable official sector sales, flat world production, rising fabrication consumption, and an increasing short term role for gold as a safe haven,'' the forecaster said.

Gold demand from jewelers is expected to rise 5.8 percent to 3,685 metric tons in 2002, from 3,483 tons in 2001, Abare said.

Production is likely to rise 0.4 percent to 2,605 tons this year from 2,595 tons in 2001, the report said. Output will drop to 2,585 tons in 2003 after companies cut back on exploring for new reserves because prices fell to 20-year lows in 1999.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:14:09 03/05/02 Tue

Bank of England ends gold sales this Tuesday

BoE conducts last gold auction

Britain conducts Tuesday the last in a controversial three-year series of gold auctions, which have more than halved its bullion reserves, raising eyebrows in the City and occasional alarm in the gold market.

The Bank of England is to sell off a last lot of 20 tonnes of the precious metal on behalf of the government, the 17th and last auction of a programme to channel a greater portion of its reserves into currencies such as the dollar, euro and yen.

The original announcement in 1999 of the plan to slash the bank's 715-tonne gold stockpile by more than half horrified financial observers brought up to revere bullion as a safe haven in times of economic trouble.

"Twenty tons of gold in the London Bullion market which turns over excess of 600 tons a day is not meaningful and the gap that will be left by the UK will probably be filled by the Swiss and maybe some others as well so it's not going to materially affect the supply-demand equation for the gold market," said Williamson.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:05:23 03/05/02 Tue

Worried Japanese go shopping for gold off the shelf

AFTER a decade in which stocks have slumped by 70 per cent, with property values halved and interest rates close to zero, the mood in Tokyo's financial district is almost universally gloomy. But in recent months, retailers of gold have been enjoying a boom in sales.

Japanese are turning to the precious metal, typically bought during times of war and crisis, as a safe haven. It is prized because it can be carried and stored easily and because it endures while currencies and economies collapse.

Japan, the world's second-largest economy, hardly fits the pattern, but fears are mounting that the banking system is lurching towards crisis under a huge burden of bad loans.

Gold -- Sharefin, 09:06:43 03/04/02 Mon

DRD suspends Roger Kebble

DRC's Kebble suspended

Gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) said on Monday it had suspended Roger Kebble as an executive director because of his role in a deal that resulted in substantial losses for the company.

PM Group Opinions -- Sharefin, 09:04:31 03/04/02 Mon




GATA -- Sharefin, 08:52:05 03/04/02 Mon

GATA Urges Support For Congressmen Ron Paul's Gold Transparency Bill

Research by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. has been cited by U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, in support of his legislative proposal to prevent the U.S. government from intervening in the gold market without authorization from Congress.

Markets -- Sharefin, 06:40:16 03/04/02 Mon

Swiss seer ends his silence, but with no welcome tidings

I think we are in a structural bear market that will last for five to 10 years. It is not a nice picture. But it will not go straight down. From time to time there will be fiscal and monetary stimulus. Markets will get oversold and will rise for awhile. Markets will zigzag downward. It will not be over until stocks trade at attractive valuation levels.

Charts vs Charts -- Sharefin, 05:46:00 03/04/02 Mon

Once again Kitco's live gold chart has failed to print the highs in gold when it just passed over $300.
Instead of showing the price it goes to flat line mode.


UK Live Gold

This effect of cutting off the peaks off the rises is starting to become commonplace when specific targets are met.

Gold over $300 -- Sharefin, 02:31:25 03/04/02 Mon

Lenny's Daily Commentary -- Sharefin, 19:03:57 03/03/02 Sun

Daily Precious Metals Report

In general, the precious metals disregarded a raft of economic negatives last week to rally strongly in price. Gold was up $5 on the week, even as the US stock markets surged, even as the value of the USD maintained its lofty perch, and even as the final Bank of England auction of 20 tons of gold looms next Tuesday morning. Last week also saw sizable unprecedented buying of very short term call options, perhaps almost 1.5 million ounces, due to expire next Friday. Open interest on the Comex options is above 5,000 contracts at the $295, $295, $300, $305, and $310 strike prices. I foresee quite a volatile week ahead as any upward price movement will force the sellers of the above options to become large buyers as they "delta" hedge their positions. Please remember that the sellers of call options are forced to buy more and more, in ever increasing quantities, as prices rise in order to maintain a hedged position. And, with such a large open interest in options existent, it may turn out that such buying could become a self-fulfilling prophecy as each purchase of gold forces prices higher, which then necessitates even more buying.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:59:04 03/03/02 Sun

TVX Gold seeks compensation after Greek gold-processing project blocked

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:57:04 03/03/02 Sun

FDR, Thief of America's Gold

As Franklin D. Roosevelt was inaugurated as president on March 4, 1933, Americans were in a state of panic. Banks were failing every day, and people clamoured by the thousands to withdraw their money. Ordinarily they might have accepted paper money in the form of gold certificates, but people feared that the government might simply resort to printing worthless money to meet the massive withdrawal requests. They didn't want paper. They wanted gold. Furthermore, people who had gold certificates rushed to redeem them for real gold.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:53:48 03/03/02 Sun

Gold in the Information Age

We depart from the usual Zeal fare to wax philosophic on the future for gold in the Information Age. Will gold wither or thrive in the next macro-stage of human technology?

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:51:24 03/03/02 Sun

Bundesbank gold sale clarified

"The whole move is Eine Kleine Nachtmusik to the conspiracy theorists' ears. Acting at a time when gold prices looked poised to climb above $300 an ounce, is it a coincidence that a key bullion bank has contradicted all of its previous comments on gold? While we would hesitate before being drawn into the conspirators' camp, it is a question that begs to be asked and eschews a response: a rising gold price is in effect a result of weakening confidence in the global financial system. Operating at the centre of this system, do the central banks really give a thumbs up to a rampaging gold price?"

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:49:12 03/03/02 Sun

Reserve disclosure - the Enron factor

Inconsistent reserve reporting doesn't bother too many people - until you start subtracting ounces. The issue has come to the fore again after the Prudential Securities report that damned a large quantity of Newmont's reserve ounces. It is an industry, not a company, problem.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:45:26 03/03/02 Sun

The best gold investments - indexed funds

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:43:01 03/03/02 Sun

Gold boss barred from South Africa

Mark Wellesley-Wood, chairman and chief executive of South Africa's Durban Roodepoort Deep, declared he would not relinquish his business responsiblities after South African government officials said Wellesley-Wood could not return to the country. Speaking from London, an audibly incredulous Wellesley-Wood said he was "mystified" at what he believed was a betrayal. "I feel I have been hijacked and personally assassinated. No reason has given. All my papers are in order," he said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:35:57 03/03/02 Sun

Last UK gold auction could be most successful

The final Bank of England gold sale next week could prove the most successful ever as bidders, banking on a repeat of the low allotment price seen at the last auction, pile in to snap up some bargain bullion, traders said.

Since Britain's central bank announced its selling intentions in May 1999, the auctions have become an almost routine part of the fabric of the bullion market and have sometimes suffered from a sheer lack of interest.

But traders said this auction could attract record levels of attention as players seize the opportunity to grab a share of the 20-tons parcel at a low price.

"It's the final auction, so it's the last chance for people to get the gold, so I would expect everyone to pile in. People will be hoping that the price will be as low as last time and that they can buy the metal more cheaply than, say, getting it at the morning fix," one said.

"I don't think there will be any surprises ahead of the auction in terms of the price, however immediately after I think we'll see some action," one trader said.

Peter Hillyard, senior manager of precious metals at the London arm of Australian bank ANZ, said: "We may find the last sale will be interesting. I believe the gold price will be above $300."

"We have never before had an auction where the price has had a three in front of it and I think this time we could see this," Hillyard said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:33:20 03/03/02 Sun

US slowdown swaying investors to gold

One option in analysing the present situation might be to pose the question, 'what is different in the gold market at present as opposed to other occasions when gold price increases were experienced?' The most glaring difference is the economic slowdown being experienced by the US and other developed markets at present, he observes The recent liquidation of large US gas company Enron, coupled with the decreasing shareprices of other major US companies, are being reported as some of the reasons for the move of investors to the gold market.

Chilling News from S.Africa! -- cb2, 16:52:21 03/03/02 Sun

Or is it only Kebble-istic?

Gold boss barred from S. Africa
Mark Wellesley-Wood, the UK-born chairman and chief executive of Durban Roodepoort Deep, has been refused re-entry to South Africa ahead of litigation against former business associates, JCI Gold and Consolidated African Mines.

Whatever it is, knowing M.W-W. it must be more. A shadow of Zimbawe crossing over the sun of the socialist government may also foretell the fate of SA - in the end.

Very disturbing - though the cabal (if there is one - or two) will it find most distressing, when the largest producer is in disarry. Or will this be the final excuse to paper over the dirty game?

As much as i'd like to show my allegiance to Durban, Goldfields and Harmony - I'm rather leaving this country for good, and go physical (almost) only - (Hello Belgian), took me awhile, though got more to go.

Mesmerized, seeing through? cb2

When -- JPS, 10:03:34 03/03/02 Sun

when will the SM fall after this rally...Tuesday maybe?
If the BoE auction gets a good result...and the SM falls... hello gold stocks

Glod not mentioned here gata love it though... -- TYoung, 20:03:46 03/02/02 Sat

Pictures of a Stock Market Mania

Let me try this again...grrr...sorry -- TYoung, 14:22:27 03/02/02 Sat

Contrary Investor

Glod never mentioned...nor need it be.. -- TYoung, 14:18:34 03/02/02 Sat

Gold -- Sharefin, 10:14:07 03/01/02 Fri

Gold's tiny nuggets are thriving

Veteran gold investors, like Bishop at Gold Mining Stock Report, acknowledge the price of gold needs to notch more gains to keep the high-fliers, well, flying. "Almost nothing in the gold stock sector is cheap at this time," he is telling clients. Yet Bishop is very optimistic that bullion will continue its slow march across the $300 level and beyond. "My expectation is that the days of gold trading below $300 are severely limited."

Gold -- Sharefin, 09:15:04 03/01/02 Fri

ITM Trading Newsletter

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:40:25 03/01/02 Fri

Paul & GOLD - Greenspan & ENRON

The following is the official transcript of February 27th exchange between U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan before the House Financial Services Committee.

Charts to view -- Sharefin, 23:53:03 02/28/02 Thu




Looking at the teacups -- Sharefin, 23:28:59 02/28/02 Thu

Gold & the other PM's look set to break out short term.

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:27:04 02/28/02 Thu

Global Player: Gold's Luster Starts To Return, It's Virtues Can Hide Big Risks

Global Player: Gold's Luster Starts To Return, Part 2

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:22:01 02/28/02 Thu

Gold Ends Higher, Despite GDP Gain

Precious metals futures settled mixed Thursday with gold seen as lethargic and unable to hold onto its early gains on fund and trade buying, although it did manage to close higher than Wednesday.

Fund buying and support by two major trading firms were responsible for an early move up to $298 an ounce, but some participants agreed that overreaction to news reports that the U.S. was bombing anti-aircraft sites in the northern no-flight zone inside Iraq was an underlying reason for the bullish tone in the market.

"Something's clearly going on in gold," Tyree at RCG said. "It's not just Japanese buying, it's not just alternative investments, it's not just short covering. It's a combination of these things."

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:19:35 02/28/02 Thu

Mexico's December Gold Output Up 31.1% To 2,897 Kg

Mexico's December Silver Output Up 13% To 262,399 Kg

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:17:28 02/28/02 Thu

Gold cautious before UK sale

COMEX gold was constrained by the approach of Britain's final 20-tons bullion auction on Tuesday

The floor continued to buzz about options interest and the purchase of $295 and $325 calls on Wednesday, after a chunky bullish call option transaction went through late last week.

Some were puzzled by the timing of such a transaction so close to a Bank of England auction, which in most previous instances the market approached from the short side.

"The market is aware that central bank sales are a threat to the market and yet we see continued buying,"

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:15:02 02/28/02 Thu

WSJ- HEARD ON THE NET:Gold Has New Luster For Investors

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:12:21 02/28/02 Thu

Production of gold falls to new low

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:08:40 02/28/02 Thu

Is It Really a Gold Rush?

Some predict that this change could send millions of Japanese rushing to their banks to withdraw their savings and begin buying gold, foreign currency and overseas stocks. The speculation has the media in a froth and foreign brokers and bankers in Tokyo licking their lips.

Gold -- Sharefin, 23:06:38 02/28/02 Thu

Gold's catapult to $335 still in play

Gold -- Sharefin, 22:09:06 02/28/02 Thu

Mahendra's Prophecy

Next three months' predictions from 01-3-2002 TO 30-6-2002

Gold Prices will rise (Jupiter is saying)

As I predicted that in early 2002 we will see a rise in gold prices we are already seeing that.

According to the planetary position jupiter is saying gold prices will rise continually in the next three months.

In the mid year of 2001 I had mentioned in my interview with the SABC (South African Broad Casting) and many Radio & TV interviews that Gold prices will reach a historic high price in 2002/3. Also in my book (WORLD PROPHESIES) I have mentioned about the gold price rise and I have given many reasons for that as follows:

(a) Uncertainty in stock market which will make the common man lose faith in the stock shares.
(b) A big business house will collapse which example we are seeing in ENRON - many investors have shaken
(c) Middle East Crises.
(d) Counterfeit in the US dollar which is the heart currency for the world.

This above reasons will help the gold prices to shoot up. That is what Jupiter is saying.

From early March i.e. 1/3/2002. Jupiter is entering in the 12 degree which will give a boost to yellow valuable metal which is gold. In these three months gold prices can reach US $ 350.


Not only is it written in the stars but also in time & price:

Also here:

Gold -- Sharefin, 21:57:41 02/28/02 Thu

Gold Is Beginning to Sparkle Again As Investors Seek Stable Investments

Abandoned for years by all but a loyal group of investment curmudgeons, Wall Street has got gold fingers again.

The precious metal recently rose above $300 an ounce, its highest level in nearly two years, and mutual funds that invest in gold mining companies have been star performers against a backdrop of dismal performance in other areas of the stock market.

The rise stems largely from increased demand in the U.S., where low interest rates have made bond and money-market yields unattractive and fears of war in the Middle East have people looking for safer investments. Also giving the price a boost is renewed interest by Japanese investors who are looking to guard against the falling value of the yen. Many Japanese, worried about the health of commercial banks amid a prolonged economic crisis, also have been shifting money out of savings accounts into gold as their government prepares to end blanket deposit-insurance.

To some, the minigolden age has been a long time coming. Indeed, to a group of hardy investors known as gold bugs, the rise in gold price isn't so much a profit opportunity as vindication. "Gold has been a currency for 3000 years and it's only in the past 20 that people have forgotten about its importance," says Henry Bingham, a strategist at Van Eck Global, a New York investment firm that specializes in natural-resources stocks and commodities. Mr. Bingham says he has invested in gold since 1967. "What we are seeing now is a secular revaluation of gold, back to somewhere close to where it belongs," he says. The gold rally has helped the Van Eck International Gold Fund rise by 51% in the past 12 months, close to the 54% rise posted by the American Stock Exchange Gold Bugs Index. During that same period, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is down 10.5%.

But before saddling your horse to get in on the action, consider this: Ever since gold peaked at more than $800 an ounce in 1980, every few years prices have spiked, tempting investors into thinking a new gold rush was about to happen. Indeed, some money managers caution that recent gains might be just another tease. For example, gold prices rallied in 1998 after the Russian government defaulted on its debt and the Federal Reserve had to orchestrate a bailout of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. But gold quickly fell back as investors became infatuated with technology stocks.

For gold prices to rise or even maintain their current levels, experts say, two things must happen: Interest rates must remain low and the U.S. dollar must weaken. Clearly, short-term interest rates are low now, but many economists believe they aren't likely to fall further, and indeed could start to rise if the economy improves. Their argument was reinforced somewhat Wednesday by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who told Congress that he sees signs the recession is winding down. And the dollar remains strong, compared to the yen or euro, and shows little sign of weakening.

The strong dollar is bad news because as other currencies weaken, the amount of gold foreign buyers can afford goes down, thus depressing demand. Also, if gold prices remain high for a year or two, mining companies may well boost capacity, which eventually would boost supply.

Because the equation for a sustained rally in gold prices is incomplete, Bill Martin, co-manager of the American Century Global Gold Fund, which is up 60% in the past year, says now may not be the time to start dabbling in gold and gold-related stocks. "Some gold stocks are up 70% and the price of gold is only up 10%, so something has got to give," he says.

Gold is the ultimate in defensive investing. It can be worth putting a small portion of your portfolio in it, but it's unwise to put a lot of money into gold unless you subscribe to the following: 1) You think stocks are overvalued. 2) You believe corporations are going to default more often on bonds and other debt obligations. 3) Deflationary pressures, or a weak economic recovery, will erode corporate earnings. 4) The U.S. dollar will fall and banks will be weakened by their lending and derivatives exposure to parties like Enron.

Because many gold bugs take some or all of these views, they stand apart from Wall Street's bulls. Indeed, rather than pore through balance sheets or examine corporate trends, as many portfolio managers do, gold bugs tend to be well-versed in such things as the history of central banks' monetary policies. Such histories are useful for gold investors to know because central banks are big owners of gold and frequently sell it or lend it to short sellers, both of which serve to help lower gold's price. "There's a lot more to our kind of investing than figuring out how much toothpaste some consumer-oriented company is going to sell," says Gregory Orrell, manager of the Monterey OCM Gold Fund, who started following gold after his father invested in several mining businesses.

Indeed, the price of gold dipped to around $290 last week after the German central bank hinted it would sell gold, though prices stabilized after investors realized those sales wouldn't occur until 2005 at the earliest. Such gyrations are signs of novices in the gold market these days, some investors say.

And while the Enron debacle might make gold seem like a relatively safe investment, the sector is filled with its own horror stories of dubious management teams touting phony Mother Lodes. In 1997, for example, a Canadian company called Bre-X Minerals burned scores of investors who bid up its stock after company officials told of a huge strike in Indonesia that proved bogus. "Gold is about the most illiquid of all the major sectors that people invest in," says David Gillespie, manager of the Rydex Precious Metals Fund. "It's not a place to play."

That said, there are plenty of legitimate gold-mining companies in which to invest. Mr. Martin, the American Century money-manager says people seeking to invest in the sector should consider Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold. Neither can be considered cheap by conventional measures -- shares of Newmont, which is based in Denver and trades on the New York Stock Exchange, have risen 54% in the past year and fetch a hefty 61 times anticipated earnings. Barrick, based in Toronto, fetches 32 times expected earnings and its stock has risen 27% on the Big Board in the past year. Indeed, most gold stocks are relatively expensive these days, fetching on average 37 times earnings, compared to 31 for the entire Standard & Poor's 500, according to, an investment research company.

Newmont recently completed its acquisition of Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining and has acquired control of Australia's Normandy Mining, so it could benefit from squeezing out costs, Mr. Martin says. And Barrick, he says, is the lowest-cost producer in the business and also is less vulnerable to market fluctuations because it sells gold in advance at set prices, which protects shareholders if the price of gold falls.

But while the rise in gold reflects a new sense of caution by investors in a world that looks considerably more dangerous than it did a year ago, Mr. Martin says he doesn't sense it will regain its status as the last, best place for investors to park their money. "We live in a paper economy now," he says. "I don't think the demand for hard assets that gold bugs favor is coming back."

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:43:56 02/28/02 Thu

"You have the choice between trusting the natural stability of gold or the honesty and intelligence of members of the government. And with all due respect to these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, vote for gold."

George Bernard Shaw

JP Morgan -- Sharefin, 18:36:38 02/28/02 Thu

JP Morgan & Gold Derivatives

MDG -- Cyclist, 17:31:03 02/28/02 Thu

has moved in the last 5 trading sessions within a dollar.
It is forming a nice flag on the daily,uptrend line is running from January 4,breakout to down side
is 12.80 and the upside is 13.25

SWC follow up -- Cyclist, 16:44:56 02/28/02 Thu

As timing is more important than price,swc was sold at the close.Short term cycle top was reached at the end of the trading session and will reenter in a few days.
FCX,GG and MDG were bought one hour before the close in realignment with the cyclical movement of gold.

Lenny's corner -- Sharefin, 04:48:30 02/28/02 Thu


When the Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserves speaks, the markets watch carefully for any nuance in tone or attitude. When Mr. Greenspan forecast a gradual recovery in the economy in the USA, the markets did not quite know what to do. Certainly, it would be somewhat bearish for gold if the stock markets started doing very well and some fear escaped the general psychology of the markets. But, on the other hand, it is most bullish that USD interest rates will not be raised shortly as debt instruments are certainly competition to gold. All in all, it was most neutral and gold dropped by a bit over $1.50, about a third of yesterday's spectacular rally. Technical support levels of $295 to $296 held nicely and I would think that today was just a bit of a retracement of yesterday's rally.

What I truly haven't figured out is why anyone, much less some professionals in the market, are buying VERY short dated out of the money calls on the floor of the exchange. Yes, it seems true that over 1 million ounces of $300 and $310 calls were bought in the last few days that expire a week from Friday. And, yes, today someone bought about 2000 contracts of the April $325 gold call options. I strongly believe that such trades are just part and parcel of a larger strategy in the gold market, and not just a hope of sharply higher prices in the coming days.

Silver did very little today and is really not worth commenting on. It simply followed the gold price and stayed within expected ranges.

The surprise was the platinum market, up $14 as prices broke major resistance on the charts and flirted with the $500 level on the opening in New York. Its sister, palladium barely noticed and closed roughly unchanged. It seems to be the result of serious short covering in Japan and is not sustainable, in my opinion, as the trade sold heavily into the rally.

The next Bank of England auction occurs next Tuesday, the final sale. And let's look at the results marked to the market. They have sold 12.068 million ounces of gold at an average price of $273.793 so far. With gold now trading at $297.50, that equates to a loss of about $286 Million USD had they just held their original position. Now, to be fair, the above analysis does not consider the interest gained from holding USD, Euros, and Yen, although I suspect such gains do little to better the situation. Looking at the hard numbers, I wonder why other Central Banks would even consider selling into a gold market that looks to go higher for the first time in decades.

The gold market remains quite firm even with the USD very strong. I would believe that sharp increases in the gold price remain outside the realm of possibility if the USD remains as strong in the near future. Yes, we can go higher, perhaps $310 to $315, but I would watch the USD carefully for a reliable signal as to the future of gold.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:46:07 02/28/02 Thu

Asia Precious Metals: Gold Barely Moved; Uptrend Intact

Spot gold barely moved in listless trading Thursday in Asia, though market participants and analysts still agree gold appears to be in an uptrend.

"It does feel there is still momentum towards the upside," he said, adding that he is "fairly bullish" that gold might again try to push through resistance around $310/oz.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a weekly commodity market review issued Thursday, also noted gold tested toward $290/oz this week and held above that level.

"The (gold) market appears to be in a gradual trend higher," Commonwealth Bank said.

A notable feature of this year's gold market in Asia has been the strong buying reported from Japan.

Figures issued Wednesday by Japan's Ministry of Finance show gold imports in January rose to 8.17 metric tons, three times the level seen in January 2001 and equivalent to almost 20% of all gold imports for 2001.

The recent interest in gold among Japanese has been largely attributed to the government's plan to pull the plug on its blanket guarantee for bank deposits April 1.

Itsuo Toshima, Japan regional director for the World Gold Council, said the council estimated gold investment demand in Japan for February "looks like it will be in the neighborhood of around 25 tons."

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:43:20 02/28/02 Thu

Bank's last gold sale

THE Bank of England's final auction of gold reserves on 5 March will bring to an end the sale of 120 tonnes announced in May 1999.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:41:35 02/28/02 Thu

Gold Flat As Market Calms

Gold's rally remained on hold on Tuesday, with the metal ending the benchmark London afternoon fixing at $296.50 an ounce. Gold has not come out of the afternoon fixing above $300 since its surge to $304.30 more than a week ago.
"The question at the moment is where support is likely to come in," said Kamal Naqvi, metals analyst at Macquarie Equities. "The issues that were helping last week - the attention focused on Japanese buying and the Enron accounting concerns - seem to have eased a little this week. Without those, people are willing to take some profits or square up some positions."
Traders noted the little central bank activity from Asia. "It's not just selling. Unusually, there seems to be some options activity as well," said one. And, in spite of the latest trend away from hedging by producers, a number of mining companies were also spotted in the market. But volumes were modest.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:34:56 02/28/02 Thu

Rosbank to give $25-30m in advance payments to gold-producing companies

Moscow, Russia, - Rosbank is planning to make advance payments for the extraction of gold and other precious metals to the amount of $25-30 million, according to the bank's press service report. The bank's total turnover of precious metals operations was 152 tons (26 tons of gold and 126 tons of silver) in 2001, up from 140 tons (26 tons of gold and 114 tons of silver) in 2000.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:33:15 02/28/02 Thu

Ghana's gold company works down hedge

Ghanaian miner, Ashanti Goldfields, the African gold producer nearly ruined by overselling before gold rallied in 1999, is working down its hedge book and can stay profitable in gold's current rally up to around $340 an ounce, the company said.

Trevor Schultz, Ashanti's chief operating officer, said in the webcast that the 1,6-million-ounce-a-year producer had reduced its hedge commitment level to 7.5-million ounces from 12-million ounces since incurring market-rattling losses on its forward sales and derivatives positions when gold advanced quickly from $252 an ounce to $340 in late 1999.

“Over this period of time we have not put any new hedges in place,” he said.

“We have just been working to improve and simplify and make our book much more user friendly than it was previously.” Last month Ashanti reached a deal with its creditors to ease its debt burden and potentially make it a more attractive takeover target as the gold industry rapidly consolidates.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:30:27 02/28/02 Thu

Australia Gold Council Seeks OK On Tax Change

The Council, together with the Association of Mining & Exploration Companies, has been lobbying the federal government for the past 18 months to emulate Canada in allowing full tax deductibility for exploration expenses incurred by companies.

Global Mineral Exploration At 20-Year Low

Exploration for gold, of which Australia is the world's third-largest producing country, fell 11% in unadjusted terms in the third quarter to A$86.4 million from A$96.8 million in the second quarter

Global mineral exploration is at a 20-year low, with the gold sector being the hardest-hit, she said.

And given the five-year lead time between mined exploration and development, there won't be enough new mines to replace the lost production once those currently in operation close, she said.

Gold Now In Local Investors' Radar Screen

Meanwhile, she projected gold bullion to stay in the US$290-US$300/oz level this year with the potential to exceed US$300/oz again.

"My opinion is that Newmont's purchase price has galvanized the institutional sit up and take notice of the gold sector," particularly as Newmont's bid doubled what Normandy was valued at, she said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:27:48 02/27/02 Wed

AngloGold said bidding for Boddington

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:24:24 02/27/02 Wed

Investment Underpins Global Gold Demand

The World Gold Council Tuesday said that increased political and financial uncertainty led to a global rise in personal demand for gold investment products during the fourth quarter of last year.

According to the council's quarterly survey of gold demand trends, together with lower interest rates, the rise in gold demand made purchases of gold more attractive for small investors and investment was 8 percent higher in the fourth quarter of 2001 than a year earlier.

From GATA -- Sharefin, 19:18:33 02/27/02 Wed

The BIG Money Is Moving Into Gold

The gold action today was very subdued. Last night J.P. Morgan Chase stopped gold from trading $300 by selling 2000 contracts at $299.50 to a fund. The Gold Cartel is still at it. However, they are now both desperate and pathetic. I say that because they have been found out. The gold scam is surfacing in the investment world and the big money hedge fund crowd is ready to take them on because they now realize how vulnerable they are. These big money folk also realize The Gold Cartel is running out of ammo and losing control of their price-fixing operations.

As I have been saying for weeks, the GATA story is spreading all over the world. For example, a very highly regarded New York hedge fund manager took several phone calls today from other hedge funds with the same kind of query, "what is this I hear about a massive gold short position in the banks."

What I am passing on to the Café is not idle gossip or trivial. It is about as important a bit of information as I will ever pass on. What is happening is the real big money boys are assigning one of their analyst types, or junior people in the firm, to read all they can about the gold situation at, and The analyst is then to report back to the senior traders who are pulling the investment triggers.

Well, after doing his or her homework, the analyst is reporting back that the GATA camp is right. These big money guys now realize they can shift funds into gold with a minimal downside and an upside of many hundreds of dollars per ounce. What a trade that is? They also know that the gold shorts are trapped. They cannot get out except at hundreds of dollars per ounce higher.

One by one they are putting on gold positions and will continue to do so. This new buying, coupled with the ferocious Japanese buying, spells doom for The Gold Cartel crooks. They are going to get one heckuva beating.


To further emphasize this significant point, I pass on this email from a fellow Café member:

I thought this board would be interested in this e-mail I received from a good friend who is a senior metals trader in New York...he wrote the following:

"As you can see by the action in gold today and during the past few weeks, what the conspiracy theorists (who the professional metals traders hate) have been saying for a long time is basically true. The only difference is that now there are fundamental forces at work that are not only outing everything, but are overwhelming the concerted efforts of several major players to maintain the status quo.

"Make no mistake about it: there is a huge amount at stake here. You can bet that there are several major sell-side players out there basically betting the farm that spot gold will not hold the $300 level with any strength. And $320? You will begin to see some panic as some very large positions will HAVE to be unwound.

"They will have no choice, as their risk departments will force them to do so. Many of these positions are so large and so embedded that you could see a serious melt-up with some limit-up type moves. This is why you see such a huge effort to stop these advances in spot gold. If you think there's no ulterior reason why pundits show up on CNBC and other media on big up days for gold trying to poo-poo these moves, you are naive. Everyone on the large desks knows what's going on and how much is at stake.

"What's changed is their ability to control it...and that includes our Fed and the ECB's. The Bundesbank "announcement" was a good example of this...expect to see more as things spiral out of control. You can bet that many of my friends and co-workers have been quietly buying the miners for their own accounts, knowing the dynamics they see at work under the surface each day. Based on what I am seeing, we're likely entering a period in which the only losers will be those who sell too early, or sell based on past patterns of weakness. From my vantage point, I think things are going to get VERY interesting."

'I thought the board would want to read that. Personal disclosure: I own DROOY and KGC."



Doggone that sounds like me. I swear I did not write it.

Gold quietly set back on Comex and closed right above strong technical support at $296. The quiet before the storm. All dips ought to be bought. Gold can explode at any time.

John Brimelow:

"Indian ex duty premiums: AM $4.23, PM $1.25, with world gold at $297.60 and $298.70. Below legal import point. The Indians dislike spikes.

"Rather a heavy day on Tocom. $US gold edged higher on heavy volume - equivalent to 55,800 Comex contracts, more than double Tuesday (Comex itself traded 37,227 contracts yesterday). Tocom open interest actually declined, by 217,000 ozs, although Warburg and Mitsui variously estimate the public added another 100-130,000 ozs. With mounting disgruntlement over the government's ineffectual reflation package, and a notable phase of weakness in the yen after Japan had closed, there seem a fair chance of further leadership from this quarter in coming days.

"The Nihon Kezai Shimbun responded to public interest today by publishing another story about buying of bullion items by the public. It quotes officials of Tanaka Kikinoku Kogyo (which is the leading manufacturer and distributor of gold investment products) as saying:

"Wealthy consumers are funneling 5-10% of their assets into the precious metal, seeing yields on bank deposits, stocks and real estate as insufficient to protect their fortunes amid the prolonged economic slowdown.."

"which if taken very far would be extremely dramatic news for gold indeed.

"Clearly a large new buyer took a position yesterday in New York hours, greatly alarming the dealers. "Every professional was seen as a buyer" remarks UBS Warburg. Standard London notes the move "seems to have taken a few people by surprise". Open Interest only rose by 381 contracts, suggesting a good deal of short covering. The dealer/commentators seem quite impressed by the 'quality' of the buying. UBS muses:

"Large scale investment (as opposed to speculative) demand for gold has the potential, if it continues at recent rates, to see gold outperform our forecast average of US$296/oz for 2002...".


From the Far Side -- Sharefin, 19:15:02 02/27/02 Wed

(companionmonkey) Feb 27, 13:15
Pardon my redneck French, but HELL YES!
ron paul/cnbc europe
by: benovic2000 02/27/02 12:53 pm
Msg: 108289 of 108302

here in europe we were not cut off but
Greenspan did not even pronounce the word gold.
He was a coward and a hypocrit.He basically avoided a direct answer but eventually improvised something of an answer by saying that policies or strategies of banks(central banks)cannot be discussed publicly.
He was stuttering a lot and visibly didn't like it .
PS imho this sort of "incidents" will happen more frequently in the future.He remained an arrogant person and this will teach him what is awaiting him.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:08:34 02/27/02 Wed

Germans and Japanese in Tug of War over Gold.

Assuming that there are no subtle nuances in the translation, what Ernst Welteke the president of the Bundebank in Germany actually said last week was, " We have significant gold reserves in the Bundesbank, and of course we are happy if the gold price rises. That shows you should not sell gold at the wrong time. At the moment there is an agreement between the central banks limiting the price of gold. That is sensible, since if we all sold central bank gold the price would plummet. That would not be sensible. But I could imagine that we might slowly sell some of this gold and reinvest in assets that pay interest. We should not sell the gold reserves to pay off federal debt or finance new spending. At best we should use the interest to reduce the debt."

Who jogged his elbow to make this innocuous, but somewhat Teutonic remark is anyone's guess. Minews is not very enamoured of conspiracy theories, but it is a strange coincidence that he made it, à propos de rien (sorry about the French), just when gold was powering through the US$300/oz mark. Maybe someone at the US Treasury or the ECB gave him a nudge. ' It would be a disaster, would it not, if investors saw through paper currencies for that they are - just a myriad of IOUs from ephemeral governments. Put a bit of pressure on gold, Ernst.'

Despite the fact that the German central bank cannot sell gold in any quantity until 2004 under the Washington Accord, it had the desired effect and gold came back to the low US$290s/oz. The Japanese must have been delighted as they have lost faith in their banking system as well as in Mr Koizumi's ability to reform it and are buying gold like crazy. And this is not just theorising Richard Russell who publishes the much respected Dow Theory Letter received the following e-mail just the week before Herr Welteke gave us the benefit of his thoughts.

"I have been trading commodity futures in Tokyo for over 15 years going back to the bubble days of the 80s. Last week the Tokyo gold market saw record volumes on Thursday February 7th and Friday February 8th. Volume on Thursday was a daily record volume of 340,676 contracts which equates to 10.8 million ounces or more than Newmont (now which includes Franco Nevada and Normandy) produces in a whole year. That was followed by a similar volume on Friday. Both days saw volumes larger than the entire open interest. I have never seen anything like this. Open interest from Wednesday to Friday increased by 10%.

I had dinner with two Japanese friend who were visiting...One chap owns 10 buildings in Tokyo and is quite well off. He recently bought 50 kilograms (approx 1,750 ounces) of physical gold bullion. Cost him about yen equivalent of US$520,000 for the purchase. He and his wife hauled the booty over to his safe deposit box at his bank in boxes. He is convinced that gold will go over US$ 1,000 in the future. A friend of his also recently purchased about yen equivalent of US$ 1 Million in bullion. The Japanese are getting seriously concerned about the situation there."

Figure this: The Japanese have been saving for the last 50 years and now have about 11 Trillion dollars in savings. That's TRILLION with a T. They are still saving even in their decade long depression. Let's say the Japanese are concerned enough to take 1% of that which is $110 BILLION and put it into the Gold bullion or Gold share market. Capitalization of all the gold mining companies in the world is estimated at US$35 to US$40 billion."

There is little to add, except that it would appear that the bankers of Germany and the citizens of Japan are involved in a tug- of- war over gold. And while this goes on it is comforting to be told by Chris Thompson, the chairman of Gold Fields, that the gold market is more resilient to central bank sales than before. "We're in a business of long winters and short summers and this looks like the beginning of a new spring," Chris Thompson, said at a presentation on his company in London last week. He went on to claim that diminishing mine supplies and the gold price's recent break through a dismal long-term downtrend to two-year highs would give pause to central bankers considering offloading their stocks.

"In a falling gold market the political decision to sell gold, particularly when the alternative is the U.S. dollar that might rise and give interest, is an easy decision to make. But in a rising gold's a tough decision and it will be interesting to see if the Bundesbank will actually do anything about it in two years time," Thomson concluded.

Gold Production -- Sharefin, 19:03:40 02/27/02 Wed

S.Africa gold output near 1953 low, seen steadier

Gold production slipped to 393,254 kg from 427,981 kg in 2000, the lowest since 1953's 371,395 kg, the Chamber's Chief Economist, Roger Baxter, said in a statement.

``The decline in production is attributed to an 8.4 percent fall in the average grade to 4.13 grams per tonne, and the exhaustion of ore in certain older mine shafts,'' he said.

fcx -- Cyclist, 10:14:55 02/27/02 Wed

a buy at 14,in step with weekly gold cycle,looking for 18/20

SWC -- Cyclist, 10:03:42 02/27/02 Wed

timing 18 tomorrow at the close

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:20:34 02/27/02 Wed

Golds run hard on bullion strength

Gold shares on the Australian and New York Stock exchanges have a had a rollicking twelve hours after bullion kicked up to a $297.50 close in New York last night.
The Australian gold board followed the strong lead set by gold equities in New York last night. By lunch time in Sydney, the gold index had climbed 2.5 percent with both major producers and juniors gaining momentum against the backdrop of the bourse's All Ordinaries index which was 0.6 percent down.

South African domiciled producers showed the biggest gains on the day in the Australian market, albeit on thin volume. AngloGold rose 6.4 percent to A$9.15 and Durban Roodepoort Deep was up 7.29 percent to A$5.15.

Of the pure Australian golds, Normandy showed its status as a proxy for new owner Newmont, adding 4.05 percent to A$2.31. Auriongold, the soon-to-be number one producer rose 3.75 percent o A$2.77.

Newcrest racked up gains of 3.98 percent to A$4.78 and Lihir Gold recovered from a dip earlier in the week with a 2.05 percent increase to A$1.49.

Gold shares were far and away the top performers in New York as both the Nasdaq and Dow Jones Indices ended the day marginally down. Once again, the South Africans showed their leverage to bullion strength. Unhedged producers were the flavour of the day, with Harmony Gold [NYSE:HGMCY] gaining an impressive 11.23 percent to $10.30 a share. Gold Fields [NYSE:GOLD], Harmony's larger unhedged rival, scored an 8.51 percent rise to $8.80.

AngloGold was 5.65 percent stronger at $23.74 and marginal producer Durban Roodepoort Deep [NYSE:DROOY] gained 6.77 percent to $2.68.

The North Americans were not far behind. Placer Dome was the pick of the bunch, registering a 5.42 percent gain to close at $12.25. Unhedged Newmont ended the day 5.22 percent to the good at $24.61, while hedged rival Barrick was 4.02 percent stronger $18.65.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:35:18 02/27/02 Wed

Gold Up On Short Covering From Japan

Spot gold rose Wednesday in Asia, thanks to short covering by Japanese traders and speculators, traders said.

The covering was triggered by a $5 spike in New York as well as a weaker yen against the U.S. dollar, they said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:34:02 02/27/02 Wed

INTERVIEW: Dresdner Doubts Gold's Ability To Hold Gains

Sentiment in the gold bullion market may have turned
bullish, but whether it would sustain a trading range above US$300 a troy ounce hinges on the strength of the U.S. dollar, a senior bullion bank dealer at Dresdner Bank Australia said Wednesday.

Lee, however, acknowledged that many factors have led to a sea-change in the sentiment for gold, particularly as investors and fund managers look for an alternative vehicle to park their funds in the midst of flat bonds, equities and currency markets.

"I'm not a bull on gold...unless you can write me a case that tells me the U.S. dollar is going to be weak from here onwards," Paul Lee, director of precious metals group at the bank, told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Tuesday.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:30:33 02/27/02 Wed

Crystallex announces highest gold production since 1995

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:28:53 02/27/02 Wed

Gold pushes JSE higher
Johannesburg - Gains in gold stocks pushed the JSE Securities Exchange higher in early trade on Wednesday after the bullion price rallied in New York, dealers said.

Gold opened higher in a flurry of catch-up and short covering trade in Asia on Wednesday and following New York's options' expiry-led rally overnight.

The all-share index gained 0.49% or 52.7 points to 10887.9 by 09:32, lifted by strong buying in the world's largest gold producer AngloGold and peer Gold Fields. The gold index was 4.58% higher.

"Gold stocks are stronger on the back of a firmer gold price, and some resources are looking good as well... The rest of the market is quiet ahead of the producer inflation data release," a trader said.

Spot gold was trading at $297.50, unchanged from New York's close, and from London's late fix of $294.20.

AngloGold climbed 3.5% or R18 to R532, and Gold Fields jumped 5.5% or 520c to R99.

Harmony Gold surged 7% or 760c to R116.80.

Gold -- Sharefin, 01:27:52 02/27/02 Wed

JSE soars on gold index

The gold index gave the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) a positive jump at the start of trading on Wednesday, soaring nearly 5% during the first few minutes.

"The gold index is really flying this morning on the back of the strong gold price and this cheer has spilt over into the resource sector due to the weighting of gold stocks there," one dealer said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 20:35:56 02/26/02 Tue

Vietnam Becomes One of Southeast Asia's Biggest Gold Consumers

Vietnam consumed 73 tons of gold in 2001, 13 tons more than in 2000, according to a report of Vietnam's official news agency VNA on Tuesday.

With its year-on-year increase of 22 percent, Vietnam registered the highest gold consumption growth and became one of the biggest gold consumers in Southeast Asia last year, the report said.

According to the World Gold Council, Thailand consumed 69.3 tons of gold (a year-on-year increase of three percent); Indonesia, 108 tons (a year-on-year increase of one percent); and Malaysia, 22.7 tons (a year-on-year increase of 8 percent). Singapore's consumption showed a slight increase to 12.2 tons.

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:16:12 02/26/02 Tue

Gold Gains Seen Based On Japan

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:13:44 02/26/02 Tue

Call option rumours light gold fuse

The COMEX April gold contract closed at $298.20 an ounce, a $5.3 gain over the opening price as traders tried to price in a number of factors including speculation that America is on the verge of launching an attack on Iraq, the Bank of England's final auction, US interest rates and investor activity.

Gold bugs were excited by news filtering across electronic networks that an unknown investor had taken a bet on the gold price with a "significant" quantity of short-dated COMEX call options with strike prices at $300 an $310 an ounce. The information could not be verified independently although Reuters carried similar information today.

The call options, whether rumour or fact, are important in the context of next Tuesday's final gold auction by the Bank of England. The previous auction was subject to a sting operation that created a buying vacuum before the hammer dropped.

Lenny's Daily Commentary -- Sharefin, 18:10:01 02/26/02 Tue


The gold market has been the hotbed of news and rumor the last two days, some bullish, some bearish and some quite unbelievable. And yet, here we stand, with prices up quite sharply breaking through technical and price resistance levels some analysts thought impossible just a few days ago. The bearish news has included an admission by Newmont Mining, that it would not repurchase forward sales entered into by Normandy, its latest acquisition in Australia. Originally, officials of Newmont spoke of buying back such derivative positions as quickly as possible. Now, not surprisingly with gold well in excess of $290 per ounce, they have acquiesced and now only plan to deliver into such forward sales as they become due. Another stormy cloud hanging over gold has been the final auction of 20 tons of gold by the Bank of England coming on March 5th. The gold market has historically fallen in value in front of this auction allowing shorts to cover at the auction and pocket significant profits. The other negative has been over-the-counter expiration of gold options going off today, which usually dampens both volatility and interest in the market.

The bullish influences have been the purchase by two Bullion Banks of up to 1 Million ounces of very short-term call options in gold at strikes of $300 and $310. Such purchases are rather unprecedented, as these banks tend to be sellers of such, and their turn-around was the talk of the trade. Another bullish influence was the reiteration of the rumor that American troops were on the ground in Iraq, quickly denied by the U.S. military. This rumor was of very fleeting importance. But, the real reason behind today's sharp rally was the "flight to quality." As news emerged that the upcoming announcement by the government of Japan in regards to their actions to solve their continuing economic travails, it became clear that, AGAIN, the Japanese would do nothing of substance. Buy orders piled onto the floor in exchanges in wave after wave of buying, mostly emanating from overseas. The USD shot up in value and gold was up over $5.00 on the day. The fear, and now the factual proof, that the Japanese government would continue their cultural affinity to avoid facing up to problems shot gold and the USD much higher. The psychology of the market now speaks of much higher prices to come.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:42:42 02/26/02 Tue

Gold and GG

Yesterday's powerful rally left our too-cautious, 289.30 bid in the dust. Now, applying a simple A-B-C-D analysis (where A=278.40, B=309.40, C=290.50) yields a pivot price of 306.00 and a minimum target of 321.50.

The implication is that the April contract will be on its way to 321.50 if it can close above 306 or trade more than 0.60 (or so) above it intraday.

Above 321.50, there is very little to stop this vehicle from running all the way to 380-400 --just one key high at 336 that was made in October 1999.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:38:47 02/26/02 Tue

NY gold up amid options focus at noon

COMEX April gold at 1202 EST up $3.50 at $296.40 an ounce, off the high of its $291.60-$297.30 range. Gold jumps after OTC options expired in London, while floor buzzed about a purchase last week of short-term COMEX call options in large size, struck at $300 and $310. Tone remains bullish after bounce off $290 area last week. But a sizable long is still overhead. Market loath to move too far either way before Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan testifies on the economy before the U.S. Congress Wednesday and before the UK holds its last gold auction next Tuesday. Estimated volume a brisk 23,000 lots at noon.

March silver up 4.7 cents at $4.415 an ounce, trading $4.35-$4.44. Volume a heavy 20,000 lots, but dealers say silver simply tracking gold.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:35:42 02/26/02 Tue

Newmont puts off downsizing

Newmont Mining has ruled out making any hasty decisions on the assets of the newly-acquired Normandy Mining and says any possible downsizing of the target's Adelaide head office is unlikely before the end of next month.

Fresh from securing control of Normandy - there were unconfirmed reports last night that the US suitor had moved past the 90 per cent level of acceptances - Newmont said its moves to generate more than $75 million in first-year cost savings and synergy benefits were gathering momentum.

But senior vice-president and chief financial officer, Mr Bruce Hansen, ruled out any hasty action, saying that although Newmont was reviewing Normandy's non-core and overseas assets, no divestment decisions had been made.

Newmont has committed to the Australian Magnesium Corporation and said it would not sell the Golden Grove project given the depressed zinc price.

Normandy's 9.7 per cent stake in Lihir Gold, worth $170 million, is viewed as surplus but Mr Hansen said Newmont was yet to decide whether to exit the Papua New Guinea miner's share register.

Lihir said yesterday that it was profitable again, earning $US42.8 million ($83.4 million) for 2001.

"We don't feel like we have a gun to our head, we haven't made a determination of whether we are going to be a buyer [of Lihir] or whether we are not going to be a shareholder," Mr Hansen said.

He also said the unhedged Newmont would let Normandy's 8 million-ounce hedge book unwind naturally after deciding that "if it's under water, we are not going to put cash into it, we will simply deliver".

Brokers said his comments contributed to Newmont's chess depository interest securities falling on their first day of trade yesterday. The CDIs closed at $4.57 after opening at $4.65.

Newmont could find out as early as next month whether its CDIs, issued to Normandy shareholders as part of the takeover consideration, will be included in the S&P-ASX200 index.

Newmont is also yet to hold talks with AngloGold and Newcrest Mining about the future of the Boddington expansion project, while Mr Hansen said talks with its Super Pit co-owner Barrick Gold Corp about streamlining the operational structure were only preliminary.

Meanwhile, the chief executive of Lihir, Mr Alan Roberts, said he expected gold output and mining costs this year to be in line with 2001 levels.

Lihir produced 647,942 ounces last year, and expects annual output to continue above 600,000oz for the next three years. Production is then expected to increase to between 700,000 ounces and 800,000 ounces between 2005 and 2008..

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:33:43 02/26/02 Tue

India's gold jewellery rip-off

Most gold jewellery advertised in India as 22-carat is of a lesser quality, a survey by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has revealed.
The BIS found over 80% of the shops surveyed were passing off anything between 13.5 and 18 carats as 22-carat gold.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:32:21 02/26/02 Tue

Lihir hedge - boon or bane for predator?

As takeover rumours continue to swirl around Papua New Guinea miner Lihir Gold [ASX:LHG], analysts are zeroing in on the factors expected to boost the company's asking price. First on the list is Lihir's burgeoning reserve base and a growing expectation that production will soon be lifted to above a million ounces a year. On the flip side, some are expecting Lihir's 2.5-million-ounce hedge book and aggressive forward-selling policy to scare off prospective buyers which are scaling back their own hedges.
Only last month Lihir reported a 3 million ounce reserve upgrade to 15 million ounces and one Sydney-based gold analyst says he expects another 5 million ounces to be added to the reserve category by mid-year. Rod Antal, a spokesman for Lihir, said the current drilling programme would continue only within the company's 34-million-ounce resource area. He said an updated reserve statement would be issued around the middle of the year but would give no detail on what the substance of the report was likely to be.

While the group continues racking up more reserve ounces, expectation is also running high that a substantial production increase to a million ounces a year is on the cards.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:30:47 02/26/02 Tue

HM Government Gold Auction Programme

The Bank of England today announces the auction on behalf of Her Majesty's Treasury of approximately 20 tonnes of gold. The auction, which will be on a single, or uniform, price basis, will take place on Tuesday 5 March 2002. A copy of the auction announcement notice published by the Bank of England is attached.

Note for Editors

On 7 March 2001, HM Treasury announced that, on behalf of HM Treasury, the Bank of England would sell approximately 120 tonnes of gold from the Exchange Equalisation Account in a programme of six auctions of around 20 tonnes each in the financial year 2001/2002 on the terms and conditions set out in an Information Memorandum which was published on 7 March 2001. This is the final auction in this programme of six. This sale will bring to an end the programme to restructure the United Kingdom's official reserves that was announced by HM Treasury on 7 May 1999.

From the Far Side -- Sharefin, 17:19:41 02/26/02 Tue

(Gold_Lunatic) Feb 26, 18:33

I confess I neither believe nor disbelieve the theory of ASTROLOGY. The reason I am agnostic about the analysis of heavenly bodies (stars) is simply that I have never studied its rationale and practice. Perhaps, it is because I am too pragmatic to weigh and consider the tenets of ASTROLOGY. It is hard for me to believe the stars can influence events and the lives of people.

In all fairness on the other hand, I must recognize certain phases of the moon have indisputable effects upon certain aspects of nature and even the human mind and body.

Any high-school science major knows moon phases exert substantial forces upon ocean tides. It determines when tides are rising or falling. By the same token we know the human body is composed of about 75-80% WATER. Therefore, if the moon has marked effect upon immense oceans, it is conceivable to me lunar phases can affect the fluids in our bodies. Curiously, the menstrual period of women has approximately the same time length of a lunar cycle (about 30 days).

However, the most astounding evidence of the lunar affect on humans is its influence upon the mind or psyche. Many reports have been published in professional journals, testifying that hospital emergency rooms tend to dramatically fill and overflow during periods of the full moon. Moreover, many law-enforcement officers who I have interviewed corroborate the evidence that the rate of violent crimes accelerates during the full moon.

All this circumstantial evidence obliges me to begin thinking the moon may indeed have a material effect upon the "waters" within our bodies - which in turn influences our thinking patterns… and often in the extreme.

Evidence of Lunar Effects in the Gold Market

As an objective long-term successful investor, I am always skeptical… and I do my due diligence. In this case I looked at a number of significant gold bull runs of recent years - and time matched them against the appearance of the full moon. Frankly, the results were startling.

During the last 20 years there are a number of remarkable occurrences of the Full Moon exactly marking ( +/- 2 days ) an important bottom OR top in gold. It may be statistical coincidence or NOT - the math is beyond the realm of my competence. Consequently, I ask myself if this is just curious coincidence.



On the day of the Full Moon, August 7, 1979, CASH GOLD registered an important low at $285. A little over five months later CASH GOLD REACHED AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $850. Gold zoomed 198%. And although the actual record high was January 20, 1980, Gold really began the 20-year bear market on February 1, 1980 - the day of the Full Moon!

If that doesn't grab your attention, try this:

On March 8, 1993 - the day of the Full Moon - Cash Gold finally bottomed after a long bear market in precious metals. The registered low that day was $343. During the next five months Cash Gold finally peaked at $426 - PRECISELY ON THE DAY OF THE FULL MOON, August 2, 1993. Lunar Gold rose 24% in the period!

Although to a considerably less extent, there were other “Full Moon Rallies” on 5/6/93, 6/4/93, 7/3/93, 8/21/94 and 12/7/95. The average gold price increase of these Gold Lunatic Rallies was 5.8% - and lasted on average 23 days to reach its zenith.

The Gold Lunar review brings us to September 25, 1999…the day of the Full Moon. It was a Saturday with all markets closed. On Sunday, it was announced in Washington that 15 European Central Banks made decided to quit the Gold Cabal movement. And once the first rays of the sun hit Tokyo on Monday morning, GOLD SOARED LIMIT UP… followed by near like action in New York - hours later. During the next seven trading days, the world watched in utter awe, while gold make the greatest surge in over 15 years - zooming more than 25%.

There you have it - EIGHT Gold Lunatic Rallies coinciding with the Full Moon. Three gargantuan and five mini-gold rallies. Furthermore, we will be blessed with another Full Moon. So, all "lunatics" nervously await possible moon ACTION ON GOLD, because the moon's "pull" already started on Wall Street.

Wouldn't that be eerie?

Is all this pure coincidence, or does the moon indeed have an effect upon gold at important reversal points… I still am not sure.

What do you think?

If gold soared today $5 in NY, how will the craze affect it in the Tokio tonight which already is already in the shine of silvery full-moon.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:10:29 02/26/02 Tue

Savant Crawford reads cosmic tea leaves

Crawford also has made good calls on individual stock picks. He recommended investors buy into gold mining stocks such as Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM) in April 2001 -- the stock rose from about $16 to nearly $24. The pundit is bullish on the shiny metal itself, believing its long-term bearish cycles have turned and will be up for years.

Now Crawford is a market grizzly of the extreme kind. He warns investors the bear market ravaging Wall Street is here to stay for years. That's partly due to the unprecedented bull run in the 1980s and 1990s and stocks are likely to be pushed to bear market P-E ratios, he said.
The market is ready for a fall near the quarter's end, Crawford said. The reasons: it marks the fiscal year's end in Japan, which many see as teetering on the edge of financial disaster, and the stars are not aligning well.
"We PREDICT some kind of MELTDOWN as we approach the quarter's end, March 27-31!," Crawford wrote in a recent newsletter. "Mars conjoins the Saturn opposing Pluto while Mercury squares them all, completing a very dangerous T-Square."

April Gold -- Cyclist, 16:37:22 02/26/02 Tue

had its break out today at 297 and looking for March 12
as a top with a 318 price tag.

Gold -- Sharefin, 04:00:25 02/26/02 Tue

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:56:07 02/26/02 Tue

Celtic Resources - first gold pour

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:54:45 02/26/02 Tue

Bundesbank Will Not Sell Gold Until 2004

The German government has said it cannot sell the Bundesbank's gold reserves before an agreement expires in 2004 and that it has no plans to use the revenue from gold sales to plug the country's budget deficit.
“A sale of gold reserves is presently not possible” because the “European Central Bank and 14 other national central banks have agreed a moratorium that is valid until 2004,” the government said in a statement e-mailed to news organizations.
The gold price has fallen by over 30 percent since 1996 as investors including central banks decide that they no longer need to hold it as a hedge against inflation and instability. The 1999 accord that limited central bank's from selling the metal pulled the commodity back from a 20-year low of around $250 an ounce to an average of $274.96 over the past year.
The so-called Washington accord limits European central banks to selling 400 tons of gold a year. Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said last week that he “could imagine that we slowly sell” some of the bank's gold reserves. His comments sent gold prices down as much as 2 percent.

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:51:43 02/26/02 Tue

Glamis Gold reports record gold production and results for 2001

Glamis Gold Ltd. is pleased to announce financial and operating results for the fourth quarter 2001 and the year. 2001 saw the Company return to profitability accompanied by a 140% appreciation of its share price, the best of all North American gold producers. Highlights for the year include:

* Gold production of 230,065 - a new record.

* Total cash cost of $172 per gold ounce.

* Earnings of $0.07 per share.

* Commercial production announced at San Martin Mine; expansion completed mid-year; and 114,216 ounces of gold produced at a total cash cost of $120 per ounce.

* Three-fold increase in Marigold Mine reserves; approved feasibility study to more than double production; and completed financing to build the project.

* Ended the year with $45.9 million in cash and a debt-free balance sheet.

* 100% unhedged at year-end.

The Gold Dollar -- Sharefin, 03:45:22 02/26/02 Tue

The Gold Dollar

Gold -- Sharefin, 20:24:26 02/25/02 Mon

'Gold more resilient against official sales'

The gold market is more resilient to central bank sales than before, despite Germany hinting that it may sell some reserves, the chairperson of South Africa's Gold Fields said.
“We are in a business of long winters and short summers and this looks like the beginning of a new spring,” Chris Thompson, told an analysts' briefing.

“In a falling gold market the political decision to sell gold, particularly when the alternative is the US dollar that might rise and give interest, it is an easy decision to make.” “But in a rising gold market it is a tough decision for the banks to make and it will be interesting to see if the Bundesbank will do that,” Thomson added.

Gold -- Sharefin, 20:06:22 02/25/02 Mon

Glittering rally sets world's goldbugs abuzz AROUND THE MARKETS

The shudder that went through the gold market last week hasn't swept the glitter out of the goldbugs' eyes.
In the past few weeks, gold prices have shot up, passing $300 an ounce for the first time in two years and prompting fresh proclamations of a new era for the long-beleaguered precious metal. But then along came Ernst Welteke, president of the Bundesbank and gold-rally party-pooper, who suggested Wednesday that the German government might start gradually unloading gold in favor of interest- bearing investments. The comment shaved several dollars off the price and elicited a clarification from the central bank: There would be no sales of Germany's gold holdings in the near future.

The Bundesbank's reversal highlights one of the many reasons that the goldbugs are all aflutter. After prices languished for years, 15 European central banks including the Bundesbank agreed in 1999 to limit annual sales of gold through 2004.

Other factors are now brightening gold's luster and drawing hedge funds and speculators into the market.

Fund interest "What we're seeing is that the funds are taking massive long positions," said Alan Williamson, head of commodities research at HSBC Investment Bank in London. The funds are encouraged by a drop in the gold supply caused by a slide in mining output, a global stock-market slump that is sending investors in search of new assets, and widespread financial uncertainty.

"Traders used Welteke's comments as a catalyst for a long- anticipated sell-off," Williamson said. "But the way we see it is, if gold doesn't rally over the next six months, it's hard to envision when it will rally. All the stars are in alignment."

Marc Faber, a longtime contrarian and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report in Hong Kong, contends that the Enron scandal could lead investors to shun financial assets in favor of hard assets such as real estate and commodities.

"If Enron proves to be just the tip of the iceberg, gold could provide the kind of leadership it had in the 1970s when it rose from $35 an ounce to $850," Faber says in his latest report.

Japanese buyers When the financial world teeters, gold traditionally becomes the investment of last resort. Japanese investors, who have seen the value of their stock holdings wither, are piling into gold. In the last quarter of 2001, Japanese purchases of gold shot up 54 percent, according to the World Gold Council.

Faber argues that Japanese buying could become a major force in the gold rally. He says that Japan, which has a population of 120 million and a per-capita gross domestic product of more than $35,000, imports about 100 tons of gold a year. By comparison, India, with a population of 1 billion but a per-capita GDP of only about $300, imports nearly 900 tons a year.

Gold bugs will be watching closely this week for signs that the rally is for real. After the recent sharp climb, they worry that if gold prices slip too far too fast, the retreat could trim enthusiasm. Williamson said that if the price holds at around $290 and moves back toward the $300 level, "then the sell-off would have been a very positive pullback."

But even if the price slides below $290, Williamson isn't intending to shed his gold-bug credentials. "If the price dips back to $285, that probably just means the rally would be slower than otherwise," he said.

From GATA -- Sharefin, 20:04:36 02/25/02 Mon

After Bundesbank Gold Story, DEUTSCHE BANK TURNS BIG BUYER!

A fierce battle was waged the last 24 hours between gold bulls and bears right above $290 spot, which has been a key technical level for many years. As reported recently and often, The Gold Cartel has thrust gold back every time that level has been breached to the upside for 3 1/2 years now.

Of special interest this time is that the specs are mostly long below $290. If the cabal wins again (taking gold below $290 on a close basis), many of these black box tech specs will turn sellers and prolong the inevitable gold market bull move.

Gunning for the specs, the Gold Cartel forces were loaded for bear today and were close to winning the day when Deutsche Bank showed up as a big buyer right above $290. Word to me was they could not buy enough at their price levels in the futures pits so they called upstairs and began buying in the physical market.

This may be MOST significant. Deutsche Bank is named in Reg Howe's Complaint and I used to hear about them all the time on the sell side along with Goldman Sachs and Chase. See this reading from Reg Howe's lawsuit:

"On May 7, 1999, just as gold threatened to surge over $300/ounce in response to new doubts whether the proposed IMF gold sales would go forward, the British announced that the Bank of England, on behalf of the Exchange Equalisation Account in the British Treasury, would sell 415 tonnes of gold in a series of public auctions. Although this announcement came with no warning and was completely unexpected by most, the previous evening Bill Murphy of GATA reported in his Midas column at Le Metropole Cafe: "Deutsche Bank's bullion desk is calling their clients saying that the gold market is stopping at $290."

Gold -- Sharefin, 20:01:50 02/25/02 Mon


Gold -- Sharefin, 07:58:26 02/25/02 Mon

Gold producers divided on hedging

In any other industry, the closing out of a small hedge position would attract little interest. It would not be considered worth a public announcement, nor would it push up a company's share price. Only in the gold industry is hedging such a politically charged issue.

When Gold Fields, South Africa's second largest gold producer, closed out its only hedge, 160,000 ounces of forward sales at the Tarkwa mine, Chris Thompson, chairman, told the market: "Gold Fields is now totally unhedged, which is an affirmation of our policy."

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:55:53 02/25/02 Mon

Here's the links that were posted.

The Other Bubble

Gold given April lift-off date by technical analyst

When Did the Gold Price Manipulation Begin?

Sharefin - my moniker -- Sharefin, 07:44:19 02/25/02 Mon

Some ass is posting on Kitco using my moniker.
Shame he hasn't got more class.

He's posting good links but rest assured it's not me.

Nationalist Weekly Market Commentary -- Sharefin, 06:45:29 02/25/02 Mon

Profiting from the NASDAQ mania

We all know how the central banks have been selling gold for the past 8 years. They now have considerably less than they started with. Indeed, if they keep selling the same amount, then the sales become ever larger percentages of what they have left.

At the same time, we know that all nations have abandoned the gold standard, so that all currencies are utterly imaginary. And it is now much easier for developed nations to stabilize their imaginary units in relation to the imaginary dollar than it was to defend that unit against an attack on a fairly modest gold reserve standing behind it in the old days. The developing countries which are subject to tidal waves of hot foreign capital (created by the inflationary bias of the system of imaginary currencies) moving into and out of their countries have a much tougher time.

We also know that Japan is beginning to walk away from its social committments in the face of the pressures brought on by low birth rates and an aging population. They have cancelled deposit insurance on savings above $75,000 worth of yen, causing many Japanese to start purchasing gold.

Of course, the entire G-8 as the problem of falling birth rates and aging populations- it is just that Japan is a little ahead of the rest of us. So suppose the trend continues, and people throughout the G-8 start buying gold, in response to one crisis after another.

Argentina freezes bank deposits. Japan cuts deposit insurance to lower the cost of cleaning up insolvent banks, as the U.S. securities markets create "money" in the form of money market funds full of securitized receivables from God knows who insured by companies levered 150 to one, while our imperial government erases the imaginary units of all who oppose its ideology of an homogenized, atomized and de-racinated humanity - confiscations which are frightfully easy and impossible to defend against since the "money" exists only in some computer memory bank from which it can be erased by some clerk operating from a distant terminal.

Gold cannot be erased and siezures are terribly visible and upsetting to the neighbors, requiring first that the imperial government find out where your gold is, and then conduct a big messy raid a la Elian Gonzalez to grab it.

Suppose people finally begin using gold and promises of gold in exchanges, at the same time that the central banks are running out of supplies to sell.

Over long time periods - ten to twenty years - imaginary currencies and central bank gold sales seem like a very risky business. A critical mass of citizens can use that gold to bypass the imaginary money financial system, and then the government is left with no ability to command the productive resources of its subjects.

What will they use, at that point, to purchase the gold they need to restore confidence?

These national governments have legal tender laws requiring that they accept their imaginary units in satisfaction of tax liabilities.

We all know that they will have to confiscate gold by demanding that taxes be paid in gold rather than in imaginary dollars. Of course, any attempt to tax or confiscate gold will only deepen the crisis of confidence while requiring highly intrusive, visible and labor intensive efforts to re-assert central authority.

For the past 150 years, basic industry and manufacturing has generated the "surplus" that governments have taxed and redistributed to buy the loyalty of their de-racinated constituents (natural loyalties having long since been purged so as to render the population tractable and easier to rule). But as the developed world rids itself of manufacturing by moving it to the developing world, it is betting its future on the ability of financial and business services to generate that surplus, and there is no evidence that an economy narrowed to business and financial services can reliably produce that surplus over extended periods of time. The developing world can develop its own business and financial services industries and leave us with capacity to produce intangible benefits which, unlike cars or computers, cannot be sold at any price.

At least in an industrial society, bankrupty can free the productive assets to begin producing again. In a financial services society, bankrupty obliterates the "table stakes" upon which the economy depends, crippling its institutions and taking them out of the international game. A turn of fashion could leave us with a pile of worthless debt obligations created by the financial services monster, which disintermediate the "savings" held by aging retirees who are then dependent on the obligations and promises of a government which pays in imaginary units which the cautious and prudent have long since abandoned.

It is all readily forseeable.

Gold -- Sharefin, 03:53:04 02/25/02 Mon

Newmont to let Normandy gold hedges expire

Newmont Mining Corp said on Monday it plans to let the gold hedge book of Normandy mining expire naturally.

When Newmont launched its takeover for Australia's largest gold miner last year, the company said it would seek opportunities in the market price cycle to exit the gold hedges at a profit.

However, gold prices have since risen sharply.

"We will simply deliver into the hedge book and dilute it down and just let it expire naturally," Bruce Hansen, chief financial officer told reporters.

Newmont currently has acceptances for about 84 percent of Normandy, which has about eight million ounces of gold sold forward.

G - great article & so optimistic -- Sharefin, 03:50:16 02/25/02 Mon

Mining directors strike while iron is hot

It has not escaped notice in London that some very senior directors at two of the big mining groups have been selling some shares in their companies. Some cynics suggest this is a sure sign that the executives don't expect prices to move much higher.

O'Higgins link (retry) -- g, 01:29:43 02/25/02 Mon


O'Higgins on gold and Dow -- g, 01:25:43 02/25/02 Mon

"'s not inconceivable" that the Dow and the price of gold could meet around the 6,000 mark, stocks falling from around 9700 and gold appreciating from around US$300 an ounce."

Cheep gold? -- Dave, 21:58:56 02/24/02 Sun

The study analyzed cost structures of existing mines as well as proposed new developments in 24 countries, which overall would account for 72% of current mined output.

The study found that the average cash cost of gold produced in 2001 of US$156 an ounce, was down 2.5% from US$160/oz in 2000, continuing a declining trend that started several years. In 1998, the average cash cost fell 15% to US$180/ oz.

"AME forecasts that average western world gold cash costs will have fallen to US$136/oz by 2006," it said.

The “Short Sellers” Nightmare -- Sharefin, 19:39:32 02/24/02 Sun

The “Short Sellers” Nightmare

Gold -- Sharefin, 07:45:59 02/24/02 Sun

Gold Confiscation & Emergency Banking Bill Of l933

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:07:10 02/24/02 Sun

Downturn aids in restoration of gold's luster

Is gold back in favor? Yes, for a while. But how long will it last?

Gold and gold mining stocks have a negative relationship to stocks. For that reason, they can act as a hedge against stock market losses during tense times. But you must have the patience of a saint to invest in gold. Precious metals mutual funds gained 18.8 percent last year. This year, they are up 22 percent. By contrast, the stock market is down 14 percent over the same period, according to Morningstar Inc., of Chicago.

Be advised the performance of gold can be fleeting. Over the past 10 years, gold funds have grown at a -3.2 percent annual rate. That tells you that most of the time, gold isn't a great investment. But it is a hedge in times of economic turmoil or high inflation. In 1978, when inflation and interest rates hit double-digits, gold funds gained more than 100 percent.

Experts say that gold or mutual funds that own mining stocks, should be no more than 5 percent of your total portfolio. That way you won't lose your shirt when gold is underperforming. On the upside, it should cushion losses in stocks and bonds when you need it - like today.

So what is the outlook for gold and mining stocks?

Joe Foster, manager of the Van Eck International Investment Gold Fund, believes that many economic and political changes internationally since the historic collapse of the Nasdaq stock market bubble in 2000 could make gold attractive for years.

On Feb. 7, gold bullion had a weekly close of more than $300 per ounce for the first time in two years after rallying sharply since Feb. 1. Bullion has been advancing since April 2001 as the general stock market has declined and interest rates, less inflation, have reached their lowest levels since 1993.

The rise above the psychologically important $300 level could mark a historic, positive change in investor sentiment toward bullion.

``There are a number of reasons behind recent moves in the gold price,'' says Foster. ``Of course, the political, economic and market uncertainty of recent months has been a catalyst. But there are a number of other contributing factors.''

Foster also cites less gold-hedging, a slowing of central bank sales and a surge in Japanese buying as positive for gold. Japanese gold imports jumped 45 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001. These factors may combine to make gold's recent surge different from other short-lived spikes seen in recent years.

Gold prices are determined by supply, demand and fear. During tense times or high inflation, people want to own gold. In other times, they don't.

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:05:21 02/24/02 Sun

911 affects Capital Gold

Abu Dhabi's gold traders are blaming the events of September 11th last year for a 40 per cent drop in business. Four traders have closed down, wholesalers are adopting payment 'up front' policies and the Capital Gold and Jewellery Group appears to be fragmenting, according to Tushar Patni, Chairman of the Group.

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:04:12 02/24/02 Sun

Suspension of gold raffles in UAE sought

While raffle-driven sales in the 'City of Gold' have been put on hold through a 'gentlemen's agreement' in Dubai, the neighbouring Sharjah and Abu Dhabi markets are said to be thriving on the strength of raffles.

Many gold outlets in Dubai feel unless the raffles are suspended in the other emirates - especially in Sharjah - Dubai's gold market will end up losing its share to its neighbours. Traders say sales in Gold Land and Gold Centre have declined 20 per cent after the raffles were suspended.

Gold -- Sharefin, 05:01:36 02/24/02 Sun

Gold mining cash costs fall marginally in 2001-AME

The cash cost of global gold production declined marginally, by 2.5 percent, to US$156 an ounce in 2001, according to a survey by Australia's AME Mineral Economics.

AME's survey, released on Sunday, canvassed gold ventures in 24 countries which account for 72 percent of world mined output.

AIG -- Sharefin, 02:04:24 02/24/02 Sun

AIG shares fall on SEC probe, industry loss fears

Enron -- Sharefin, 02:01:51 02/24/02 Sun

Former Employee Says Enron Manipulated California Power Market

Clinton Helped Finance Enron Projects Abroad, Maintained Close Ties to Lay

Lots more Enron articles 1/2 way down page:
The Power Marketing Association Online

Opps -- sharefin, 00:17:03 02/24/02 Sun

My mistake - that was the Yen-Gold chart
Here's the Yen-Silver chart:

Silver -- Sharefin, 00:08:47 02/24/02 Sun

And in the East, silver is breaking to new highs.
The three year downtrend has broken on volumes & price.
I guess that Japanese buyers prefer gold to silver but the chart and associated volumes are compelling.

Long term I like the COTs for silver.

Looking forwards I expect silver to outperform Palladium's prior bull run.

Some Weekend TA... FWIW... -- ThaiGold, 22:50:04 02/23/02 Sat

COMEX March Silver:
Expect it to continue trading within the narrow
grey-area within it's downward channel.
If it somehow breaks above the green resistance,
then look for it to try to close the GAP at 466:

COMEX April Gold:
Expect it to trade within the grey-area as it is
forming a modest downward channel. This may last
until the March 5th BoE Auction. Sub-288 is my guess:

I tend to discount the "290 support" level at this
time because there will be some big guns targeting
the POG to hammer it below 290 prior to BoE auction.
Once 290 breaks, a landslide of sell-stops below 290
are triggered. It could drop precipitously to or below
the red support line. Caveat Emptor.

No advice. Just imho. Subject to changes as the
next week's trading unfolds...

Dollar still in uptrend -- Giovanni Dioro, 21:18:53 02/23/02 Sat

Investment guru Gary Scott still thinks that the US Dollar is vulnerable, but writes that it may not weaken just yet. A knowledgeable friend wrote him that the dollar still looks strong for the time being.

Gary writes:

Will the U.S. Dollar Remain Strong
Here is a view that the dollar will remain least for a while.

Two recent messages (see and have shown reasons why the U.S. dollar, and what it may fall against. A recent message from a knowledgeable reader suggests we might wait before betting everything on a weak greenback. Here is what he wrote.
Rest of message

P.S. There is a wealth of information (reports) that gary genorously gives that can be found linked from this page linked above.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:34:25 02/23/02 Sat

Tongue-tied Placer Dome

Gold-mining Placer Dome is somewhat tongue-tied in its reporting of Venezuelan operations in an extensive 1999 year-end report issued yesterday in Vancouver by its newly-appointed president & CEO Jay Taylor.

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:30:38 02/23/02 Sat

From Wall St Follies

Gold -- Sharefin, 19:27:30 02/23/02 Sat

From Wall St Follies

Robert Chapman - Gold Commentary -- Sharefin, 17:21:18 02/23/02 Sat

Those who believe gold production will stay near current levels forever are sadly mistaken. In order for industry to replace gold reserves at current rates of production-15, five million ounce gold deposits have to found each year. How can that happen with virtually no exploration going on, particularly among the majors? There cannot be an increase in production, nor even maintenance of production for at least a minimum of five years.
The gold cartel capitulation is moving into high gear. Barrick Gold said that beginning this year one-half of its annual production will be sold on the spot market and the remainder will be hedged. Peter Munk and Randall Olyphant have partially capitulated. Barrick has sold its combined gold production, including Homestake's at $341 and ounce during 2001, a premium at that time of $70 over the $271 per ounce price. Barrick, which is closing seven mines, will produce 5.7 million ounces of gold in 2002 versus 6.1 million in 2001. They will continue to hedge 18.2 million ounces or 22% of their reserves. These hedging sales should have very limited impact on the market. We continue to recommend the sale of Barrick stock.
JP Morgan Chase's, John Bridges has reinstated coverage of the shares of Newmont Gold (NEM) with a buy rating, up from a previous rating of a long-term buy. His price target is $30 a share.
Rumor is that Barrick Gold lost about $8 million on Enron paper. Barrick is also being audited by the IRS on its offshore hedge books.
We are proud to say we have many Germans among our subscribers. The e-mails we have received from them tell us they believe as we do, that Germany is part of the elitist gold cabal. The Bundesbank announcement that Germany would like to sell gold in 2004 is like saying angels dance on pinheads. We believe if Edmund Stoiber is elected in September there will be no gold sales. Its announcement was absolutely ridiculous. A barefaced attempt to knock down the gold price. The elitists are desperate. They no longer can control the relentless upward move in gold. They know once gold breaks $330 an ounce it will be long gone. Take this opportunity to buy gold and silver coins, bullion and stocks. Our top recommendations are *Agnico-Eagle (AEM-NYSE) and *Goldcorp (GG-NYSE) then *Starfield Resources (SRRDR-CDNX), Candente Resources (DNT-CDNX) Clifton Mining (CFTN), Cabo Mining (CEV-CDNX), CUSAC Gold (CUSIF) Crystallex (KRY-ASE). This could be your last opportunity to get in cheap.

Tocom gold trading volume was one third higher then on the Comex on Thursday. Buying by the public continues strong and will continue strong at these bargain basement prices. As the cartel forces prices down they are only making it more attractive for buyers. Particularly when “Mr. Yen” Mr. Sakakibara, former minister of finance, says he sees the yen at 150-160 by year-end. Not very encouraging for a Japanese saver.
Last year's gold sales in Mexico were up 7% to 86 tons versus 2000. Fourth quarter sales were 38.7 tons, which was a new record for quarterly sales. This put Mexico in third place behind the US and China.
It is very important that you keep in mind that Germany's supposed anti-gold position of late is that of a socialist/Marxist government, which is like putty in the elitists' hands. In September, if Edmund Stoiber wins the chancellorship, announcements will be quite different. Herr Stoiber will not be a gold seller, nor will Italy and France be sellers. The complexion of the Bundesbank could also change dramatically. Even if Germany sold 10-20% of holdings, or 350 to 700 tons of 3,500 tons, it would be a drop in the bucket and it can't occur until 2004. Besides, how much gold have they already leased out? When Theo Waigel, former finance minister, talked about selling gold, the German citizens went ballistic. Selling gold to make up a short-term budget deficit is long term stupid, but what else would expect from the current government. Thirty years ago they were Leninist/Marxist nut cases running through the streets. This is exactly the type that elitists find so pliable. No matter what the elitists think or most of the public thinks, when they bring down the financial system gold and silver will be the currency of choice and everyone else will be holding worthless fiat currency. This misnomer, the media, Wall Street and government want us to believe that inflation is dead, thus, so is gold as a haven in times of tumult and that its been stripped of its historic financial role, is absolute rubbish. Gold is a haven in the flight to quality to escape depreciating fiat currencies and that role for gold will never end because it is no ones liability. Remember no one knows if there is any gold in Fort Knox or at the New York FED vaults that belongs to American citizens. The German announcement is another arrogant blatant attempt to rig and manipulate gold prices and it won't work.


Gold -- Sharefin, 16:47:42 02/23/02 Sat

Precious Metals Review: Mar Ends Week Above $293

Comex Apr gold tested and confirmed support in the $292.50 per ounce region late Friday morning before resurfacing above the $293 level on further trade short-covering, for a $293.50 end-of-week settlement.
Dealers said the end-of-week close above the week's lows laid an encouraging foundation for Apr coming into next week.
"We filled the chart gap down to the $290 area on Thursday and then found buyers coming through at $292.50 today, so we have some support in place below us when we start again next week," a Comex floor dealer explained.
Others agreed, saying Apr was now poised to enter a consolidatory phase of trading above the $290 mark, but will likely hold below resistance at around $296.
"If we continue to avert any further weakness, we're set for quiet rangebound stuff over the next couple of weeks, I'd say," according to one Comex dealer.

Gold -- Sharefin, 16:40:44 02/23/02 Sat

CFTC Commitments: Gold, Silver Looking Vulnerable

Gold -- Sharefin, 16:39:01 02/23/02 Sat

Erik Gebhard - Gold & Silver Review

Gold bulls are convinced that further major corporate implosions are looming, that the recession, weak Japanese and European markets, the war on terrorism, and the announced decrease in forward selling by producers are factors to press gold higher. Some also argue that if the Japanese decide to adopt a policy of devaluation, it could drive Yen holders into gold.

Bears would argue that central bank sales will keep prices pressured (just this week the Bundesbank inferred they will sell gold reserves, but later denied such a thing), that a weaker Nikkei this week didn't buoy gold, and that gold has basically lost its luster as a financial metal. In any case, if you took a bullish stance near the low 290 area, look to resistance near 298 as an initial target. Now that the gap near 291 was filled in we anticipate congestion before a move up, but as always throw in the towel quickly if the market doesn't cooperate.

Gold -- Sharefin, 16:36:00 02/23/02 Sat

Germany deserts the last line of defence for gold

The German Bundesbank's defection from the ranks of gold allies may persuade other bullion-laden central banks to dump some of the holdings once prized as a bulwark against financial and political meltdown.

Gold -- Sharefin, 16:33:26 02/23/02 Sat

Wayne's world defines a new gold standard

ON A cool spring evening in Dublin last year, two men sat down for a quiet dinner and laid the foundations for a deal that would upset the balance of power in the world's gold industry. One was Pierre Lassonde, a former Canadian corporate banker who has earned a reputation as one of goldmining's most canny investors through his royalties business, Franco-Nevada.

Opposite him was the large, bald, bespectacled figure of Wayne Murdy, chairman and chief executive of Denver's Newmont Mining. As Murdy recalls: “We were in Ireland for a conference on goldmining and one night we said, why don't we go out and have dinner. So we started talking and thinking about things we could do together.”

Gold -- Sharefin, 16:30:12 02/23/02 Sat

Gold Fields says gold can withstand central banks

The gold market is more resilient to central bank sales than before, despite Germany hinting this week that it may sell some reserves, the chairman of South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd said on Friday.

"We're in a business of long winters and short summers and this looks like the beginning of a new spring," Chris Thompson, told an analysts briefing.

Thompson said diminishing mine supplies and the gold price's recent break through a dismal long-term downtrend to two-year highs would give pause to central bankers considering offloading their stocks.

"In a falling gold market the political decision to sell gold, particularly when the alternative is the U.S. dollar that might rise and give interest, it's an easy decision to make."

"But in a rising gold's a tough decision for the banks to do and it will be interesting to see if the Bundesbank will do that," Thomson added.

"We've got the wind and the tide behind our backs," Thompson said, referring to the beneficial impact of higher, steadier gold prices and the weaker rand, which yields higher dollar-denominated returns on sales.

Prudent Bear -- Sharefin, 16:26:54 02/23/02 Sat

The Clan of Seven

From today's Wall Street Journal: “The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is examining J.P. Morgan Chase's accounting for commodity-related trades with Enron Corp., according to internal central-bank documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The trades being reviewed by the Federal Reserve appear to relate to an offshore entity set up by the old Chase Manhattan Bank a decade ago through which it came to do substantial business with the once-mighty energy company. The big volume of trades between the offshore operation, called Mahonia Ltd., and Enron surfaced weeks ago in litigation connected with Enron's bankruptcy-court filing, raising questions as to whether Mahonia was a vehicle for loans disguised as trades that helped Enron draw a misleading financial picture for investors.”

Today from Bloomberg - “J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., the second-largest U.S. bank, has suddenly become a growing risk for bond investors. The cost of insuring J.P. Morgan Chase's $43 billion of notes and bonds against default more than doubled in the past month…The price for default protection rose to $80,000 for $10 million of J.P. Morgan Chase debt from $35,000 on Jan. 28, according to Morgan Stanley. At that price, the highest since the bank was formed in a January 2001 merger, investors are paying about twice as much as for comparable insurance on the bonds of Citigroup Inc., the world's largest financial-services company, and Bank One Corp., the sixth-largest U.S. bank.”

Also from today's Wall Street Journal: “Two hedge funds run by prominent money manager Kenneth Lipper were forced to slash the value of their portfolios by about $315 million, following heavy losses in the convertible-bond market. The losses, representing a decline of as much as 40% in one of the funds since the end of November, sparked selling in both the stock and bond markets Thursday as investors worried that Mr. Lipper would be forced to dump investments to raise money…The firm said it was forced to slash the value of its holdings after concluding that the value of its securities had tumbled and wouldn't recover anytime soon. That problem was made worse by the fact that the firm focused on riskier and relatively illiquid securities that were difficult to price accurately...”

So we really are at critical crossroads. Much of corporate finance is in tatters, with many major companies faced with the harsh reality of being locked out of the commercial paper market. Confidence is waning. It appears the banks are running for cover, a major blow for market liquidity and for structured finance generally where they provide key backup Credit lines and other guarantees. From this desperate vantage point, the storm clouds could not be more ominous, with the ferocious gales starting to blow and the rain now coming down in buckets.

But it's a very strange and different world than what we've known. If you turn the other way and walk a few steps, the sun shines warm and bright. The flowers simply could not be more beautiful, as they dance with the comfortable warm breeze; the birds chirp and sing like there's not a care in the world. Indeed, “profits” for The Clan of Seven - Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the FHLB, MBIA, Ambac, FGIC, and FSA - have never beamed so bright or appealingly. And to even contemplate the possibility that any one of these pristine risk managers could lose their Triple-A ratings, well that's sacrilege. So what, in the grand scheme of things, if we've got a few tens of billions of corporate debt turning sour? With the Clan's backing and the moral support from the rating agencies (and surely after WTC we have no doubt as to unconditional aid from the Fed and Treasury), somewhere in the vicinity of $5 trillion of securities are carefully protected from harm's way. And with no other Clan anywhere in the world possessing the capacity for creating endless quantities of top-rated securities and liquid markets in which to trade them, it does at times appear a wonderful U.S. monopoly of secure prosperity. That is, however, as long as you don't turn around and gaze in the direction of the dark clouds - if you don't look, you're safe from what might be a frightening glimpse of a forming funnel cloud. Just stare at the flowers and listen intently to the birds - stare at the flowers and listen to the birds - the flowers and the birds... And don't dare look at the true wherewithal hidden by all by the Clan's pomp and circumstance, or ponder their strategies, or enquire how they and their cohorts will react in time of crisis.

For years the unquestioned power of the Clan has been a thing of myth and legend. We don't even like to contemplate the ramifications for when the sorry truth is exposed. In truth, buried in a sea of complexity and obfuscation is a rather simple bottom line: there is an egregious and growing amount of systemic risk domiciled in a limited number of fragile hands. And while risk is expanding exponentially, the number of hands happy to carry it is in marked decline. No one ever thought it would be like this.

Snipped from The Rapper -- Sharefin, 01:03:17 02/23/02 Sat

Gartman's Gold Chain Letter I know some readers are very familiar with the bullish case for gold, and no one has done a better job of delineating those points than my good friend Jim Grant, but in his letter today, Dennis Gartman lobbied rather effectively on behalf of the "why now" case. Rather than giving you a lot of the fundamentals, he describes the very powerful change in psychology that I, too, believe is under way. Rap readers should take all the more note of his bullish remarks, since they come from someone who has been correctly bearish for the last 20 years. So, for those of you who are not familiar with why one ought to consider gold and why one might want to consider it now, herewith his reasoning:

Friday Is Metal Health Day "Most interesting, however, is the strength in the precious metals, with gold staging a very strong performance, finding support as it must in recent sessions, despite what seems to be overwhelmingly bearish news from Germany earlier this week that the government there will be a supplier of gold to the market in size when the British and Swiss gold sales are finished. We understand the arguments put forth by many in the gold market that Mr. Welteke's announcement is stunningly bearish, for by announcing potential German Bundesbank gold sales, he has opened the door for gold sales by other European central banks in the future, also. Simply put, if the Germans shall be selling gold, what then of the Belgians, of the Italians, of the French, et al? If the most conservative central bank is to be a seller of its gold, what then of the more 'liberal' central bankers? Certainly, their only course of action shall be to line up behind the Swiss when they are done, and follow the German lead."

Jeepers Creepers, Where'd You Get Those Seepers? Gartman continues: "This is the argument that very knowledgeable friends in the industry have put forth, and their argument is certainly a reasonable, even a powerful one. However, the investment climate in the world is changing. The great bull market in equities that has marked the world since the early 1980s may have ended two years ago, and if that argument is correct, then money continually seeping from the equities markets will find its way to other investments. If it finds its way to gold, it shall dwarf the gold sales that the central bankers are able to muster."

Of Teutonic Sales & Tectonic Gales Finally, he says, "We have hesitated turning bullish on gold for a very long while. Our clients and our friends have always, always, always heard us decry gold as an investment since the 1980s. But the market has refused to forge new lows; it has held, and it is showing signs of vigor. Holding and now rallying in the face of the German announcement is most impressive. We have always wondered how the market would respond to a concerted effort by the central bankers to 'talk' gold lower. Now it appears that the market is willing to take the bankers on. We sense a tidal shift in sentiment, and if so, it is a very long time in the coming."

a page worth saving -- $hifty, 20:37:46 02/22/02 Fri


"The general misconception is that any statute passed by legislators bearing the appearance of law constitutes the law of the land. The U.S. Constitution is the supreme law of the land, and any statue, to be valid, must be in agreement. It is impossible for both the Constitution and a law violating it to be valid; one must prevail. This is succinctly stated as follows: The general rule is that an unconstitutional statute, though having the form and name of law, is in reality no law, but is wholly void, and ineffective for any purpose; since unconstitutionality dates from the time of its enactment, and not merely from the date of the decision so branding it. An unconstitutional law, in legal contemplation, is as inoperative as if it had never been passed. Such a statute leaves the question that it purports to settle just as it would be had the statute not been enacted." "Since an unconstitutional law is void, the general principals follow that it imposes no duties, confers no rights, creates no office, bestows no power or authority on anyone, affords no protection, and justifies no acts performed under it.... A void act cannot be legally consistent with a valid one. An unconstitutional law cannot operate to supersede any existing valid law. Indeed, insofar as a statute runs counter to the fundamental law of the land, it superseded thereby. No one is bound to obey an unconstitutional law and no courts are bound to enforce it." Sixteenth American Jurisprudence, Second Edition, Section 177

David Morgan Audio -- Sharefin, 20:30:12 02/22/02 Fri

Weekly Audio Report

Not Gold but is it related -- Sharefin, 18:28:01 02/22/02 Fri

In 1983, 50 corporations controlled the vast majority of all news media in the U.S. At the time, Ben Bagdikian was called "alarmist" for pointing this out in his book, The Media Monopoly. In his 4th edition, published in 1992, he wrote "in the U.S., fewer than two dozen of these extraordinary creatures own and operate 90% of the mass media" - controlling almost all of America's newspapers, magazines, TV and radio stations, books, records, movies, videos, wire services and photo agencies. He predicted then that eventually this number would fall to about half a dozen companies. This was greeted with skepticism at the time. When the 6th edition of The Media Monopoly was published in 2000, the number had fallen to six. Since then, there have been more mergers and the scope has expanded to include new media like the Internet market. More than 1 in 4 Internet users in the U.S. now log in with AOL Time-Warner, the world's largest media corporation.

From Undernews

They also run the story GOING FOR THE GOLD

REP. RON PAUL of Texas has introduced legislation to curb the ability of the president or the treasury secretary to manipulate worldwide gold prices. The "Monetary Freedom and Accountability Act" restores proper congressional authority over gold policy by requiring that body to vote its approval before the president or secretary buys or sells gold. "The Constitution grants authority over monetary policy specifically to Congress alone, not to the executive or the administration," Paul stated. "Yet Congress has neglected its duty for decades, and now our foolish fiat money system is run without challenge exclusively by unelected Treasury and Fed bureaucrats. As a result, the Treasury has been able to engage in the buying and selling of gold to manipulate the worldwide market price.

The Gold Antitrust Action Committee has uncovered evidence suggesting that the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, operating through the Exchange Stabilization Fund and in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, have been working to deflate the price of gold.

Sourced from Ron Paul

Gold -- Sharefin, 18:18:17 02/22/02 Fri

Straight Talk on Mining

Shell -- Sharefin, 18:16:40 02/22/02 Fri

Sorry but I never looked into the numbers.

First we've got to get past the old highs.
After that it's anyones guess.

projected fib. gold scenario off forbes chart -- shell, 16:19:38 02/22/02 Fri

you are forgetting that from 1919 to 1973 gold was forced to stay at $35 per oz

can you still calculate $3133 from that

not criticizing-justcurious

Crashin' Stocks still Crashin' --, 15:39:17 02/22/02 Fri

Gold Chart - 2 years --, 15:30:29 02/22/02 Fri

Very nice and well defined uptrend$GOLD,uu[m,a]waclynay[de][pc13,50!d20,2][iUo14!Lh14,3]&pref=G

Gary Scott on Gold as an alternative -- Giovanni Dioro, 15:02:57 02/22/02 Fri

Gary Scott touts Gold as an alternative to a falling dollar.
(He has a free newsletter-type email to which you can subscribe at his homepage)

Will the Dollar Fall?
Or should we say why gold could rise?

Dear International Friend,

A recent message pointed out seven reason why the U.S. dollar could fall. But a big question is what will the dollar fall against? One thing may well be gold. One reason gold has remained depressed is that many governments, as they have demonetized their currencies, have instructed their central banks to sell gold.

There is one theory that this will cause a surge in the gold price as this temporary supply in the market is depleted. One reader feels this is every much the case as he wrote...
Rest of Article

Interesting read - enjoy -- Prometheus, 11:42:14 02/22/02 Fri

Here's an excerpt:
Consider the Telecom bubble's latest revelation, after the sound of hollow laughter rang around the transcontinental skeins of "dark fibre," as the SEC investigation of Global Crossing's finances focussed on "Indefeasable Rights of Use" agreements, or, more colloquially, "capacity swaps."

This scam seems to work as follows:

I run a small hotel in a mountain resort, as do you, my neighbor. Business has been bad this year since the recession hit our overseas clients, what with their accounting worries and all, so we both have lots of unbooked rooms and little prospect of a passing tour party to occupy them.

Then I have a bright idea: I will rent the ten spare rooms you have, for the next ten years, if you will return the favor to me. Moreover, I will recognize nine-tenths of the value of my multiyear "sale" to you now, but offset it with only one year's worth of costs. You will do likewise.

No cash will change hands, but you and I will have substantially increased both sales and profits, using these so-called "hollow" swaps

What's more, when next we meet in the local chamber of commerce, we will both be able to boast to our local bank manager how life in the hotel business has never been so good!

Here's the link:
Dishonest Money

Old but Gold -- Sharefin, 04:38:43 02/22/02 Fri


An analysis of the Forbes gold chart on the basis of Fibonacci Number theory and ratios tells us that if we measure the distance from the 1919 low to the high of Wave 3, and multiply that number by 1.618 ($1,764 X 1.618), we get a number that should be a close approximation of the length of Wave 5. When we do this arithmetic, we obtain a number of $2,854. When we add this number to the low of Wave 4, we arrive at a gold price objective of $3,131.

JP Morgan -- Sharefin, 03:53:06 02/22/02 Fri

Traders Edgy About Morgan Chase Loans

Executives at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and some analysts say the financial picture at the nation's second-largest bank is just fine. Investors, however, are far from convinced.

The bank's stock has fallen about 25 percent in the last two months, closing at $30.21 today. And on the bond market, yields on the bank's $2 billion worth of notes maturing in February 2011 have risen to 6.47 percent from 6.16 percent in the past month.

Investor concerns include the bank's exposure on loans to Enron Corp., Kmart Corp., Global Crossing Ltd. and Argentina, all of which have defaulted on their debts; large potential losses on loans to Qwest Communications International Inc. and Tyco International; and its heavy reliance on complicated derivatives investments and use of off-balance-sheet financing.

J.P. Morgan Chase held a conference call with analysts today to rebut fears about the multiple exposures and to address questions about possible ratings downgrades, a potential cut in dividend payments to stockholders, and off-balance sheet activities.

"I don't think there is any issue at all about the overall financial strength of the company," she said, adding that no dividend cuts were planned.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:53:36 02/22/02 Fri

World Gold Council on a gold rebranding spree

World Gold Council (WGC) is currently on a major campaign aimed at rebranding gold jewellery focussing on the 18 to 30 years age group of fashion concious Indian womenfolk.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:52:17 02/22/02 Fri

Agnico Eagle announces record gold production and results for 2001

Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited today reported significantly improved operating results in 2001 and an increase in mineral reserve and mineral resource at LaRonde.

Highlights for the year include:

- Record annual gold production of 234,860 ounces in 2001, an increase of 35 percent over the previous year.

- Declining total cash costs to produce an ounce of gold in 2001 of $155, an 18 percent decrease from the previous year.

- Record high combined gold mineral reserve and mineral resource at LaRonde of 8.5 million ounces, a nine percent increase over the previous year.

- Exploration identifies potential new gold zone east of LaRonde on the El Coco Property.

- Strongest balance sheet in the Company's over 30-year history with over $130 million currently available in cash and credit lines, with three major financings completed in the last nine months.

``We are extremely pleased with the steady progress we have made in the past year increasing production and expanding our already large gold deposit'', said Sean Boyd, President and Chief Executive Officer. ``The LaRonde Mine performed very well in its first full year at 5,000 tons of ore per day, setting the stage for the expansion to 7,000 tons per day by the fourth quarter of 2002. All of this puts us in a very good position to continue to create value at LaRonde as our low cost production growth will continue over the next few years and our stepped up exploration program is expected to add gold mineral reserve'', added Mr. Boyd.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:50:49 02/22/02 Fri

Gold sales set to be subjected to tighter constraints

The Bank of England's gold auction on March 5 will be its last until a pact capping major European central bank sales ends in 2004, when the banks are expected to jockey to unload more reserves into the market.

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:48:45 02/22/02 Fri

S. Africa Stocks Rise; Gold Miners Advance on Price of Metal

Gold -- Sharefin, 00:47:27 02/22/02 Fri

Gold Stock Shines In Johannesburg

South African gold stocks bounced up at the start of Friday trade after a rocky week as the bullion price pulled up from the $290 mark.
The resources index also firmed nearly one percent, as the world's largest platinum producer, Angloplat, edged up 320 cents to 456 after a sharp reversal since its year results on Tuesday.
The gold index leapt almost three percent with gains across the board. AngloGold, one of the world's largest bullion producers, also clawed back a week of heavy losses to be six rand higher at 526 rand.
It's rival and South Africa's number two gold miner, Gold Fields jumped 4.6 percent to 91 rand as the morning's most actively traded stock.
"The gold price is bit of a runner this morning. The gold shares will go a bit better. They've also come in for a bit of stick in recent days," said a trader.
The financial index couldn't quite break out of its negative start, dipping in and out of positive territory. The index was down 0.18 percent at 0717 GMT.
Of the banking stocks, only Nedcor and Standard Bank showed gains by adding 60 cents and 10 cents respectively.

Worth a repeat - from the far side -- Sharefin, 00:29:24 02/22/02 Fri

Mr David Morgan made the following comment in his excellent private newsletter:

"I pulled this from LeMetropole Cafe where some essay's from Silver-Investor are featured. Jim Sinclair was very accurate during the last bull market in the precious metals. It was a wonderful experience to hear him speak in 1979. What Mr. Sinclair has to say about the derivative situation should be noted":

MR. GOLD of the late seventies and in 1980, Jim Sinclair, sees it this way:

Dear Bill
All the Bundesbank has accomplished is to give greater trigger strength to the $305 level of gold, a close above which is destined to occur. A close above this level followed by one day over $305 and the market will be off to $354. A Close above $354 will bankrupt the derivatives. It is not satisfactory for a producer to have a balanced hedge book because contracts will fail selectively or collectively. Any hedge book is a Nuclear Enron Device ticking down to zero. GATA's good work has publicized the existence of a cartel to keep gold from rising above $305. This is so transparent that the Bundesbank's action today risks communicating to Dr. No and Hung Fat, the great unnamed market manipulators that the gold derivative contract is terminal and the gold market could reach unspeakable highs.

The Bundesbank's efforts and the close at $304.60 is so transparent that its conspiratorial purposes are undeniable. When the close comes over $305, the gold demand will suck down ever ounce any central banks wants to sell. The Bundesbank underestimates the sarcasm of the free markets. Gold in this 24 hours of trading was moving back to $300 when the trading desk at the Bundesbank called their superiors to inform them that they were not able to hold gold down with selective technical selling. Then the bank spoke. Now the transparent efforts to talk gold lower will only result in taking gold higher once it breaks what is now become a line drawn in sand at $305. The apparent fear the Bundesbank and its clients have of a market challenge to the derivative vehicle translates into the weakness of the so called hedgers activities. Gold may go much higher than I have been willing to consider.

Best Regards,
[End snippet]

Timing of gold's rise -- Jack, 20:40:25 02/21/02 Thu

Mr. Morgan:
What is your best estimate, baring unforseen calamity,of a rise in gold above $305.00. That is, are we expecting something in terms of weeks, months, this year or next year.
It would appear that your guess is more educated than some of the others I have read.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - Keeping the Bubble -- Giovanni Dioro, 18:19:16 02/21/02 Thu

I don't fully understand what these companies do, and like the Federal Reserve, I don't think common folk are supposed to.

However, these 2 organizations have done more to keep the real estate bubble going. They are able to borrow directly from the Fed, just like the US Treasury. So that they do (borrow unlimitedly from the Fed) and then they pour the money into the real estate market.

Whenever real estate lending gets tight, these 2 companies step in, and loosen it up. I think they can either directly purchase real estate or they purchase mortgages off of the nation's banks, which cleans up the banks' balance sheets and allows more lending.

Lenny's corner -- Sharefin, 17:52:14 02/21/02 Thu


I must admit that early this morning, I was more than a bit scared that the current sell-off in the precious metals would continue lower. As New York opened, gold prices immediately tested the technical support level at about $290.00 in spot, and silver simultaneously was flirting with the $4.35 level basis the March contract. It was well known in the market that large sell stops were just inches away, which certainly could have propelled prices sharply lower in a hurry. But today was one of those days where events occurred as they should. Gold and silver immediately saw excellent professional buying at the support levels and then rallied the rest of the day. It was most impressive and I would wager that most, if not all, of the danger of much lower prices is now over.

Please understand that I still do not see a runaway market in either gold or silver at this time. But, the declines seen over the past few days due to adverse news, adverse technical formations, and an adverse composition of the market, are now probably now over. I would guess we will revert back to a trading market, where dips should be bought, and rallies sold.

Platinum and palladium were both higher today and they appear to have a bit of a bid to them. Traders who follow our recommendations should look below for a change in our opinion.

During the past 10 days, the Swiss National Bank has picked up their selling pace a bit and are currently selling almost 1 ton of gold a day, up a bit from their average of 1/2 to 2/3 of a ton per diem. Not a great surprise that they would increase sales as gold prices were higher during this period of time.

The last auction by the Bank of England occurs on March 5th and I am quite sure that the financial press will absolutely pounce on the fact that the "Old Lady of Threadneedle Street" lost an ungodly amount of money by selling their gold at the lows of the market. The losses generated could approach a cool $1 Billion USD.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:45:14 02/21/02 Thu

NY Precious Metals Review: Gold, Silver Creep Higher

Comex Apr gold slowly climbed from
early lows in the $290.50 cents per ounce area to above the $293 level by
settlement over the course of trade Thursday.
Dealers said a lessening in speculative long liquidation plus a lightening
in the recent aggressive trade short selling accommodated the lift in prices,
as did light but steady trade short covering through late morning.
Apr's ability to hold above the $290 mark over the coming days will be
critical in determining gold's outlook for the coming weeks, sources said. If
a fall below the $290 mark can be avoided, gold will be able to build a base
at that level before staging further probes to the upside, some argue.
They said that repeated displays of robustness above $290 will in time
attract further buying interest and allow for renewed attempts to overcome
$300 resistance in a sustained fashion.
However, even slight slips below $290 could automatically trigger resting
sell orders pre-placed around $289.50 and $288.00 which could generate
inexorable downside momentum that could quickly wipe out the recent gains.
"We're pretty delicately balanced at the moment. It could really go either
way, but the longer we stay above $290 the better our chances are of seeing
$300 again soon," said an analyst.
Any break to the downside is expected to encounter some support at $286,
$285 and $282, while to the upside resistance is seen in place at $296 and
Mar silver followed the same path as gold, clawing back above the $4.41
level after having dipped to $4.37 early on. Sources said silver was also
similarly poised for either another bout of weakness or consolidatory trade
followed by further stretches higher.
"Silver is pretty much tied at the hip to gold at the moment, so whatever
one does you can pretty much bet the other did the same," noted on source.
On the Platinum Group Metals side activity remained stunted with both Apr
platinum and Mar palladium rarely venturing far from the $470 and $370 levels
respectively throughout.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:42:03 02/21/02 Thu

Iraq scare pushes up gold

COMEX gold rebounded in a safe-haven reflex on Thursday, but ended off its highs after the US military denied market rumours that US troops were in Iraq, traders said.

"The guys on the floor called me and said 'Is this true? Is this true?' I said I hadn't heard anything about it. Then there was a denial. That (the rumours) may have helped a little bit..." said a broker adding that the real reason for the bounce was that several days of selling had exhausted itself.

"We held support yesterday and this morning and that was about it," he said.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:40:40 02/21/02 Thu

War rumors lift oil, gold claws back

From the Far Side -- Sharefin, 17:36:42 02/21/02 Thu

Jim Sinclair on Gold
Posted by: Ag_Eagle

Mr David Morgan made the following comment in his excellent private newsletter:"I pulled this from LeMetropole Cafe where some essay's from Silver-Investor are featured. Jim Sinclair was very accurate during the last bull market in the precious metals. It was a wonderful experience to hear him speak in 1979. What Mr. Sinclair has to say about the derivative situation should be noted":

MR. GOLD of the late seventies and in 1980, Jim Sinclair, sees it this way: Dear Bill All the Bundesbank has accomplished is to give greater trigger strength to the $305 level of gold, a close above which is destined to occur. A close above this level followed by one day over $305 and the market will be off to
$354. A Close above $354 will bankrupt the derivatives. It is not satisfactory for a producer to have a balanced hedge book because contracts will fail selectively or collectively.
Any hedge book is a Nuclear Enron Device ticking down to zero. GATA's good work has publicized the existence of a cartel to keep gold from rising above $305. This is so transparent that the Bundesbank's action today risks communicating to Dr. No and Hung Fat, the great unnamed market manipulators that the
gold derivative contract is terminal and the gold market could reach unspeakable highs.
The Bundesbank's efforts and the close at $304.60 is so transparent that its conspiratorial purposes are undeniable. When the close comes over $305, the gold demand will suck down ever ounce any central banks wants to
sell. The Bundesbank underestimates the sarcasm of the free markets. Gold in this 24 hours of trading was moving back to $300 when the trading
desk at the Bundesbank called their superiors to inform them that they were not able to hold gold down with selective technical selling. Then the bank spoke. Now the transparent efforts to talk gold lower will only result in taking gold higher once it breaks what is now become a line drawn in sand at $305. The apparent fear the Bundesbank and its clients have of a market challenge to the derivative vehicle translates into the weakness of the so
called hedgers activities. Gold may go much higher than I have been willing to consider. Best Regards, Jim[End snippet]

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:33:42 02/21/02 Thu

Gold producers struggle to keep up

Gold producer costs will drop by another $20 an ounce by 2006 as aging, high-cost production is shut down and replaced by cheaper gold from third-world countries. A report released yesterday by research house AME Mineral Economics says this year's average cash cost figure of $156 an ounce across the world's major Western gold producers should drop to $136 an ounce by 2006.

Gold -- Sharefin, 17:32:06 02/21/02 Thu

Gold now costs just $156/oz to produce - report

Sydney-based AME Mineral Economics has released its annual Gold Production Cost Report, analysing the cost structures of gold-mines and proposed new developments in 24 countries.
These operations account for over 72% of current mined output.

Cash costs of gold production averaged $156/oz last year, a small (2,5%) decline from the $160/oz mean value recorded by the same mine sample in 2000, and less than the 9% fall posted a year ago.

The average cash cost for the Western World gold-mines surveyed has now fallen by 27% in real terms over the four years since 1997.

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